USC vs. Arizona Prediction: Trojans Look to Bounce Back in Tucson
Coming off its first loss, USC goes for a 10th straight win over the Wildcats.
Kane Webb (Athlon Sports)Â —Â The USC Trojans have had plenty of time to stew over their first loss of the season and will no doubt be eager to erase that taste from their mouths when they take on the Arizona Wildcats in Tucson on Saturday night. USC (6-1, 4-1 Pac-12) lost a heartbreaker to Utah its last time out and returns from a bye with a roster that’s at less than full strength. Arizona (3-4, 1-3) is hoping for better results after a rough start in conference play.
Even with the 43-42, last-second loss in Salt Lake City to the Utes, the 10th-ranked Trojans are very much alive for a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game, but their margin of error has narrowed considerably. What’s more, head coach Lincoln Riley likely won’t have all of his starters available, as injuries to Jordan Addison, Eric Gentry and Ralen Goforth could impact USC on both sides of the ball. Does that mean the Trojans are ripe for an upset in the desert? History is not on the Wildcats’ side, having lost nine in a row to the Men of Troy.
No. 10 USC at Arizona
Kickoff:Â Saturday, Oct. 29 at 7 p.m. ET TV:Â Pac-12 Networks Live Stream:Â fuboTV (start your free trial) Spread:Â USC -15.5 Tickets:Â As low as $13 on SITickets.com*
If the Trojans’ 43-42 loss at Utah, a game they led by as many as 14 points before giving up the game-winning touchdown and two-point conversion with just 48 seconds left, wasn’t bad enough, Addison sustained a leg injury in the third quarter. While specifics have been scarce, the belief is that the reigning Biletnikoff Award winner (and Pitt transfer) avoided a serious injury. Riley has referred to Addison as “day to day,” so it’s possible he could end up playing Saturday night. More likely, however, is Addison will sit this one out since USC should have more than enough firepower to outscore Arizona.
To that end, running back Travis Dye could be called upon to do a little more. The Oregon transfer has been a crucial component of an offense that is tied for third in the Pac-12 in scoring (40.4 ppg) and is fourth in total (475.3 ypg) offense. Dye is second in the conference in rushing (647 yds.) and is tied with Addison for the team in touchdowns with seven (all rushing). Arizona has been particularly vulnerable against the run, giving up 207.4 yards per game (121st nationally), along with 20 rushing touchdowns (T-126th), which makes a Dye-centric game plan look even more appealing.
But the Wildcats won’t forget about quarterback Caleb Williams, who is coming off of an impressive showing (381 passing yds., 5 TDs) in the loss to Utah. Even though he may not have Addison, Williams has plenty of other options to throw to, including fellow Oklahoma transfer Mario Williams, who put up 145 receiving yards on just four catches against the Utes. Whoever he throws to, Caleb Williams should be able to have success against an Arizona defense that’s surrendered 14 touchdown passes and recorded just two interceptions.
When Arizona Has the Ball
Statistically speaking, the Wildcats aren’t too far behind USC on offense. Arizona is averaging 466 yards per game (sixth in Pac-12), although the scoring is a little further behind (31.6 ppg) in comparison. Still, the key for head coach Jedd Fisch’s team is to try and take advantage of a Trojans defense that could be down linebackers Eric Gentry (knee) and Ralen Goforth (hand). If either plays, it likely will come down to a game-time decision.
The challenge for the Wildcats is getting more out of a running game that’s produced just four rushing touchdowns in its conference matchups. It’s been a committee approach in the backfield with Michael Wiley, Jonah Coleman, and DJ Williams getting the bulk of the work. Quarterback Jayden de Laura has been carrying this offense on his shoulders, as he’s second in the Pac-12 in passing yards (2,274) and is tied with Caleb Williams for second in touchdown passes (19). The Washington State transfer has thrown seven interceptions, which is not a good sign given USC’s ball-hawking ways (12 INTs, tied for second in FBS) this season.
Final Analysis
USC won’t be at full strength for this game and is coming off of a loss, but the Trojans also have had plenty of time to stew over the Utah collapse, so Arizona better be ready. Not only would it be a good idea for Riley to not rush his banged-up starters back into action, he probably won’t need them either considering the significant talent advantage USC enjoys over the Wildcats. In each of its three conference losses so far, Arizona has given up 49 points. Caleb Williams and Co. should be able to do that, if not more, even if Addison sits this one out.
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College football ……IT’S ALL ABOUT CASH $$$$$ PodcastOfChampions
@Pac12Podcast
·
2h
Whoa. #Big12 media deal already done. Nice increase in revenue despite losing Texas and Oklahoma.
Quote Tweet
John Ourand
@Ourand_SBJ
·
2h
The Big 12’s deal with ESPN and Fox Sports is done. SBJ has all the details.
Riley should have kept the team on the field at the end of the first half until the officials took a review of what they screwed up. The fact the AZ had run into the tunnel should not have affected their very bad decision. This is the same crew that blew the Utah game. How is this possible week after week?
We had a list of 38 games on TV yesterday and 14 of them were upsets. That is not even considering the spreads. No wonder it is so hard to stay in the contest. Great day though.
Arizona was pretty good on offense, DeLaura was almost unstoppable. Those receivers they had are some of the best I have seen all season. It was their super bowl game, the game of the year, the one they really wanted to win against #10 in the nation, the vaunted USC Trojans. It is a sign USC has come back, that every game they get a team that has placed extreme importance on beating USC to make their season a success. They played to win and left nothing out there. USC is that good, to take week after week the absolute… Read more »
Almost speechless. The team and coaching has regressed, which is alarming coming off a tough loss and a bye. But, as others have said, a win and 7-1 record after last year, is something to be thankful for. The early season performances, discipline, and penalty reductions, falsely raised our expectations. I’m just not going to be surprised if we continue to play this way from here on out. I’m going to hope for an improved defensive effort. Fight on and good night
The good news is all remaining games are at home, so these PAC12 refs might be a little careful making belligerent shameful calls. The bad news is the defense is still hugely suspect. Opposing running backs are having a field day running & catching passes. And getting the ball carrier down seems to be the hardest thing this defense tries to do. This Arizona game should have never been this close. You would think the team would come out breathing fire after the Utah loss.
So again the Pac12 refs cost SC a touchdown. As we knew going into this season the defense lacks depth. Caleb Williams looks like a sophormore, at times great, at times fails to see his 3 or 4 option. A phenomenal turn around from last season. We should expect one or two more loses. But heck, a year ago if we were told SC would go 10-3 this year we would take it. So far SC is not progressing, lets hope November is better.
1.To Allen and the fellas: well, I hate to tell you, but “I told you so”. 2. defensive player MUST come to a hesitation step before trying to tackle the QB, in order to change direction. Qb can easily sidestep an careless on-rushing defensive player. it’s like taking candy from a baby. it is basic street football. They look like the keystone cops 3. two exceptional one-handed grabs by UofA early on kept them in the game. 4. Riley did not have to gamble w on-side kick and numerous long passes and a very long field goal. He is a… Read more »
Uh, ARIZ lost to USC for the 10th straight time. Typical Mildcats. Just like we all said would happen. I never for one second thought USC could lose the game, which says it all.
USC has a horrible as well as injured D and still managed to beat the lowly 3-5 Wildcats at home, again. Too bad ARIZ lost maybe their last chance ever to beat the Trojans in Tucson. Next week, ARIZ will stink it up again at UTAH, who also usually beats ARIZ (25-19 over the years).
the bottom line regarding SC defense: they have to do a better job at tackling, which includes over-running the play. Just like in tennis: one does not just keep running to the net; one must come to a “stop”, hesitation step, a split-second pause IN ORDER TO CHANGE DIRECTION. If not, QB’s easily side step the on coming rusher. And this frankly is one of the big differences between College and Pros.
The defense really needs to improve or we’re sunk. As it looks now we can’t beat Colorado. Someone needs to tell Caleb to take the first down shot instead of throwing into coverage. At any rate this is the last time I’m betting on USC.
LR has pair no doubt but the on side was ? even if they score on next possession making it 31-23 …go score on them then up 38-23 with a lot of time off clock
Like I said, we’re not there yet. However the future is bright. Personally I don’t think it involves Grinch. We need a better D Coordinator to compete with the SEC and top Big 10 teams.
Agree 100%. Grinch should be “tarmacked” like Kiffin was. Giving up 37 points to the Mildcats is unacceptable. Yes, USC had injuries in this game but that’s football. The main weakness on Defense is the poor coaching.
I’d agree with the hangover from Pendergast, Orlando and the Cat. Last year the Arizona QB played for Wazzu and SC’s Defense did a better job of containing him in Pullman. Go figure.
Or was the AZ offense that good. There were defensive shortcomings like coming after DeLaura so fast he easily sidestepped, but that pressure was there. To bad he is such a good scrambler, which he is darn good at it.
Missing two starting LB’s shows how thin our depth is on defense. #44 was too slow to be a spy for a QB like AZ played tonight. Cement shoes comes to mind.
Gerard Martinez
@gmartlive
·
6m
As good as the #USC defense played against Oregon State is as bad as they’ve played against Arizona. The paint on film room walls is not safe
To that end, running back Travis Dye could be called upon to do a little more. The Oregon transfer has been a crucial component of an offense that is tied for third in the Pac-12 in scoring (40.4 ppg) and is fourth in total (475.3 ypg) offense. Dye is second in the conference in rushing (647 yds.) and is tied with Addison for the team in touchdowns with seven (all rushing). Arizona has been particularly vulnerable against the run, giving up 207.4 yards per game (121st nationally), along with 20 rushing touchdowns (T-126th), which makes a Dye-centric game plan look even more appealing.
But the Wildcats won’t forget about quarterback Caleb Williams, who is coming off of an impressive showing (381 passing yds., 5 TDs) in the loss to Utah. Even though he may not have Addison, Williams has plenty of other options to throw to, including fellow Oklahoma transfer Mario Williams, who put up 145 receiving yards on just four catches against the Utes. Whoever he throws to, Caleb Williams should be able to have success against an Arizona defense that’s surrendered 14 touchdown passes and recorded just two interceptions.
Statistically speaking, the Wildcats aren’t too far behind USC on offense. Arizona is averaging 466 yards per game (sixth in Pac-12), although the scoring is a little further behind (31.6 ppg) in comparison. Still, the key for head coach Jedd Fisch’s team is to try and take advantage of a Trojans defense that could be down linebackers Eric Gentry (knee) and Ralen Goforth (hand). If either plays, it likely will come down to a game-time decision.
College football ……IT’S ALL ABOUT CASH $$$$$ PodcastOfChampions
@Pac12Podcast
·
2h
Whoa. #Big12 media deal already done. Nice increase in revenue despite losing Texas and Oklahoma.
Quote Tweet
John Ourand
@Ourand_SBJ
·
2h
The Big 12’s deal with ESPN and Fox Sports is done. SBJ has all the details.
My story with @SmittySBJ:
https://sportsbusinessjournal.com/SB-Blogs/Breaking-News/2022/10/Big-12-renews-media-deal-ESPN-Fox.aspx
Well #9 OSU lost and Wake Forest lost, so USC should have sole possession of the #9 spot today, right behind Oregon.
Riley should have kept the team on the field at the end of the first half until the officials took a review of what they screwed up. The fact the AZ had run into the tunnel should not have affected their very bad decision. This is the same crew that blew the Utah game. How is this possible week after week?
We had a list of 38 games on TV yesterday and 14 of them were upsets. That is not even considering the spreads. No wonder it is so hard to stay in the contest. Great day though.
Arizona was pretty good on offense, DeLaura was almost unstoppable. Those receivers they had are some of the best I have seen all season. It was their super bowl game, the game of the year, the one they really wanted to win against #10 in the nation, the vaunted USC Trojans. It is a sign USC has come back, that every game they get a team that has placed extreme importance on beating USC to make their season a success. They played to win and left nothing out there. USC is that good, to take week after week the absolute… Read more »
Note to SC’s defensive front 7: “containment, containment, containment” …Pete Carroll.
Bigger faster and more talented will help that – smoke a mirrors baby smoke a mirrors
I’ll take 10-2 right now ! 11-2 better yet
Almost speechless. The team and coaching has regressed, which is alarming coming off a tough loss and a bye. But, as others have said, a win and 7-1 record after last year, is something to be thankful for. The early season performances, discipline, and penalty reductions, falsely raised our expectations. I’m just not going to be surprised if we continue to play this way from here on out. I’m going to hope for an improved defensive effort. Fight on and good night
The good news is all remaining games are at home, so these PAC12 refs might be a little careful making belligerent shameful calls. The bad news is the defense is still hugely suspect. Opposing running backs are having a field day running & catching passes. And getting the ball carrier down seems to be the hardest thing this defense tries to do. This Arizona game should have never been this close. You would think the team would come out breathing fire after the Utah loss.
7-1, a win on the road with 5 starters out. I’ll take it.
if defense can go from really bad to just marginally bad, we will win out. Not sure it can
So again the Pac12 refs cost SC a touchdown. As we knew going into this season the defense lacks depth. Caleb Williams looks like a sophormore, at times great, at times fails to see his 3 or 4 option. A phenomenal turn around from last season. We should expect one or two more loses. But heck, a year ago if we were told SC would go 10-3 this year we would take it. So far SC is not progressing, lets hope November is better.
You think this is about as good as it is going to get this year?
After a bye with an inferior team they were just plain flat. Lack of depth is showing.
I think we are okay with AZ St and Cal. ucla could be trouble, and ND, who knows.
Colorado and Cal better be wins. The rest are 50-50.
Cal will be a battle – thankfully they do not an explosive O
CU will be like the ASU and Wazzu games
Not beating UCLA cannot stop them
ND 50/50 always start slow after playing ULCA the week before
All bets off if all these guys are still out
Colorado and Cal
Texas A&M making Old Miss (and their coach) nervous as I am typing this .
Kiffen squeacks it out!
1.To Allen and the fellas: well, I hate to tell you, but “I told you so”. 2. defensive player MUST come to a hesitation step before trying to tackle the QB, in order to change direction. Qb can easily sidestep an careless on-rushing defensive player. it’s like taking candy from a baby. it is basic street football. They look like the keystone cops 3. two exceptional one-handed grabs by UofA early on kept them in the game. 4. Riley did not have to gamble w on-side kick and numerous long passes and a very long field goal. He is a… Read more »
Thanks for your expert assessment
Uh, ARIZ lost to USC for the 10th straight time. Typical Mildcats. Just like we all said would happen. I never for one second thought USC could lose the game, which says it all.
USC has a horrible as well as injured D and still managed to beat the lowly 3-5 Wildcats at home, again. Too bad ARIZ lost maybe their last chance ever to beat the Trojans in Tucson. Next week, ARIZ will stink it up again at UTAH, who also usually beats ARIZ (25-19 over the years).
the bottom line regarding SC defense: they have to do a better job at tackling, which includes over-running the play. Just like in tennis: one does not just keep running to the net; one must come to a “stop”, hesitation step, a split-second pause IN ORDER TO CHANGE DIRECTION. If not, QB’s easily side step the on coming rusher. And this frankly is one of the big differences between College and Pros.
and yes, it is teachable with the players that you have!
The defense really needs to improve or we’re sunk. As it looks now we can’t beat Colorado. Someone needs to tell Caleb to take the first down shot instead of throwing into coverage. At any rate this is the last time I’m betting on USC.
We have absolutely nothing to worry about Colorado what worries me is the team we’re going to draw in our bowl game is going to destroy our Defense
Yeah, sucks giving up that last TD. 😫
LR has pair no doubt but the on side was ? even if they score on next possession making it 31-23 …go score on them then up 38-23 with a lot of time off clock
411 yards passing,210 yard rushing = 621 yards offense
williams 31 out of 45 with 0 int
Bryson Shaw 7 tackles and a Pic
We gave up 543 yards to the Arizona offense tonight ……That’s worrisome .
USC defense can make any team look like the number one team in the nation
Like I said, we’re not there yet. However the future is bright. Personally I don’t think it involves Grinch. We need a better D Coordinator to compete with the SEC and top Big 10 teams.
Agree 100%. Grinch should be “tarmacked” like Kiffin was. Giving up 37 points to the Mildcats is unacceptable. Yes, USC had injuries in this game but that’s football. The main weakness on Defense is the poor coaching.
I think it is lack of depth. Some of the subs were not fast enough, reminding me of last years lack of speed, especially at LB and edge.
we were missing 2 starting LB’s on a defense with no depth. This shortcoming is a hangover from the pathetic Tony Orlando and Cat era…..
I’d agree with the hangover from Pendergast, Orlando and the Cat. Last year the Arizona QB played for Wazzu and SC’s Defense did a better job of containing him in Pullman. Go figure.
Or was the AZ offense that good. There were defensive shortcomings like coming after DeLaura so fast he easily sidestepped, but that pressure was there. To bad he is such a good scrambler, which he is darn good at it.
Not suprising the D had issues since we were missing 3 players. At the end of the day, we got the W.
Missing two starting LB’s shows how thin our depth is on defense. #44 was too slow to be a spy for a QB like AZ played tonight. Cement shoes comes to mind.
Exactly Atl, this is where USC is this season. Next year we may have more depth with speed.
Way too close of a game. This program still has a long way to go.
SC offense should have scored more than 45 and the defense scares the heck out of me. Good night guys
Man I would greatly appreciate USC putting up another 7 points here right now.
Gerard Martinez
@gmartlive
·
6m
As good as the #USC defense played against Oregon State is as bad as they’ve played against Arizona. The paint on film room walls is not safe
# 10 Hudson has done well tonight
It appears that ref event at the end of the first half could have a huge impact on the outcome of this game.
“Ref Event”–only in the friggin’ PAC-12!
At least recover the onside kick ……..PLEASE !
I’m down 20K this week. I don’t care, just win.
just fight on Chris
Why is it USC cannot just shut someone down. This defense needs some new players coming in.
Especially interior D Line. We get nothing from them, nothing at all.
Well stop the 2 point try here .
Nope
How the hell did we let them drive down the field and score.
5 is really good for AZ.
Are you sh!tting me
Not sure why anybody would be surprised
I hope those DBs are okay, but is anyone looking for the the replay refs to call double-targeting on USC?
I think if they thought they can get away with that they would
99 in pass coverage. Scary
Need another turnover.
Love the way you think .
45-29 …..Breathe ………………..
That puts USC up by 16 with a line of 15.5. WooHoo!! Game ain’t over yet.
Currently we are an under but 2 points will make it an over.
FINALLY!!
Now they can run the ball and control the clock
Bringing it now
Let’s see if defense has any heart, because the offense is doing their jobs.
Kyle Ford having a night !
Clutch play
BIG Penalty by them !
Thank you ref
Gotta win the 4th Quarter …..Fight On !
I would suggest striking quickly for the td not eating up the clock yet.
Time to see a new quarterback Williams is making bad decisions every series
Really????
Crazy comment.
Not really crazy watch your recording Williams threw two bad 3rd down passes in a row. And defense is an open sewer they couldn’t stop shit.
our defense is banged up and not very good. This will be a dogfight and totally dependent on the offense.
They’re not hurt. Grinch is getting out coached.
Our two starting LB’s are not playing.
Lee is playing.
not much. Plus gentry and goforth are both out. Nomura play way more snaps than anyone.
Lee and Gentry are the starters. Goforth is 2nd string. Just saying.
I think Grinch is doing good for what he has to use. Getting pressure on the qb.
I think we are watching 2 completely different games. That’s like saying commie Biden is doing a good job in the White House.
Anybodies ballgame (As I start to bite my nails) .
USC is getting out coached.
What the onside kick started for AZ.
My goodness! What is happening here? Is Sarkissian here on the sideline?