Pac-12 football is booming – and that will only help USC’s CFP chances
Bill Hancock, the College Football Playoff’s executive director, said teams benefit in terms of CFP selection from ‘being in a conference with other good teams’
Caleb Williams and the fifth-ranked Trojans hope to have a season worthy of a spot in the four-team College Football Playoff, and their Pac-12 schedule will only help them if they can survive run-ins with, from left, UCLA’s Dante Moore, Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and Utah’s Cam Rising. (Photos by AP)
Luca Evans (OC Register) — Really, every week until the bye week was a bye week.
After three weeks of virtual tune-up games against overmatched San Jose State, Nevada and Stanford squads – to make nothing of Saturday’s upcoming road tilt against an Arizona State squad that was down to its QB4 last week – USC football will hit a gauntlet beginning bright and early in Boulder on Sept. 30.
A gauntlet, truly, because from the ashes of the Pac-12 has risen the conference’s most dynamic football product in a long while. Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. is perhaps the mightiest challenger to Caleb Williams’ bid for back-to-back Heisman Trophies; Oregon and Utah are reloaded, undefeated, and vying for a shot at the conference crown; and Colorado’s transfer-rich turnaround has become so scintillating in the “Coach Prime” era that Clippers star Kawhi Leonard, of all people, made an appearance at the Buffs’ game last weekend. Through four weeks, much of the national collegiate football zeitgeist has centered, improbably, out west: eight Pac-12 schools are ranked in AP’s current Top 25 poll, more than any other conference.
Now, from a 30,000-foot-view that requires absolutely no knowledge of USC’s season or football in general, that spells trouble for USC’s chances at a long-desired College Football Playoff appearance.
The CFP is shifting to a 12-team bracket in 2024. But as presently constructed, only four teams are selected. Thus, given that the Southeastern, Big Ten, Big 12 and Atlantic Coast conferences will all likely field worthy contenders come selection time (think Georgia, Michigan, Texas and more), the Trojans would need an emphatic run through the Pac-12 to merit strong consideration.
But the Pac-12’s strength – not the most top-heavy but the deepest conference in the FBS through the early part of this season – should give its eventual champion an inherent advantage. USC’s schedule through the rest of the season, in particular, boasts six teams currently ranked in the AP poll. The CFP committee doesn’t consider such arbitrary ranking systems in its final determinations, executive director Bill Hancock told the Southern California News Group – but a team that plays in a strong conference schedule will “be better off” than one who doesn’t, Hancock said.
“There is no doubt, starting with the committee – when they start meeting October 30th, that it will know who played a strong schedule,” Hancock said. “And a team benefits from being in a conference with other good teams. Absolutely.”
One of the most important factors in CFP selection, Hancock said, is “relative statistics” – the concept of measuring teams against one another by how well they performed against other team’s established results. Hancock’s explanation, in simpler terms:
“If you gained 400 yards against an opponent who only gives up 100 yards per game,” Hancock said, “that’s quite an accomplishment. But if you gained 400 yards against a team who’s been averaging giving up 350 yards per game, that’s really not much of an accomplishment.”
From that perspective, here’s a breakdown of the key points on USC’s schedule if the Trojans want to reach CFP glory:
Oct. 21, Utah: With quarterback Cameron Rising still recovering from injury, the reigning Pac-12 champion Utes’ offense has slogged a bit through three games to start the year, averaging just 25 points per game. Rising will be back, but this attack doesn’t look quite as dynamic as last year’s unit; if USC’s defense can’t keep them off the field, it will serve as a strike on their final-season resume.
Nov. 4, Washington: Alex Grinch, stand up. Washington’s Penix Jr. will buoy massive passing-yardage numbers for the Huskies this year; this is a prove-it game more than any other for Domani Jackson, Ceyair Wright and the Trojans’ secondary to slow down Washington receivers Jalen McMillan, Ja’lynn Polk and Rome Odunze.
Nov. 18, UCLA: Flip side of the coin here. UCLA’s defense has been stout through games against Coastal Carolina and San Diego State, and the Bruins’ unit should only get truly tested a few more times throughout the season. This game might serve as a chance for Caleb Williams and company to drop massive yardage in an end-of-the-regular-season statement.
ocregister.com
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Some great info here from Lincoln Riley
https://youtu.be/2AYHHYOp9bA
Funny comment about Lincoln Riley’s sudden and smart reversal of his misguided Luca Evans USC campus bar.
“Luca Brasi No Longer Sleeps With the Fishes”
Allen, great movie quotes today! Poor Luca, just doing the Corleone bidding. Jake Gittes had no idea what he was getting into.
Coaches such as Ryan Day, Mike Elko, Kyle Whittingham and Chip Kelly have been outspoken about the new CFB clock rule changes which have cut about six plays and six minutes from games, making it especially more difficult for teams to come back from deeper holes. Some coaches think it’s been a nonfactor, but not these guys: Kelly — “These new rules, it’s crazy. We had four drives in the first half. This game goes fast. Hope you guys are selling a lot of commercials.” Elko — “It shortens that time from what it used to be in college football… Read more »
Ever notice that the games on the Pac12 network were not as long as the ones on ABC or espn? Fewer commercials.
Congrats to Lincoln Riley and USC for quickly doing the right thing… USC and Lincoln Riley rescind the suspension of access to SCNG reporter Two-week suspension has been immediately cut short after a phone conversation between the Trojans coach and reporter Luca Evans Riley — “Last night, I received a call from Luca Evans, and we had very candid and productive conversation. We agreed that we both could have handled the situation differently. I appreciate Luca recognizing the policies we have in place to protect our student-athletes and acknowledging to adhere to those in the future. We welcome Luca back… Read more »
I just don’t feel it was the right thing, but it is done so we don’t have to hear about it anymore. imho
Great article on an insanely popular dear old friend of mine and incredibly staunch USC supporter, Bruce Gelker… USC’s oldest-living football player and his ‘magical’ 100th birthday Luca Evans (OC Register) — ‘Everybody knew Bruce Gelker’ “Outside Gelker’s room at Silverado (assisted living), a glass case enshrines a few of the many lives he’s lived. “Frames preserve a black-and-white rendition of the 1943 USC football roster. Preserve Gelker in his Marine uniform, training in the V-12 program at USC before serving in World War II and Korea. Preserve an older him, grinning, next to former football coach Pete Carroll. “To… Read more »
Cam Rising To Play vs UCLA
Brett McMurphy — “With UTAH moving from 4½-point to 6-point favorite, it appears QB Cam Rising will return Saturday vs. UCLA. UTAH coach Kyle Whittingham said Rising was a full participant in practice last week w/no contact. Rising hasn’t played since tearing his ACL in Rose Bowl.”
on his 32nd birthday too
The four fastest players on USC’s team per Domani Jackson, who not surprisingly calls himself the fastest:
Zach Branch (5-10, 175)
Raleek Brown (5-8, 185)
Brendon Rice (6-3, 210)
Domani Jackson (6-1, 190)
247sports.com
Good column by USCFootball.com’s Dan Weber who has sent a letter to USC with his advice on how to handle USC’s “unforced error” and cut LR’s and everyone else’s losses. Weber — “If it were me, I’d have a sit-down with Luca Evans, come to an understanding that Lincoln and he can both agree to, and invite him back. Make it an educational experience for everyone involved. “Do not make it worse. Do not extend it. Get back to coaching the heck out of this football team. And do what you do best which is scheming offense like nobody else… Read more »
players in college deserve more privacy that if they were in the NFL. the little ink-stained wretch needs to know his place. Back off and apologize SCNG.
F that … toss his him
Riley ended it already. He has moved on, he has a game he has to travel for. Little Luca has learned a lesson. It will make him a better man and reporter, unless he goes Scott Wolf, then there nothing anybody can do for him. Dan Weber is a great guy, but this time I can’t agree with him.
Interesting tidbit about CAL, a team I’m glad to be leaving behind.
The Bears have not beaten a top-10 team on the road since 1969, the first semester of my SR year in HS, even with Aaron Rodgers, as we all know. The Bears are headed for another defeat this weekend in Seattle against #8 UW. Some things never change.
Bill Plaschke: Shame on USC for banning a reporter in a futile attempt to control media
“Riley showed that for all his football genius, he can be an incredibly petty control freak who hasn’t yet adjusted to this big market’s culture of transparency and accountability…”
absolutely brutal column
Plashke is a mental, and moral midget. The LA Times is a parody of a newspaper, trying to appeal exclusively to the extreme woke left. Who cares what he, or any of their other buffoons(McCullough) think about this matter.
It’s one thing to belittle a Coach, it’s entirely different when he chooses to denigrate the Athletic Director, which Plasche will ultimately regret, young Luca Evans as well.
Risk your top draw and credentials for some dumb little twerp lol
Didn’t everyone expect old Bill to react like this? He had to do it, he couldn’t stand there and just let the young reporter suffer from his mistakes. I doubt many people care what old Bill has to say about it. Riley did the right thing, and his program is a success because he holds to his standards.
What???!!! “Culture of transparency and accountability?” BWAHAHAHAHA!!! Plaschke worships the Chipster, who is so secretive he doesn’t even tell his OWN QBs whether they will be playing until an hour before the game! Plaschke has always been an idiot, but he couldn’t possibly have said that with a straight face!
Plaschke’s got an agenda vs USC, and he’s gone way overboard to damage USC football, and the school in general, as much as possible IMO.
But I’m not really concerned with Plaschke at all. Not a factor for me.
But LR doesn’t need these kinds of time-consuming distractions that could have been handled in ways that didn’t waste time, drag other USC officials into it, make national headlines, and generate massive amounts of public criticism in today’s new NIL world, even if undeserved.
Unlike CH, LR is a man in charge of his program. Trust me, he spent about 10 minutes on this issue, and is focused on all the other more important tasks at hand. Other people are wasting their time on it (like you and me!), but LR is focused on biz-ness.
Oh, I know LR’s laser-focused. I just think he made a wrong move here, and a mountain out of molehill.
Dan Weber is massively pro-USC and has covered the school for 20 years, and he addressed it very well for 247sports.
247sports.com
This seems like too much belly-aching over nothing. I just can’t get my blood pressure pumped up over things that don’t relate to what’s going to happen on the field when we get into the meat of our schedule.
I am with you Rock, it needs to be put to rest, it is a distraction this team does not need. The rules are there to control the program, to protect the players, staff and media. Luca screwed up, irregardless of the quality of the article, and he will get through it and come out a better man who works according to the rules. Everyone needs to just let it rest, it’s over.
Hilarious to use the words culture of transparency and accountability when referring to reporters.
I found that laughable as well. Transparency and accountability, huh?
In today’s world, does that “culture” exist anywhere anymore? Not when I turn on the TV.
As aptly expressed by Jack Nicholson in his Chinatown role as PI Jake Gittes when asked by John Huston (Noah Cross) if the investigating Lieutenant is honest:
“As far as it goes. Of course, he has to swim in the same water we all do.”
No wonder there’s such little enthusiasm about USC at ASU.
ASU hasn’t scored in the last six quarters. Amazing.
Did anyone see the background behind Neon Deion during his interview with Good Morning America? It says, “If You Play Good, They Pay Good!” Ha! The dying NCAA must have put their defibrillator on the charger when they saw that!!! 🙂
This Lincoln Riley kerfuffle with the local media caught me off guard. I think memories might linger over this because Carol Folt’s name was brought into the fray, and other coaches such as Choc Chip have made widely distributed public comments (“I didn’t think you could do that!”). While I think that few care about Jim Alexander and his little hissy fit, fighting with the media can be dicey unless you have the overwhelming personality of a guy like Prime, who nobody’s a match for. Prime loves and thrives on personal attention. Most don’t, and LR likes to be secretive.… Read more »
Have the Sanders found anything yet to make their upcoming game with Oregon personal? 😂😂
I believe they did but didn’t care enough about the story to remember it. In an interview sanders already made it personal with USC saying his son doesn’t take a back seat to anyone. Apparently he doesn’t like that his son is not considered the front runner for the Heisman.
Joel Klatt’s new Top 10. Maybe he’s finally coming around.
1 GA
2 MICH
3 TEXAS
4 USC
5 UW
6 OHIO ST
7 FSU
8 PSU
9 UTAH
10 ND
And USC fans thought our horrible drought against Lou Holtz and Notre Dame was bad! The Irish haven’t beaten OHIO ST since Halloween of 1936. Sam Hartman (yet another new Heisman candidate) gives ND a real shot this Saturday at 4:30 PT (NBC) in South Bend. The Buckeyes have won five in a row against the Irish and lead the all-time series 5-2, including a 21-10 victory in the season opener last year in Columbus. The Domers are looking better and better to me this year and I predict they will beat the Buckeyes on Saturday even though I never… Read more »
In my opinion, Allen, you’re jumping the gun here just a tad. Not because I disagree with you that the Domers may be improved enough to beat Ohio State — but just that we can’t tell that from their slate so far. THIS is the weekend we find out whether any of this kind of talk is warranted. In the words of the late Denny Green, “if you want to crown their a**, crown them.” But Saturday, the world finds out if there is anything real going on in South Bend at all, or if this is just another fool’s… Read more »
You know me Rock. I like to stick my neck out.
Part of my reasoning is that I can’t get it out of my head that OHIO ST is over-rated because of their QB situation. Plus the Domer secondary is excellent.
And playing in South Bend amongst all the Irish ghosts (and refs) is a big order for any QB. I was there when Todd Marinovich, who could really throw the damn ball, couldn’t pull it off, and we totally had ’em on the ropes. I think that may have scarred me for life! 🙁
Ha, yeah! I am not impressed with this year’s Ohio State crew at all. I think Michigan will kill them again this year. But until I see something real from ND, they are a paper tiger in my head. Their recruiting in recent years warrants having a really good team this year, but they just always seem to do less with more. And the paint is still wet on whether Freeman is a good coach or another guy like CH that the players love that isn’t ready for #1 status. Should be an intriguing matchup for sure!
All true. It’s a can’t-miss game. If ND loses this one, they’ll have to slink back into their hole. That kind of pressure will either propel them, or submerge them.
But they lost last year in Columbus. Maybe they’re due.
This year’s Heisman race is gonna be the best we have ever witnessed in CFB. As partial as I am to Caleb winning Heisman #2, I’m also all in on the other 6-7 amazing QBs who could end up as first or high second-round draft picks and are legit candidates. I had never even heard of Shedeur Sanders before the season started. While the Heisman seemed to be becoming more and more of a lesser sideline attraction over the years (despite all the Heisman House commercials), the beautiful bronzed trophy which Reggie wants so desperately to get back now has… Read more »
Beat ND … and it’s CW again
The Colorado train will slow down in the next few weeks but I have changed my opinion on its long term trajectory. If Deion stays in Boulder, they will be a top 10 program. He has more momentum than anyone, maybe ever. He is going to get a crazy recruiting class. The guy is a promoter like nobody else and has a really good staff. He gets it.
So is this weekend’s game between WASt and ORSt the first ever Pac 2 Championship Game? Just asking for a friend…
And what will soon become the annual Pacific Mountain West Championship Game.
SC should say no go in Pac 10 title game … Why play it
USC should handle ASU this coming Saturday as I understand the Sun Devils had to play their 4th string Quarterback last week. It’s a 3.5 hour drive for me to get to Tempe from Bullhead City, Arizona where I live now, so I’m going to pass on that game and focus on attending the homecoming game on November 4 against UW in the LA Coliseum. SC won’t get a test until meeting Colorado in Boulder on September 30. It’s amazing how much hype Coach Prime and the Buffs are getting these days. A sound victory by USC there would give… Read more »
Mason Cobb expected to return from injury for ASU game
Cobb — “These past two weeks have been good to me. I’ve been able to dive into the playbook more, get my body right and build my strength up. I feel really healthy and I’ll be ready to go Saturday.”
247sports.com
USC and Lincoln Riley have some simple rules for the football media to ensure his attempt at an all-in rebuild of USC’s damaged football culture proceeds unhindered.
Riley’s upset that these rules weren’t followed sufficiently so he benched cub reporter Luca Evans (below; recently out of Chapman Univ and new to the beat) for a couple of weeks. Evans had been previously warned.
Case closed. USC has a backbone again.
Wolf is cackling like an old hen about this. Not only was he banned from the same beat, by Lane Kiffin, but Pat Hayden made Kiffin reinstate him. Luca is five times the reporter that Wolf is (Wolf is prone to quoting anonymous coaches and players), I hope two weeks pass quickly for him.
Nothing wrong with a young reporter stretching his boundaries.
Nothing wrong with an elite coach insisting on his way.
As Humphrey Bogart said in Casablanca, “Louis, I think this is the beginning of a beautiful friendship.”
Today the paper made a smelly rebuttal. Their take is that Riley has suspended their reporting option. This is simply not true. They have suspended the credentials of a beat writer on their property. Jim Alexander wrote a slant that claims USC is blocking first amendment rights and his retort is to say he’s suspending them from his writing. If I hadn’t read it I wouldn’t have believed it. A second article says that the school had backed Riley’s decision. Luca is free to write and publish anything he wants, he just cannot do it on campus at USC for… Read more »
We have a nice little battle going on here. Going to be very fun watching this play out.
Jim Alexander (who?) says he’s gonna suspend USC from his column. Like I care. Maybe Bill Plaschke will be next. Can’t wait to read his take.
Riley wants to set a precedent. He did it with the complete backing of USC and a terrific new AD who refused to back down like Pat Haden did when he reversed course on Lane Kiffin.
Next.
In two weeks it will be ancient history, the kid will be back and everyone will be happy. Nobody cares what Alexander thinks anyway, so keep USC out of his column and reduce even further his readers. Intelligent move.
I could see things quickly getting out of hand on campus without strict rules of engagement. Imagine a group of reporters and poparazzi following Caleb or Bronny all over campus taking pictures and peppering them with questions all day every day. It is pretty controlled by NFL and MLB teams. Follow the rules
the reporter looks like a little bitch….