Game Day — Feels Like Old Times

Notre Dame vs. USC Prediction: Fighting Irish Aim to Spoil Trojans’ Playoff Hopes

Both teams enter this showdown with momentum, but USC has more to play for and has lost four in a row to Notre Dame.

Kane Webb (Athlon Sports)  — USC’s transformation under head coach Lincoln Riley has pretty much gone according to plan with a spot in next week’s Pac-12 Championship Game already secure and the Trojans in position to get into the College Football Playoff. However, standing between them and those goals is a home date with historic rival Notre Dame, a team that has gotten its act together after a rough start under first-year head coach Marcus Freeman.

USC (10-1, 8-1 Pac-12) enters the weekend ranked sixth in the College Football Playoff rankings with two more games to impress the selection committee. Notre Dame’s record (8-3) may not be what Fighting Irish fans had hoped for prior to this season, but the team has won eight of nine after starting 0-2, including convincing victories over Clemson and North Carolina, the two teams that will play in next week’s ACC Championship Game. As a result, the Irish have climbed to 15th in the playoff rankings, which is a good thing for the Trojans’ résumé, provided they win.

There’s also the fact that Notre Dame has defeated USC four straight times to increase its lead in this rivalry series to 48-36-5. But those four wins came with Brian Kelly calling the shots for the Irish (and Clay Helton leading the Trojans), and now it’s Freeman in charge. This is it for Notre Dame until the bowl invites are handed out while USC has more business to attend to next Friday in Las Vegas, but the Trojans know they can’t get caught looking ahead if they want any shot of playing for the national title. In other words, it’s pretty much business as usual for this rivalry.

No. 15 Notre Dame at No. 6 USC

Kickoff: Saturday, Nov. 26 at 4:30 p.m. PT
TV: ABC
Live Stream: fuboTV
Spread: USC -5.5
Tickets: As low as $85 on SITickets.com

When Notre Dame Has the Ball

An early season-ending injury to Tyler Buchner thrust Drew Pyne (10) into the starting quarterback role, and the sophomore has made the most of his opportunity. He’s put up solid numbers (61.8 percent completion rate, 19 TDs, 5 INTs), but most importantly, he’s 8-1 as the starter. He doesn’t post prolific passing numbers (170.3 ypg), but he’s been what this offense has needed to find stability and turn things around after starting 0-2.

Pyne has faced some good defenses (namely Clemson), but he also hasn’t been asked to do a lot and is still relatively inexperienced. USC defensive coordinator Alex Grinch would be wise to try and exploit Pyne’s youthfulness by dialing up the pressure and hope his unit can continue to be opportunistic. The Trojans have generated 24 takeaways this season (fifth in the FBS), including 18 interceptions, the most of any team in the country. The problem is that the rest of the numbers (257.8 passing ypg allowed, 17 TDs) aren’t that great, as USC has been surviving with a “bend extremely far, but don’t break” strategy.

One player the Trojans definitely need to account for is tight end Michael Mayer. The Irish’s leading receiver (59 rec., 711 yds., 7 TDs) and one of the best in the nation at his position, the 6-foot-4, 265-pound Mayer is particularly a handful in the red zone. Outside of Jayden Thomas (3), no other Irish player has more than two touchdown catches, so Pyne clearly looks for his tight end when he gets close to the end zone.

The other part of the equation for Notre Dame’s offense is the ground game, which also found its footing once Pyne took over at quarterback. During its current five-game winning streak, the Irish have run for 220-plus yards in each contest except against Navy (66 yds. on 34 carries). Audric Estime (782 yds., 11 TDs) and Logan Diggs (698, 2) have been the primary ground gainers, but Pyne (119, 2) can make things happen with his legs too.

The Trojans haven’t stopped teams on the ground either (147.2 rushing ypg allowed, 21 TDs), but not many can keep up with USC’s explosive offense. So the key for Grinch and his charges is to limit Notre Dame’s big plays, force some turnovers, and make the Irish settle for field goals instead of touchdowns when they get in the red zone.

When USC Has the Ball

If it seems like this particular section is shorter than the others, that’s because it is. USC’s offense has been prodigious throughout 2022. Even with the heart of the team, Travis Dye, going down with a season-ending leg injury at the worst possible time, fellow running back (and intra-conference transfer) Austin Jones (6) found a way to pick up Dye’s contributions and added a little of his own. That’s really been the story of this USC team. Riley has found a way to make sure everyone on this offense has their day in the sun, contributes, and feels good about what they bring to the table.

USC just needs to stay the course on offense. The Heisman Trophy campaign is in full motion for quarterback Caleb Williams, who is considered by some (The Athletic) as the clear-cut front-runner. But just like his team, Williams has two more chances to impress the voters, the first coming against a Notre Dame defense that has improved as the season’s gone on. During the five-game winning streak, the Irish have held teams to 18.2 points and 280.4 yards per contest. And these numbers are inflated quite a bit by the 32 points and 363 yards (255 rushing) given up to Navy a couple of weeks ago. Along those lines, quality of competition faced certainly is a factor, as this will by far be the most potent offense Notre Dame’s D has faced since the season-opening loss to Ohio State when the Buckeyes scored 21 points and totaled 395 yards.

Besides racking up the numbers (3,480 passing yards, 33 TDs), Williams and the entire Trojans offense have done an excellent job of protecting the ball. Even though USC is averaging 43 points and 513 yards per game (third and second in the nation, respectively), there have been just four turnovers (3 INTs). Creating takeaways is not the Irish’s strong suit in the first place (13 total), but one thing this defense can do is get to the quarterback (33 sacks), so that’s something to keep an eye on. The Trojans have given up 21 sacks, but Williams also is 16th in the country in pass attempts (385 in 11 games).

Final Analysis

USC has come too far for anything else. Riley will have the Trojans focused on Notre Dame and only Notre Dame. The Pac-12 Championship Game is next week, and next week doesn’t matter this week. The Trojans don’t need any extra reminders, though. Notre Dame week comes with its own set of expectations and everyone from Williams to the student assistants knows their responsibilities during this week.

Williams followed Riley here to win the biggest games on the biggest stages, and a completely sold-out Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum against your biggest rival certainly qualifies.

Even with their good, but not great, season, the Irish are going to be a tough out. Freeman will know that he can wipe out the filth of the Marshall loss with the savory victory of a Trojan defeat. Whether or not Notre Dame can deliver said defeat is an entirely different matter. USC will be ready for absolute war against the Irish and Freeman should expect nothing but Riley’s best. The Trojans know this is the path to taking that next step and they appear ready to take it.

Prediction: USC 38, Notre Dame 26

athlonsports.com

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TrojanRJJ
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November 27, 2022 7:28 am

Quite a day! I certainly did not see 11-1 coming. And, another Heisman. Caleb was electric yesterday and Stroud was not. An amazing year. A key stat for this year was turnovers. Look at the last 4 games. Against AZ, we got one turnover (an interception) and scored a TD based on it, and won by one TD; same for Cal, one turnover, scored a TD on it, and won by one TD; against UCLA we got 4 turnovers, and we won by a FG; against ND, we got 2 turnovers, a fumble deep in our own territory and then… Read more »

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November 27, 2022 9:05 am
Reply to  TrojanRJJ

As you say RJJ, amazing improvement over years past when it comes to turnovers. SC has had the fewest turnovers on offense that I can ever remember, and the opportunities that the defense has created or benefited from has been the difference in many wins. It’s definitely indicative of the coaching and culture change in discipline, focus, and accountability from this staff.

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November 26, 2022 9:49 pm

The National coach of the year has to be down to Riley and Sonny Dykes, right? You can make a case for both, but I don’t think Dykes has had the pressure that comes with a blue blood turnaround that Riley had to overcome. Not the same expectations for sure. Both are deserving

volunteerTrojan
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November 26, 2022 9:21 pm

What a fantastic win tonight!!! CW deserves all the accolades that come his way, but I have to say, Austin Jones is running like a man with something to prove. Without his production tonight, I’m not so sure we win. It’s a nail better at best. His runs for first downs, and big runs on first down repeatedly gave us second and short, a luxury that has at times been scarce this year. Great team win, but AJ has my vote for unsung hero of the game.

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November 26, 2022 9:44 pm

For Jones to step up when Dye went down, and to match his production, has been the big key to both wins. No drop off.

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November 26, 2022 9:51 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

Yes, I can see Riley getting him out in space on wheel routes and Caleb pitch options like we saw tonight

UtahTrojan
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November 26, 2022 10:48 pm

He gets past his Freshman mistakes (didn’t make any tonight) and he will have a great career.

Rock2112
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November 26, 2022 9:12 pm

The Duckies must be going crazy watching this Apple Cup.

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November 26, 2022 9:15 pm
Reply to  Rock2112

Looks like a barn-burner. Already 28-24 Huskies and only first half.

San Diego Trojan
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November 26, 2022 9:07 pm

I wonder just how much more the Oklahoma Alumni and fan base hate and resent Riley and USC?

Rock2112
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November 26, 2022 9:13 pm

Wait until they see Caleb hoist that stiff-armed thingamajiggy.

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November 26, 2022 10:49 pm
Reply to  Rock2112

It would be priceless to see

Steveg
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November 26, 2022 8:50 pm

Now that Day has lost two out of four games against Michigan will the fans there be ready for a change. Day is now in control of all his own picks, he built this team, the one he inherited is gone. I was not impressed with their play on either side of the ball today.

Rock2112
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November 26, 2022 8:46 pm

In all the celebrating that we deserve to enjoy as long suffering victims of the Sarkiffin/Heltonian regimes, let us take a moment to appreciate what can be accomplished when the central tenets of focus, hard work and accountability are imposed on any endeavor, in and out of sports. When you take those away, you get what we’ve been suffering from for years as Trojan fans. I think every single one of us is amazed that these things could be re-established in our program in just one offseason. That’s the magic of a “get-it” guy like LR. Every thing he has… Read more »

Steveg
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November 26, 2022 8:51 pm
Reply to  Rock2112

I know I have sure been dazzled.

HOF19
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November 26, 2022 8:44 pm

How full will this place be when SC steps on the field >>>>> From Wikipedia Allegiant stadium Las Vegas website……..Stadium Capacity NFL Football: 65,000
(expandable to 71,835) …..We will see I guess …..Fight On !!!!!

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November 26, 2022 8:52 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

No surprise there. He was rumored to go there almost as soon as Herm was fired. He has a connection to the university, but I’m not sure what it is. I wonder how many other coaches he is taking with him. No love lost for Oregon. I’m kinda happy that Dan Lanning has to start over again on offense. Especially recruiting.

Rock2112
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November 26, 2022 9:09 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

That decision to go on fourth down on their side of the field was criminal stupidity, and the ultimate difference in the game. I have been waiting for the moment when some of that extreme 4th down arrogance burned someone bad. We need a few of those incidents to dial back what I think has been an over-swing in terms of coaches’ willingness to do that. Never do that on your side of the field — especially in a game you are leading. I was glad that backfired, even though I thought it would be better for SC’s resume to… Read more »

Rock2112
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November 26, 2022 8:35 pm

That Athlon Sports prediction was pretty darn good, heh? If you took three points from us and gave them to ND, I would have been on the money!

Golden Trojan
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November 26, 2022 8:37 pm
Reply to  Rock2112

Thanks Rock, I bet against you even if my bet got in too late.

Rock2112
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November 26, 2022 8:39 pm
Reply to  Golden Trojan

Good work! I am quite proud of my “team player” approach here, betting knowing I would lose just to avoid jinxing my team. It worked to perfection, and I officially lost every bet I made on an SC game all season! I am the happiest loser in the history of mankind!!!

Steveg
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November 26, 2022 8:33 pm
Steveg
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November 26, 2022 8:34 pm
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Gomer is a distant memory, soon to be completely forgotten.

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November 26, 2022 8:35 pm
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Tied for 4th in the Sun Belt East and 6th best record in the conference. To think where we were and where we are. Thank the Lord!

Chris
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November 26, 2022 8:49 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

I think he overachieved. Weren’t they supposed to be terrible? Like I’ve said 100 times, I don’t root for or against him. Just glad he’s no longer here.

HOF19
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November 26, 2022 8:26 pm

Last July Both Colin Cowherd and Jim Rome said on their shows ….”It is HARD for a sports team to get (and even harder) KEEP the attention of the residents of Los Angeles” ….. SO Does USC have Los Angeles’s attention YET ?????

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November 26, 2022 8:37 pm
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Colin Cowherd is going to be insufferable and giddy beyond belief, on Monday. He’s admitted as much. It’s good for us that a popular national sports personality is such a homer for SC. Helps recruiting and profile

Steveg
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November 26, 2022 8:20 pm

It was great to have Gentry back, he ended up the leading tackler.
Jones netted 154 yds rushing.

Last edited 1 month ago by Steveg
volunteerTrojan
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November 26, 2022 8:16 pm

Defeated both our main rivals in year 1 of the rebuild. Can’t wait to see us fully built. LR worth every penny of his salary.

I’d like to see that 1st half defense play a full game.

2 down. 3 to go to be national champions.

Steveg
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November 26, 2022 8:15 pm

It is going to take me a few hours to unwind from this game. Next Friday will be even more intense. I hope we get Utah. Just to make amends.

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November 26, 2022 8:07 pm

During the depressing Helton years, to think that we could be part of the National conversation with the playoffs and a Heisman candidate, this fast, is so unbelievable. If you are a 5 star QB or skilled offensive recruit, why wouldn’t you want to come play for Riley? If we can recruit skill and depth on defense, watch out opponents for years to come. It’s now realistic that we will hit the ground running in the Big 10, and challenge for their crown right away.

volunteerTrojan
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November 26, 2022 8:10 pm

So Purdue is in the b10 championship game. And we’re supposed to be afraid of that conference?

Steveg
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November 26, 2022 8:13 pm

I keep thinking that too. What is there to be afraid of in the B1G?

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November 26, 2022 8:14 pm

Ha! No way. In fact, if they don’t realign, SC and UCLA will probably end up in that division of the conference. Easy pickings!

HOF19
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November 26, 2022 8:06 pm

So now ……Wash vs Wash State .

HOF19
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November 26, 2022 8:03 pm

Herbstreit has us in his Playoff rankings right now .

Last edited 1 month ago by HOF19
TrojanMPA90
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November 26, 2022 8:02 pm

What a team and what a season we’ve had. 4-8 to 11-1. One more game and we’re Pac-12 Champs

misterusc
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November 26, 2022 8:01 pm

A big win like this can only help with recruiting. Between 50 and 60 were at the game tonight.

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November 26, 2022 11:06 pm
Reply to  misterusc

Anybody see a list of who was there?

Chris
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November 26, 2022 7:59 pm

i forgot that we have about 40 visitors tonight. How could they watch this game and team and not want to be part of it?

Chris
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November 26, 2022 7:57 pm

Everything about this season was better than anything we could have dreamed up. Just awesome. Fight on!

Steveg
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November 26, 2022 7:59 pm
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Hey, it ain’t over yet Chris

Chris
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November 26, 2022 8:00 pm
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Truth!

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November 26, 2022 7:56 pm

I hope we came out of this game without any major injuries

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November 26, 2022 7:55 pm

Who gets the onside kick? Korey Foreman!

Steveg
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November 26, 2022 7:56 pm
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NO. Terrell Bynum

ATL D.D.S.
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November 26, 2022 7:57 pm
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yes bynum

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November 26, 2022 7:59 pm
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Annoucers got the call wrong.

ATL D.D.S.
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November 26, 2022 7:57 pm
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No it was the receiver who wears zero on offense.

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November 26, 2022 7:54 pm

Beyond anything I could have ever dreamed this year to be 11-1, beat both rivals, and our only loss being by one point on the road. If the playoff committee, only drops Ohio State to #4, ahead of us. Then we know the fix is in

UtahTrojan
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November 26, 2022 7:54 pm

Onside kick?

HOF19
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November 26, 2022 7:54 pm

“Mr.Ohio State” graduate Kirk Herbstreit “USC 60 Minutes away from the Nat’l Champ Playoff” AND he just added reasons why WE deserve the spot and NOT his Ohio State team …..Hey He is just being REAL .

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November 26, 2022 7:54 pm
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Miracles do happen….

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November 26, 2022 7:53 pm

cheap TD

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November 26, 2022 7:53 pm

You knew that was going to happen. Our DB’s are playing way to soft right now.

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November 26, 2022 7:53 pm

Pyne is a good QB.

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November 26, 2022 7:52 pm

Heirbstreit not pushing Ohio St.

Steveg
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November 26, 2022 7:54 pm
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That is a surprise for sure

ATL D.D.S.
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November 26, 2022 7:51 pm

Finally a sack!

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November 26, 2022 7:50 pm

Don’t give up a cheap TD here!

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November 26, 2022 7:53 pm
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Yep, TD.

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November 26, 2022 7:49 pm

Poor little Domers. Found out what the poor little ruins already knew.

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November 26, 2022 7:49 pm

Who do we want for our next game?

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November 26, 2022 7:50 pm
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Whoever it is they are worthy but we can take them.

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November 26, 2022 7:50 pm
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I like the revenge factor. Utah is a different team away from home.

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November 26, 2022 7:52 pm
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It is hard to beat a team twice in a season….

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November 26, 2022 9:05 pm
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Utah didn’t beat us. I’ll just say it. We won that game and the refs handed it to the home team. But I am with UT’s statement above. Utah is a different team away from home (like Oregon). I am not saying it would be easy, but we can beat either one of those teams with our “A” effort.

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November 26, 2022 7:46 pm

Think about where we were a year ago and how far we’ve come. This is so much fun!

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November 26, 2022 7:46 pm

LSU goes down, we are at least #4!

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November 26, 2022 7:47 pm
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OSU and LSU lost big by the way.

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November 26, 2022 7:47 pm
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Kelly choked!

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November 26, 2022 7:47 pm
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Playoffs are ours to lose.

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November 26, 2022 7:44 pm

H E I S M A N

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November 26, 2022 7:43 pm

Caleb is the Heisman winner now!

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November 26, 2022 7:43 pm

NFL Front offices saying >>>”Dang he ain’t in this years draft !!!!!”.

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November 26, 2022 7:45 pm
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Thank the Lord he has one more season!

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November 26, 2022 7:45 pm
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They have already said he would be this years number 1 pick.

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November 26, 2022 7:43 pm

Caleb!

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November 26, 2022 7:42 pm

Game, set, and match. New York, here we come!!!

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November 26, 2022 7:42 pm

That was easy

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November 26, 2022 7:42 pm

Caleb take it yourself and run around end

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November 26, 2022 7:43 pm

Nice Call, SDT

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November 26, 2022 7:42 pm

Go for it!

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TrojanMPA90(@trojanmpa90)
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November 26, 2022 7:41 pm

Need to score a TD for style points and to put the game away

UtahTrojan
Member
Diamond Member
UtahTrojan(@utahtrojan)
Offline
November 26, 2022 7:41 pm

Do all
of our plays go backwards now?