USC Game Day In Corvallis — Dam the Beavers!

USC vs. Oregon State Prediction: Undefeated Trojans, Beavers Get Offensive in Corvallis

Kane Webb (Athlon Sports —  Pac-12’s top-scoring offenses could produce plenty of fireworks in Reser Stadium.

Saturday night’s matchup between USC and Oregon State features a matchup of undefeated teams looking to help raise the Pac-12’s national profile. No one is that surprised the Trojans are 3-0, not after the arrival of head coach Lincoln Riley and quarterback Caleb Williams (13) from Oklahoma (by different means). But the Beavers are 3-0 for the first time since 2014, more evidence that this program is trending upward under head coach Jonathan Smith.

Three games into the 2022 season, USC and Oregon State are Nos. 1 and 2 in the Pac-12 in scoring offense, both averaging more than 45 points per game. Does that mean these teams are on the same level? That’s what Saturday night is all about. But they have played a common opponent already – Fresno State. In Week 2, the Bulldogs from the Mountain West gave the Beavers a fight with Oregon State winning 35-32 with a walk-off touchdown. A week later, the Trojans overwhelmed Fresno State 45-17 in the Coliseum.

Historically, USC has dominated this series, holding a commanding 63-12-4 lead but Oregon State won last season’s meeting 45-27 in Los Angeles and its four other victories over the Trojans this century have all come in Corvallis (2000, ’06, ’08, ’10). So what’s the takeaway here? That while USC may appear to have all the momentum, with Riley seemingly pushing all the right buttons and Williams leading one of the nation’s most explosive offenses, the Trojans better not take Smith’s Beavers lightly.

And if there wasn’t already enough on-field intrigue attached to this game there’s plenty of attention being paid to it off the field as well…

Call it the Riley factor or whatever you want, but there are going to be a lot of people watching this game despite the late kickoff, and that’s great news for everyone involved, especially the Pac-12.

No. 7 USC at Oregon State

Kickoff: Saturday, Sept. 24 at 9:30 p.m. ET
TV: Pac-12 Networks
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: USC -6
Tickets: As low as $93 on SITickets.com*

When USC Has the Ball

USC’s ability to punish teams on offense has been the subject of an absurd number of columns. It’s all too easy to point to Williams’ relationship with wide receiver (and fellow transfer, via Pitt) Jordan Addison as a focal point for the success. But it also means that a ton of this success seems predicated upon the fact that Addison can’t be stopped and has remained healthy. Defenses can’t do anything about the health thing (at least not ethically), but you can force Williams to beat you without relying on Addison. That may be Oregon State defensive coordinator Trent Bray’s best hope, but easier said than done.

Running backs (and fellow transfers) Travis Dye and Austin Jones seem to be getting more and more confident within Riley’s offense with each passing week. Dye also understands that his job is to keep Williams upright and everything else is secondary. As Dye put it in a video for USC, “no block-y, no rock-y.” This is the exact attitude the backs are going to need as the Trojans enter Pac-12 play. It’s no secret that defenses will make pressuring and getting hits on Williams, whether he’s inside or outside of the pocket, a priority.

But merely slowing down Addison may be a tough enough task in and of itself. He’s got 18 catches for 295 yards and five touchdowns through his first three games in a Trojans uniform. Yes, Williams has plenty of other weapons at his disposal, but only one is a Biletnikoff Award winner and Addison is showing everyone why. Riley is plenty creative enough to get Addison the ball and he’ll make the most of every opportunity. He’s one of the few players in the country that can make a massive impact on a game, even if he doesn’t get that many (or any) touches.

When Oregon State Has the Ball

As impressive as Williams has been for USC in the early going, Chance Nolan has performed similarly for the Beavers. Through three games, he is completing 62.7 percent of his passes for 746 yards and seven touchdowns with two interceptions. Nolan’s steady play is a big reason why Oregon State is averaging nearly 46 points and 470 yards per game.

As well as Nolan and the offense have fared, the Beavers probably don’t want to get into a shootout with the Trojans. Oregon State loves to play spoiler with USC when it has teams that seem to be dark-horse national championship contenders. Beaver fans will fondly recall the fall of 2008 when Mark Sanchez choked away a Thursday night game in Reser Stadium to go on to lose in the BCS National Championship Game to a Florida team that lost that very same weekend at home to an Ole Miss team that finished with the same exact record as the Beavers because… SEC.

High-scoring or not, a big game from Nolan is how Oregon State knocks off the Trojans again. Let him distribute the football to quality receivers in Tre’Shaun Harrison, Anthony Gould. Excellent tight end Luke Musgrave is injured. If Damien Martinez and Deshaun Fenwick can provide additional support through the run game, then the recipe for another upset (think the win over No. 15 Oregon in 2020) is there. Keep it close, keep USC guessing where you’re going with the ball, punish the defense on the ground, and enjoy the pressure getting to your opponent.

Final Analysis

There’s a certain amount of fumble luck that USC has enjoyed so far this season. You can certainly win a lot of games with 10 turnovers gained and zero lost. Perfection in this category, however, is highly unsustainable. The Trojans can and should win the turnover battle in most of their games, but it’s nearly impossible to avoid turning the ball over an entire season and if Oregon State can get one or two takeaways while cashing in their opportunities, Reser Stadium will do its part to help fuel the Beavers to an upset.

That’s not to say USC is overlooking the Beavers in the first place. But a team doesn’t need to be overlooked to get the job done, and Oregon State is a quality team in its own right. The Trojans are certainly talented enough to cover the spread (and then some), but this team also is “new” and still unproven enough (first Pac-12 game) that it could wilt under pressure. Not sure if it’s the latter but I do think that the Trojans’ fumble luck comes to an end on Saturday night, and so does their unblemished record.

Prediction: Oregon State 44, USC 42

athlonsports.com

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RialtoTrojan
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September 25, 2022 9:47 am

Apparently Riley’s human after all. I would have pulled Williams for a minimum of one series after the fourth or fifth shanked pass. I was beside myself due to the horrible quarterback play and yet Riley knew something I didn’t. I openly thought Williams was high as in Todd Marinovich high last night. Williams was clearly rattled, but Riley knew better. something Riley said right after taking the SC job about looking a player in the eyes and knowing the player was there to play, came back to me last night. He went to the bench before the last series… Read more »

Steveg
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September 25, 2022 8:35 am

I went to bed soon after the game still pumped up but exhausted also. I keep thinking what was up with Caleb last night. Had he been a little more relaxed and dialed in I do think USC would have sustained a couple of drives, perhaps to score again. Riley knows how to deal with him better than anyone. I was wanting a Qb change, bring in Miller for a series just to give Caleb a different perspective. It was great to see Domani Jackson get to play and contribute, as well as Bryson Shaw getting into the game. Tuli… Read more »

Last edited 2 months ago by Steveg
USC1988
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September 24, 2022 10:48 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

Those Classic USC road win are back !

USC1988
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September 24, 2022 10:48 pm
Reply to  USC1988

wins

alfa1
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September 25, 2022 4:21 am
Reply to  Allen Wallace

Looks like our potent scoring machine…sputtered.
The Grinch Troops saved the day. Kudos to the Defense.
I doubt the Beavers finish high in the final year end standing, but…they are always up for the SC game. Playing in the “Potato Salad Stadium” has proven to be tough always, just ask Sanchez!

TrojanRJJ
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September 25, 2022 8:35 am
Reply to  alfa1

Or OJ Simpson! Prior to tonight, 4 top 10 rated teams had played in Corvallis. Prior to tonight, 3 had lost.

UtahTrojan
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September 25, 2022 11:47 am
Reply to  Allen Wallace

Still amazed that we did. Must admit I hit a panic level due to ghosts of Helton past. But I also think the game was closer than it needed to be because LR was trying to save the Heisman for CW.

Petero
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September 24, 2022 10:29 pm

D-E-F-E-N-S-E

Travis Dye offensive MVP so far this season

Last trip to Corvallis for USC football we are likely to see,,,

I am done with Taco Bell and Tums commercials…

Game ball for Alex Grinch as well…

Is the phrase Bush-Push Trade marked”

HOF19
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September 24, 2022 10:15 pm

Got a feeling LR gonna wanting to see SC have their best practice week of the season (up to this point at least) this coming week Have a GREAT night all …..FightOn !!!!!

Steveg
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September 24, 2022 10:09 pm

Nobody thought USC could hold OSU to 14 points. Nobody thought OSU could hold USC to 17. The unders won tonight. I lost my butt because USC didn’t cover.

TrojanRJJ
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September 24, 2022 10:05 pm

I am calling it a night. It was a great game. The team won a game it should have lost. On the road against a very tough opponent. Hats off to the OL who played a great game; Caleb had an awful game, but when it counted, he was there. So instead of the Bush push, we have the Williams push. It was needed to win this game. And, I think we can stop worrying about Alex Grinch. His D was lights out tonight. It was the best D game I have seen by an SC team since PC left.… Read more »

Last edited 2 months ago by TrojanRJJ
alfa1
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September 25, 2022 4:28 am
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You have to get that PAC12 South title business out of your head….!

TrojanRJJ
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September 25, 2022 8:34 am
Reply to  alfa1

I know, one game at a time.

HOF19
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September 24, 2022 10:04 pm

So some said SC has not dealt with much adversity this year ….This is just me but there seemed to be some adversity tonight .

ATL D.D.S.
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September 24, 2022 10:04 pm

Good night, all. Nice to see a SC team with guts and simply didn’t quit the fight. They were behind on all the scorecards, so they needed a knock out punch from nowhere to win in the 15th round. So un-helton-like!😎

TrojanMPA90
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September 24, 2022 10:15 pm
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We are definitely over Helton now.

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September 24, 2022 10:01 pm

To win a game this ugly is huge. If Caleb and the offense can somehow return to form. And the defense can keep coming up big when needed, this game will certainly be at as turning point. Hopefully the swagger that got into Caleb and the offense head can be tempered a bit and lead to more hard work and focus. Looks like all of that late Beaver money by the sharks was right on. I’ll take it! No doubt about where Smith and the OSU program is at. They can play with anyone. Hopefully they don’t lose him

HOF19
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September 24, 2022 9:59 pm

Well some media are calling this entire Saturday in college football today > “The Day of Survival “.

HOF19
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September 24, 2022 9:56 pm

Tho Caleb has GOT TO play better ……… he DID do this >>>>> 4th 2:55 – USC 4th & 6, at USC 43
Caleb Williams rushed up the middle for 7 yard gain

rleeholder1
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September 25, 2022 6:47 am
Reply to  HOF19

Having a QB that can run has made a huge difference this year. Caleb’s ability to run and get critical yards reminds me a lot of Rodney Peete. Fight On!

UtahTrojan
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September 24, 2022 9:52 pm

I will be at the OSU / Utah game next week. Be interesting to see how that one goes.

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September 24, 2022 9:54 pm
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We are playing ASU next week which is who Utah is playing tonight

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September 24, 2022 10:43 pm
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More like Utah toyed with ASU tonight. But that was expected.

HOF19
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September 24, 2022 9:54 pm
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Probable top 5 game of this season (Pac-12 wise anyway ).

ATL D.D.S.
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September 24, 2022 9:55 pm
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Go Beavers!

Steveg
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September 24, 2022 9:52 pm

I think Riley figured it out in the end, hit the receiver in between the short and deep coverage guys. Right where Caleb hit Addison. TD Game

USC1988
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September 24, 2022 10:50 pm
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Not worried about LR … he is a real coach and will learn from this

Steveg
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September 24, 2022 9:50 pm

Oregon St needs to be in the polls, they are so much better than half the teams ranked.

John Weld
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September 24, 2022 9:50 pm

Cannot afford to have an offensive performance like this in Salt Lake.

ATL D.D.S.
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September 24, 2022 9:52 pm
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Hopefully, the offense got this stinker out of their systems!

HOF19
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September 24, 2022 9:52 pm
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↑↑↑↑↑ #1 comment of the night (As far as I am concerned ).

HOF19
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September 24, 2022 9:49 pm

What did the 2 exhausted fighters in the first Rocky movie (At the end of the fight) say to each other ????? >>>>>’Don’t want any re-match”

Last edited 2 months ago by HOF19
volunteerTrojan
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September 24, 2022 9:49 pm

The other 3 games we would have won without the turnovers. Not tonight. The D flat out won this one.

TrojanMPA90
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September 24, 2022 9:48 pm

Our D was awesome

UtahTrojan
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September 24, 2022 9:48 pm
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Who would have thought.

TrojanMPA90
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September 24, 2022 9:50 pm
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I thought this was going to be a shootout. It turned into an old fashion defensive game.

UtahTrojan
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September 24, 2022 9:47 pm

4 more turnovers. Unbelievable

ATL D.D.S.
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September 24, 2022 9:49 pm
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How many defensive turnovers did we have all of last season?

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September 24, 2022 10:10 pm
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I looked it up: for the entire 2021 season, the trojans had 14 interceptions and 4 recovered fumbles. We now stand at 14 for the 2022 season after 4 games.😮

TrojanMPA90
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September 24, 2022 9:46 pm

Ballgame! D wins this game!

Chris
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September 24, 2022 9:46 pm

I watched the last 5 minutes. It went well. Not sure what the heck happened earlier in the game but I am glad we walked away with the win.

at Oregon St is an adventure

ATL D.D.S.
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September 24, 2022 9:47 pm
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You dog, Chris.

volunteerTrojan
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September 24, 2022 9:47 pm
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From now on, you are required to watch.

Steveg
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September 24, 2022 9:49 pm
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Chris, you may not ever miss a game again. USC needs you.

John Weld
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September 24, 2022 9:55 pm
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Chris Chris , the offense did not play well until you tuned in.

ATL D.D.S.
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September 24, 2022 9:58 pm
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I think Chris is pulling our leg–he was watching the whole game eating TUMS like the rest of us….

Chris
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September 24, 2022 9:50 pm
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My wife scheduled a dinner party at our house! We’ve been married 25 years, not sure what she was thinking. Just glad I got to watch some and we win!

John Weld
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September 24, 2022 9:46 pm

Big losses in the contest but do you care since we got the W

RialtoTrojan
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September 24, 2022 9:45 pm

Thank you defense

ATL D.D.S.
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September 24, 2022 9:45 pm

I cannot believe we are going to win this game!

volunteerTrojan
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September 24, 2022 9:45 pm

#35 should be benched next game.

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September 24, 2022 9:45 pm

Defense wins the game, wow

UtahTrojan
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September 24, 2022 9:46 pm
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Unbelievable

HOF19
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September 24, 2022 9:44 pm

Someone on D make a BIG PLAY PLEASE .

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September 24, 2022 9:45 pm
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There you go.

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September 24, 2022 9:46 pm
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Big enough for you! Gentry!

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September 24, 2022 9:47 pm
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Request granted!

HOF19
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September 24, 2022 9:43 pm

A penalty ….We Love helping other teams beat us …..SMH .

ATL D.D.S.
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September 24, 2022 9:42 pm

that was bull shit OSU did the same thing when it sacked Williams earlier.

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September 24, 2022 9:43 pm
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Stupid either way.

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September 24, 2022 9:42 pm

Why a stupid penalty now?

HOF19
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September 24, 2022 9:41 pm

I can exhale (just a little tho) >>>>> 4th 1:19 – USC 2nd & 10, at ORST 21
Caleb Williams passed to Jordan Addison to the right for 21 yard touchdown

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September 24, 2022 9:41 pm

We need a deep kick off

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September 24, 2022 9:40 pm

TD SC!

ATL D.D.S.
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September 24, 2022 9:39 pm

Addison!

Steveg
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September 24, 2022 9:39 pm

Addison gets a catch.

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September 24, 2022 9:39 pm

I will say the beaver secondary has been very good.

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September 24, 2022 9:40 pm

Very good

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September 24, 2022 10:52 pm
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Always allowed to mug up there

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September 24, 2022 9:39 pm

Honestly the last three passes were interference not called

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September 24, 2022 9:38 pm

Just not understanding these play calls.

HOF19
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September 24, 2022 9:38 pm

Gain yards every play from here on out …..Fight On !

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September 24, 2022 9:37 pm

Our players are going to be sore tomorrow

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September 24, 2022 9:37 pm

All the Caleb for Heisman hype is out the window. About as bad a performance as any QB can have.

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September 24, 2022 9:35 pm

Bush push II

Steveg
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September 24, 2022 9:38 pm
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That was classic. Give the first down to the O line.

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September 24, 2022 9:35 pm

Our opponents are going follow the OSU defensive game plan.

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September 24, 2022 10:52 pm
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Good LR will adjust

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September 24, 2022 9:34 pm

You knew some good coach was going to scheme to slow the SC offense down at some point, but this is really embarrassing with all of the so called weapons we have. If Riley can’t do what’s best for the team by changing a QB when needed, at the risk of upsetting Caleb, then Riley is not who I thought he is. Who would have thought that the Defense would be keeping us in this game.

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September 24, 2022 10:53 pm

Take your starter out during a tough road game … and not watch him win it at the end
sure glad LR stuck with him

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September 24, 2022 9:34 pm

2 INTERFERENCES NOT CALLED

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September 24, 2022 9:35 pm
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He was mugged.

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September 24, 2022 9:32 pm

To remain undefeated its now …..OR NEVER !

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September 24, 2022 9:32 pm

Brendan Rice isn’t doing it for me as a return man.

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September 24, 2022 9:31 pm

Pull Williams he’s high or something. He hasn’t followed the called play all game.

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September 24, 2022 9:33 pm
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He is smiling a-lot….

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September 24, 2022 9:30 pm

I am really tired of Taco Bell commercials