Lincoln Riley, Without a Single “Great Win”, Faces the Most Important Game of His Career at USC …
Ryan Kartje (LA Times) — The soft part of the schedule is behind USC. Oregon awaits next Saturday. The time is now for Riley and USC, just like the billboards around L.A. have been insisting for months.
That this moment arrives after Saturday’s uninspiring escape from Rutgers only amplifies the pressure on USC’s coach. Against arguably the worst team in the Big Ten, the Trojans were once again plagued by many of the same road woes that Riley has failed for four years to solve. USC’s defense, now on its third coordinator under Riley, was largely a disaster. Even the offense, with another Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback, looked clunky and out of sync.
Now, Riley is out of time to iron out these issues. Because there is no more important game for USC this season than next Saturday. Outside of the 2022 Pac-12 title game, which went quite poorly for him, I’d argue it’s the most important game of Riley’s entire tenure to date.
Riley has yet to beat Oregon as USC’s coach, while Dan Lanning and the Ducks have run circles around the Trojans, on and off the field, during the four-plus years they’ve both been coaching out West. Oregon may have never won a national title, but has been to the College Football Playoff in three out of those four years. USC has never been to the Playoff. The two teams have become legitimate rivals over that time. But in two meetings with Oregon under Riley, there’s never been any doubt about who’s the better team.
For a brief moment, early in this season, it seemed like that might be shifting. Oregon was stunned by Oklahoma State, just two weeks ago, leading to real questions about whether the Ducks are the Playoff contender they were made out to be.
That loss, though, actually ratcheted up the importance for Riley. With Oregon appearing this vulnerable, there are no excuses for USC or its coach if they don’t win this game. No matter the situation that Riley inherited, the Trojans should have what it takes, by Year 5, to compete with Oregon. Full stop.
That’s the standard that USC was expecting in shelling out over $11 million per year to its football coach. But in four-plus seasons under Riley, the Trojans have just six wins against ranked opponents and have consistently blown their biggest games.
Think, for a moment, of Riley’s biggest win at USC. Are you having a hard time conjuring it? That’s because of the six ranked teams that USC has beaten under Riley, all of them finished with four losses that season.
Clay Helton had three top-five wins at USC through his first 18 games as head coach. Meanwhile, in almost five years and 57 games, I’d argue Riley still doesn’t have a single great win.
He can change that Saturday. But if Riley can’t lead USC past Oregon now, after all this time, who’s to say he ever will?
Twenty five years ago, USC’s football program was in a bad spot.
The Trojans hadn’t been relevant in over a decade, and Paul Hackett had just been fired as head coach. USC needed a new direction. But its search for Hackett’s replacement was going poorly. Two coaches — from Oregon and Oregon State, no less — had already turned them down. That’s when Daryl Gross, the USC official in charge of the search, turned his attention to a twice-failed NFL coach.
Pete Carroll.
His hire would turn out to be a seminal moment in the history of Trojan football. But that was not how folks saw it at the time.
“There’s legendary stories of fax machines just blowing up and paper after paper coming through,” said Rocky Seto, who was a grad assistant at the time. “People weren’t happy.”
Bill Plaschke, The Times columnist, wrote a column at the time ripping the hire. Carroll himself called Plaschke after that, begging for a shot.
“All he kept saying,” Plaschke said, “was just gimme a chance.”
Well, it turned out OK for Carroll and the Trojans. They won back-to-back national titles and nearly won a third during his tenure as coach.
It’s what came after that, as USC tried to cling on to the Carroll era, that’s the subject of a new narrative podcast series from LA Times and LA Times Studios, House of Troy. Starting with Carroll’s hire a quarter-century ago, we’ll walk you through how USC rose to college football prominence and how it all came crashing down once Carroll left.
The first chapter of House of Troydrops on Sept. 22, with new episodes coming every week after that. Before then, be sure to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
Extra points
—King Miller is the clear RB1 at the moment. USC may view Miller and Waymond Jordan as starting running backs, but there’s no doubting who has taken the reins at the top of that rotation. Both are averaging over five yards per carry. But Miller has at least 15 carries in all four games, while Jordan hasn’t eclipsed 11. Personally, I’m a bit surprised by that divide given how great Jordan looked before his injury last season. It makes me wonder if he’s all the way back from his ankle surgeries.
—The receiver rotation is still up in the air right now. With Trent Mosley out indefinitely, USC opened the game with Kayden Dixon-Wyatt, Corey Simms and Zacharyus Williams as its top three wideouts. Dixon-Wyatt is deservedly locked in that spot, while Simms balled it in his 20 snaps, catching four passes for 72 yards despite missing some time during the game due to injury. Tanook Hines ended up playing more snaps, but had a key drop on third down that we’d be talking much more about if USC hadn’t gone for it and converted on fourth. Williams played in the slot, but had just one catch. The real mystery here is Terrell Anderson, who was dressed and not on the injury report, but didn’t play a single snap on offense. Anderson was viewed, at one point, as a key contributor, so it’s not clear what happened.
—Kaylon Miller replaced Hayden Treter as the starting left guard. The move was a bit unexpected, given how Treter played through three games. Treter still played 28 snaps to Miller’s 40 against Rutgers, but with a very good Oregon defensive line on tap, the offensive line will be tested next week unlike it has all season. Miller has always had the respect of offensive line coach Zach Hanson. We’ll know at the start of the game next week whom he trusts the most in that spot.
—USC isn’t built to withstand injuries in the secondary. No unit on the entire roster has more doubts about its depth, and against Rutgers, USC had to test that depth more than it would like. Top corner Jontez Williams only played 22 snaps, while slot corner Alex Graham only played 15. Kennedy Urlacher and Rock Hill took their places, and while they did a fine job, the ripple effects of one injury on the position could be significant. Behind those players are a lot of question marks. So USC better hope that they’re all healthy heading into Oregon.
—USC men’s hoops will play four Big Ten road games in 10 days to start 2027. Which, on its face, seems patently insane. But after a screwy start to the Big Ten schedule a year ago, coach Eric Musselman actually asked for a slate exactly like this. The reason? His team doesn’t have to travel back and forth twice to the East Coast. In this case, they will have to travel from Bloomington, Ind. to College Park, Md. But that’s much more doable than an extra 10 hours of flying.
This week, in 2006 …
After hosting College Gameday and beating No. 19 Nebraska at home, USC opens its Pac-10 season on the road with a dominant defensive performance at Arizona, winning 20-3.
Led by new inside linebacker Rey Maualuga, the Trojans didn’t allow a single point until the fourth quarter. The offense, meanwhile, finally found a running back to lean on. With Reggie Bush and LenDale White both off to the NFL and USC still waiting for someone to step up in their place, Emmanuel Moody heeded the call. He rushed for 130 yards and a score as the Trojans stood pat at No. 3 in the AP poll.
Polling the people
We asked, “After three comfortable wins in the non-conference schedule, do you feel better about the Trojans’ trajectory than you did at the start of the season?”
After 1,523 votes:
Nothing has changed, 47.4%
Yes, I feel better, 45.8%
No, I feel worse, 6.8%
Olympic sports spotlight
A brutal start to the season isn’t getting much better in Big Ten play for USC’s women’s soccer team. After starting the conference slate by being shut out, 5-0, by Michigan State, USC was shut out again by Purdue, 2-0, and then managed a tie against Oregon, 1-1.
The Trojans have scored one or fewer goals in seven of their nine matches this season and are 0-5-2 in those scenarios. They need to produce more offense — and stat.
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I remember when USC pulled off what everyone thought was the biggest hiring coup of the year. We had gone in and snagged a coach from a real football team and he had Heisman credentials. I remember reading that the Oklahoma fans were happy with us for taking this lackluster coach off their hands, and thinking “sour grapes.” Lincoln Riley is the coup that went poo. To paraphrase Top Gun; “Lincoln Riley’s ego is writing checks his players can’t cash.” I remember warning about the koolaid blather I was reading, willing to admit I was wrong if the predictions came… Read more »
I totally bought into all the Lincoln Riley hype when he first came over with Caleb the Heisman winner in tow. I totally ignored all the whispers about bad defenses. Heck, Gentleman Clay had been dismissed and it was time for USC to reach for greatness again. USC was incredibly fun to watch for awhile, at least when Caleb was running and passing like a wild man. But it all proved too good to be true, even though he was the most incredible Trojan QB I had ever seen. Caleb still holds that place with me. Now with the perfect… Read more »
CBS Sports Network’s Inside College Football picks. ORE (2-1) is looking for its 5th straight win over USC (4-0). Sportsline — USC 31-27 Rick Neuheisel — ORE (“ORE got a little entitled. So much adulation was coming their way. It can happen. Lincoln Riley knows USC fans deserve and expect it now, given what they gave him in terms of resources to build this team. The question is, does Lincoln Riley have the patience to run the ball and take possessions away from ORE? I don’t believe he does. He’s a high-flyin’ guy. His QBs are all over the NFL.”)… Read more »
The night that changed college football forever USC coach Lane Kiffin stares at the scoreboard down 24-0 in the first half at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena on Nov. 17, 2012. The Bruins, coached by first-year HC Jim Mora, won 38-28. (Gina Ferazzi/LAT) Ryan Kartje (LAT) — It was late into the night on New Year’s Day in 2006, and Lane Kiffin sat awake in USC’s team hotel near the Rose Bowl, racked with regret. This was before Kiffin became college football’s most prominent villain at Louisiana State University. He was just 30 then, the hotshot young protege of… Read more »
Worst loss in USC football history, Jan. 4, 2006. A date that shall live in USC football infamy. We were so close to 35 straight wins and a 3rd straight NC. The NCAA would have stripped it from us anyway.
Judgment Day coming for Lincoln Riley Ari Wasserman (On3.com) — “USC: It’s here. Judgment Day. Now is the time to finally gauge where USC football stands under Lincoln Riley. You can roll your eyes at the fact that the Trojans just beat Rutgers — yes, Rutgers — by seven on the road. You can call them a fraud and use all the usual tropes. But with Oregon coming to town this weekend, USC is finally in a position to prove to the country it’s a legit CFP contender. This game was always circled on the calendar, but it’s even… Read more »
The vast majority of USC fans don’t believe LR will ever lead USC to a NC. I doubt that’s even in question in year five of LR’s reign at USC. Furthermore, Riley is very secretive and operates in a more isolated manner than many other CFB head coaches. While LR’s approach really irritates some, it’s fine with me really. I’m just much more focused on the end results. Maybe I’m just used to to LR’s secrecy (some would say paranoia), but I don’t feel it’s my right to know all about the true nature of USC’s injuries, game plans, or… Read more »
It sure seems the day of one team being the perrenial playoff contender is coming to a close. There seems to be new teams annually, with a few hanging around the top. There just seems to be a little more equallity in football now, with the portal and NIL.
Ya, that’s true. Absolutely. But the teams with great coaches and NIL support will still generally always contend at the top (IMO). As a USC fan, I’m no longer asking for a dynasty of any sort. Far from it. I’d just like for USC to have one great year. Just one. And all that means is winning a couple of playoff games against really good teams. National championship? I don’t think that’s even within Riley’s reach. i think all of us have adjusted our expectations. This isn’t the old pre-NIL/portal Pac-12 we’re dealing with. We get it. But how about… Read more »
The 2 closely ranked games could go either way. The 3 top 10 should win. That leaves Oregon – USC as the upset game, that will surprise no one. How far will USC drop if/when they get boat raced by the Ducks?
Funny how Florida is the favorite in the Ole Miss game. I do believe USC can beat the ducks. It is going to take a whole team on top of their game to do it though. This is the game where we see how much of all the hype was real or not.
OLE MISS is coming off practically the biggest win in the history of the program — certainly the most anticipated and publicized in modern times. And it was in Oxford, home of the awesome “Grove”. Talk about a recipe for a letdown.
Plus, if you’ve ever been to Gainesville, you’d love that home field advantage big time. “The Swamp” can be very intimidating. And the Gators are coming off a big win at AUB. They’ll be jacked, while the Rebs might be drained. Just a theory.
It’s not a function of whether USC can beat the Ducks. Of course we can. Plenty of teams can beat the uneven Ducks this year, just like unranked OKS just did. It’s a function of whether USC actually does beat the Ducks. We’ve got the roster to do it, and the Coliseum as our classic back drop. We’ve already seen that some of Riley’s hype was way off. 0-3 RUT showed us that. USC barely got out of there alive with a win. Certainly nothing to brag about, which is why the CFB world is still so skeptical of USC… Read more »
What The Athletic’s Chris Vannini thinks now: Trojans lose a little ground Ohio State leaps Indiana after the Hoosiers played another underwhelming half of football, taking just a 14-0 lead into the break against Western Kentucky. The Hoosiers haven’t played anyone; the same goes for Georgia. I’m still waiting to develop a real opinion on these teams. Notre Dame is extremely tough to gauge. The Irish have been in halftime battles with questionable Wisconsin and Michigan State teams, but they also won comfortably enough that the game was never truly in danger. I have concerns about the lack of explosiveness… Read more »
I just don’t understand, Ole Miss is ranked #4 and is a 3.5 point underdog to #21 Florida. They just beat LSU and Florida squeaked by Auburn by 5 points.
When Lacey is out the team struggles……and he is questionable. Florida is famous for home field cooking. Ole Miss defense is a bit shaky and Florida moves it well.
Who knows! Good luck….coming from a BIG LOSER last week.
I remember when USC pulled off what everyone thought was the biggest hiring coup of the year. We had gone in and snagged a coach from a real football team and he had Heisman credentials. I remember reading that the Oklahoma fans were happy with us for taking this lackluster coach off their hands, and thinking “sour grapes.” Lincoln Riley is the coup that went poo. To paraphrase Top Gun; “Lincoln Riley’s ego is writing checks his players can’t cash.” I remember warning about the koolaid blather I was reading, willing to admit I was wrong if the predictions came… Read more »
I totally bought into all the Lincoln Riley hype when he first came over with Caleb the Heisman winner in tow. I totally ignored all the whispers about bad defenses. Heck, Gentleman Clay had been dismissed and it was time for USC to reach for greatness again. USC was incredibly fun to watch for awhile, at least when Caleb was running and passing like a wild man. But it all proved too good to be true, even though he was the most incredible Trojan QB I had ever seen. Caleb still holds that place with me. Now with the perfect… Read more »
CBS Sports Network’s Inside College Football picks. ORE (2-1) is looking for its 5th straight win over USC (4-0). Sportsline — USC 31-27 Rick Neuheisel — ORE (“ORE got a little entitled. So much adulation was coming their way. It can happen. Lincoln Riley knows USC fans deserve and expect it now, given what they gave him in terms of resources to build this team. The question is, does Lincoln Riley have the patience to run the ball and take possessions away from ORE? I don’t believe he does. He’s a high-flyin’ guy. His QBs are all over the NFL.”)… Read more »
The night that changed college football forever USC coach Lane Kiffin stares at the scoreboard down 24-0 in the first half at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena on Nov. 17, 2012. The Bruins, coached by first-year HC Jim Mora, won 38-28. (Gina Ferazzi/LAT) Ryan Kartje (LAT) — It was late into the night on New Year’s Day in 2006, and Lane Kiffin sat awake in USC’s team hotel near the Rose Bowl, racked with regret. This was before Kiffin became college football’s most prominent villain at Louisiana State University. He was just 30 then, the hotshot young protege of… Read more »
Nice story from Kartje but he needs better research on the details or a better editor.
On New Year’s Day 2006, the SC-Texas game was still three days from being played.
Worst loss in USC football history, Jan. 4, 2006. A date that shall live in USC football infamy. We were so close to 35 straight wins and a 3rd straight NC. The NCAA would have stripped it from us anyway.
Judgment Day coming for Lincoln Riley Ari Wasserman (On3.com) — “USC: It’s here. Judgment Day. Now is the time to finally gauge where USC football stands under Lincoln Riley. You can roll your eyes at the fact that the Trojans just beat Rutgers — yes, Rutgers — by seven on the road. You can call them a fraud and use all the usual tropes. But with Oregon coming to town this weekend, USC is finally in a position to prove to the country it’s a legit CFP contender. This game was always circled on the calendar, but it’s even… Read more »
The vast majority of USC fans don’t believe LR will ever lead USC to a NC. I doubt that’s even in question in year five of LR’s reign at USC. Furthermore, Riley is very secretive and operates in a more isolated manner than many other CFB head coaches. While LR’s approach really irritates some, it’s fine with me really. I’m just much more focused on the end results. Maybe I’m just used to to LR’s secrecy (some would say paranoia), but I don’t feel it’s my right to know all about the true nature of USC’s injuries, game plans, or… Read more »
It sure seems the day of one team being the perrenial playoff contender is coming to a close. There seems to be new teams annually, with a few hanging around the top. There just seems to be a little more equallity in football now, with the portal and NIL.
Ya, that’s true. Absolutely. But the teams with great coaches and NIL support will still generally always contend at the top (IMO). As a USC fan, I’m no longer asking for a dynasty of any sort. Far from it. I’d just like for USC to have one great year. Just one. And all that means is winning a couple of playoff games against really good teams. National championship? I don’t think that’s even within Riley’s reach. i think all of us have adjusted our expectations. This isn’t the old pre-NIL/portal Pac-12 we’re dealing with. We get it. But how about… Read more »
Saturday will feature SIX AP-ranked games on the same day for the first time since Dec. 1, 2023. Favored team gets the picture. Times are ET.
The 2 closely ranked games could go either way. The 3 top 10 should win. That leaves Oregon – USC as the upset game, that will surprise no one. How far will USC drop if/when they get boat raced by the Ducks?
Funny how Florida is the favorite in the Ole Miss game. I do believe USC can beat the ducks. It is going to take a whole team on top of their game to do it though. This is the game where we see how much of all the hype was real or not.
Then Ole Miss is even more overrated than USC.
OLE MISS is coming off practically the biggest win in the history of the program — certainly the most anticipated and publicized in modern times. And it was in Oxford, home of the awesome “Grove”. Talk about a recipe for a letdown.
Plus, if you’ve ever been to Gainesville, you’d love that home field advantage big time. “The Swamp” can be very intimidating. And the Gators are coming off a big win at AUB. They’ll be jacked, while the Rebs might be drained. Just a theory.
It’s not a function of whether USC can beat the Ducks. Of course we can. Plenty of teams can beat the uneven Ducks this year, just like unranked OKS just did. It’s a function of whether USC actually does beat the Ducks. We’ve got the roster to do it, and the Coliseum as our classic back drop. We’ve already seen that some of Riley’s hype was way off. 0-3 RUT showed us that. USC barely got out of there alive with a win. Certainly nothing to brag about, which is why the CFB world is still so skeptical of USC… Read more »
This must be for just last weekend and not season-to-date else ducks could not be A+.
What The Athletic’s Chris Vannini thinks now: Trojans lose a little ground Ohio State leaps Indiana after the Hoosiers played another underwhelming half of football, taking just a 14-0 lead into the break against Western Kentucky. The Hoosiers haven’t played anyone; the same goes for Georgia. I’m still waiting to develop a real opinion on these teams. Notre Dame is extremely tough to gauge. The Irish have been in halftime battles with questionable Wisconsin and Michigan State teams, but they also won comfortably enough that the game was never truly in danger. I have concerns about the lack of explosiveness… Read more »
I just don’t understand, Ole Miss is ranked #4 and is a 3.5 point underdog to #21 Florida. They just beat LSU and Florida squeaked by Auburn by 5 points.
When Lacey is out the team struggles……and he is questionable. Florida is famous for home field cooking. Ole Miss defense is a bit shaky and Florida moves it well.
Who knows! Good luck….coming from a BIG LOSER last week.
Go big or go home huh? At least it wasn’t real money!
What the heck.
This may be the game where USC finds out if we hired the old Gary Patterson……or……old Gary Patterson.
It is going to boil down to can the backfield cover and will Maiava have his head in the game.
Either the backfield can, or can the backfield. And Riley.
Good one!