USC Football Totally Guts the Pac-12…

What’s next for the devastated Pac-12: Survival scenarios in a world without USC and UCLA

The conference has options; none of them are good

Jon Wilner (OC Register —  The Pac-12 Conference has existed, in some form or another, for 107 years.

After the thunderous news Thursday that USC and UCLA are becoming members of the Big Ten starting in 2024, the future of the conference is very much in doubt.

What’s next for the shattered Pac-12, which was caught completely off guard by the planned departures of the schools in its largest media market and its most fertile recruiting ground?

Without an anchor in Southern California, the league is a shell of its former self.

Should it expand?

Is a merger possible?

First, let’s be clear: When it comes to conference realignment, nothing is done until it’s done — and sometimes not even then.

But there are a slew of scenarios to consider:

The success of their football teams makes the Ducks and Huskies potential targets.

UW also brings a significant media market and academic bonafides, while Oregon has the Nike affiliation and a national following.

For scheduling purposes, the Big Ten might determine it’s better off with four West Coast schools.

Of course, its media partners would have to agree.

— What happens to Cal and Stanford?

The California Four, which has served as the heart of the Pac-12 for eons, is no more.

The Bears and Cardinal excel at Olympic sports, but neither possesses the football credentials — either the on-field success or the fan affinity that generates TV ratings — to be considered must-haves if the Big Ten intends to take in more schools.

Abandoned by their partner (USC for Stanford) and their sister (UCLA for Cal), the Bay Area schools most likely will remain in the reconfigured Pac-12.

— Could the ‘Four Corners’ schools be next?

Arizona and Arizona State joined the Pac-12 in 1978, while Utah and Colorado came aboard in 2011.

Without the connection to Southern California provided by USC and UCLA, the quartet could look for options together.

The best of those might be the Big 12, to create a league that owns the Central and Mountain Time Zones.

But this development is extremely damaging for all four of those schools given their reliance on Southern California for recruiting and on the L.A. schools as prime sources of TV revenue.

— Are there expansion options available?

Yes, there are several. But none of them are ideal.

The Pac-12 could add the top-tier football teams from the Mountain West, such as San Diego State, Boise State or Fresno State. But those schools bring little in the way of media value.

It could attempt to poach the Big 12 schools such as BYU, TCU or Houston.

But what motivation would those universities have to leave the Big 12, which is suddenly better positioned strategically and competitively than the Pac-12?

The options are few, in part because of the paucity of football schools in major media hubs in the Western third of the country.

— Is an outright merger in the works?

One year ago, the Big 12 was in an equally dire situation, having lost its biggest football brands, Texas and Oklahoma, to the SEC.

It reached out to the Pac-12 and asked about a merger, only to have the offer rebuffed.

At that point, the Big 12 scanned the landscape and decided to expand, adding Cincinnati, Brigham Young, Houston and UCF to create stability for its post-Texas/Oklahoma existence.

Now, the Pac-12 is desperate.

On numerous levels, it makes sense to seek a merger with the Big 12 that would give rise to a conference with 22 teams and span three time zones.

But would anyone pay for it?

The prime driver of conference realignment is the revenue generated by media rights contracts, particularly with Fox and ESPN.

The Pac-12’s misguided media strategy under former commissioner Larry Scott created the revenue chasm that now exists with the Big Ten and set the stage for USC and UCLA to depart.

In the Big Ten, they are expected to receive more than $100 million in annual payments from the conference — approximately twice what they might collect by staying in the Pac-12

How much would the TV networks pay for a merged Pac-12 and Big 12?

Certainly not as much as they are paying the Big Ten or SEC — not even close to that amount.

But at this point, expectations must be ramped down.

It’s about survival.

Time to call ESPN and beg for a lifeboat.

ocregister.com

________

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Steveg
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July 2, 2022 4:41 pm

I thought when USC hired LR and the internet exploded it was the biggest deal I had seen in a long time. Wow how I have just been totally blown away by the buzz the USC move has made. Even the political channels on tv are talking about it. Every radio show, podcast, and print writer have had several days of nothing but USC. Right now it is great to be a Trojan. Texas and Oklahoma got some ink on their move, but NOTHING has shaken the world of college football like this has.

HOF19
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July 2, 2022 10:28 am

A family member of mine made some comments to me (pretty much congratulating USC for this move) ……But is VERY concerned about his teams (Boston College) ACC Conference future now (I read where ACC just signed some sort of 12 year contract deal ). It will be interesting on what the ACC does over the next few years .

dwc13
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July 2, 2022 2:19 pm
Reply to  HOF19

Boston College is on an island. It’s the only P5 team in New England and it’s in the ACC. The ACC members gave a Grant of Rights to the conference that expires in 2036, I believe. So members who are thinking about leaving the conference before the expiration would (likely) have to pay a hefty termination fee. Of course, the devil is in the details. And you can bet an army of lawyers working for various parties are currently reviewing the various contracts.

Jamaica
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July 2, 2022 10:53 am
Reply to  Allen Wallace

I hate to repeat myself, but the PAC-12 wasn’t going anywhere in staying relevant in the changing landscape of CFB. The baggage the LA schools have had to lug around made up of the majority of member schools unwilling or unable to sufficiently pony up for their athletic programs let alone just football, save Oregon and possibly Utah, to truly compete. In fact, the PAC-12 has been living a charmed life up to the present. They have always held onto the coattails of the LA schools and not much else. And their attitude is misguided toward their sugar daddy (USC… Read more »

Golden Trojan
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July 2, 2022 2:45 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

My guess would be some consolidation between the Big 12, Pac”10″ and Mountain West. Funny, the Mountain West could end up a stronger conference than they are now. The Zonies love to come to San Diego anyway so they might as well join the MW, Utah can go back to the MW as well, the Buffs can go back to the Big12, the rest I really don’t care. Oregon could end up the big loser. The Ducks really squandered their opportunity when USC was down.

Steveg
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July 2, 2022 4:21 pm
Reply to  Jamaica

How did you come to the conclusion WA didn’t hire a really good coach and doesn’t support him. Take a look at DeBoer’s record if you haven’t, you will do a double take just like I did. He is the real thing and probably the best bargain in college football. Let’s see how WA does these next two years.

Steveg
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July 1, 2022 6:21 pm

If I remember right Tobias Raymond was a no star commit a few weeks ago. He is now a high three star. It looks like all of the three stars could become 4 stars by signing day.

dwc13
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July 1, 2022 6:08 pm

Ohio State & Nebraska alum here. First off, welcome USC (and UCLA) to the B1G Ten. I can’t think of 2 better programs to join the conference. Hopefully a couple of other Pac 12 schools (Stanford & Cal) will be joining in the near future, as I still have friends in the Bay Area from when I lived there years ago. See y’all in the Horseshoe in a few years.

dwc13
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July 1, 2022 6:46 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

Thanks for the welcome, but did you have to bring up Cooper? Every program has its dark ages. I wasn’t going to mention Ted Tollner, but…lol. The end game for the B1G Ten is getting Notre Dame to join the conference. USC and Stanford are traditional rivals of UND. The Irish have also played many games against Michigan, Purdue, MSU and Northwestern over the years. Getting enough traditional rivals of Notre Dame into the B1G Ten (along with $$$$$ from the new media rights deal that will be signed) might be enough to convince the powers in South Bend that… Read more »

dwc13
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July 2, 2022 12:58 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

Now that USC and UCLA are onboard, I don’t think the football programs at Stanford and Cal matter that much. In 2024, the B1G Ten will have 4 of the 8 generally recognized blue blood football programs: USC, Ohio State, Nebraska and Michigan. That’s 1 more than the SEC (Alabama, Oklahoma & Texas) will have when the Sooners and Longhorns join the conference. Notre Dame is the other blue blood. If Nebraska (finally) gets its act together, history has shown the Huskers can win big. It’s not facilities or fan support that has been the issue in Lincoln since 2011… Read more »

dwc13
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July 2, 2022 1:20 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

I just re-read your post. True, Stanford might not prioritize being overly successful to the point the football program detracts from its reputation as an academic powerhouse (as former B1G Ten member UChicago was wary of decades ago). Even so, Jim Harbaugh still had a decent run in Palo Alto. Don’t worry, I’m not going to bring up the game against #1 USC. At the same time, Stanford also wants to maintain its competitiveness in the Director’s Cup. That might be more difficult to accomplish in a non-P5 conference, if that’s what happens to the Pac XII. Even if the… Read more »

volunteerTrojan
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July 2, 2022 4:46 pm
Reply to  dwc13

Uh…thanks for not mentioning the USC game…

Steveg
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July 1, 2022 5:31 pm

As schools get brought into different conferences it should create new recruiting channels with players being able to go to someone different and still get to play during prime time on tv. I can see where USC is going to benefit hugely from this decision to go B1G. In the end it could lead to more parity due to the talent being spread out among more schools. Anything to get rid of the Alabama-Clemson-tOSU status quo year after year.

volunteerTrojan
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July 1, 2022 6:02 pm
Reply to  Steveg

Well, USC will have a personal opportunity to end tOSU’s reign atop the BigXX.

dwc13
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July 2, 2022 9:07 pm

Competition is good. Just a hunch — I’m going to assume USC would rather play the real OSU, not the impostor program hiding out in Corvallis. BTW, I dislike using ‘tOSU’ because it was Ohio State University when I was there.

I look forward to many epic games between USC and Ohio State & Nebraska. Also, the USC-UCLA game just got a lot more interesting from my perspective.

volunteerTrojan
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July 2, 2022 9:24 pm
Reply to  dwc13

I hear you, I never was down with Miami’s THE U either.

I’m really looking forward to great BigXX matchups nearly every weekend.

I appreciate the fact that the Big10 never had any geographical connotations in its name. Missouri in the Southeast? Colorado near the Pacific? Big is just, well, Big. And just got bigger. But, I sure hope the Big conference eventually figures out how to count. 😉

Golden Trojan
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July 1, 2022 5:16 pm

Listened to a little sports radio driving around San Diego today. Lots of talk about what ifs for SDSU, the carcass of the Pac 12, is the Mountain West now in the drivers seat for the rest of the west, whos going to the Big 12, even talk Oregon could go independent (doubt it). USC and Bohn really gave people something to talk about this Holiday weekend.

Golden Trojan
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July 1, 2022 5:17 pm
Reply to  Golden Trojan

Oh the most hilarious, 3-4 years from now, Rose Bowl matchups USC v Oregon or USC v SDSU!😂

San Diego Trojan
July 1, 2022 4:42 pm

I really hope the conference commissioners and TV execs move to an 8-12 expanded playoff sooner rather than later. There are going to be many years where there are going to be more than one worthy team in the Big 10 and SEC alone who are going to have a loss or two just from playing superior competition. I would also love to see a power conference ban against scheduling Division 2 schools to fill out a schedule

Steveg
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July 1, 2022 3:53 pm

It really looks like we are going to end up with about 50 or so teams in two conferences, with the rest in lower tier conferences. If B1G were to go after Miami, FL St, the AZ schools, a Texas team(TCU) and OK St they would virtually dominate the US except for the south which would be the SEC. Perhaps they go after Clemson, NC, Virginia Tech, Iowa State, Pitt, Wake Forest, and Louisville. That’s a 28 team conference that would give the SEC a genuine run for the championships year in and year out. We can watch now and… Read more »

volunteerTrojan
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July 1, 2022 4:25 pm
Reply to  Steveg

It’s probably wishful thinking on my part, but I’d like the expansion to top out at 16 team conferences. This makes for nice scheduling possibilities that allow you play your conference teams regularly, which builds rivalries. 50 team conferences, IMO, are meaningless, it would just be a huge pool of teams, and rarely would some of the teams ever meet on the field, which is pretty much what we have today with out of conference scheduling producing the occasional UCLA-LSU matchup, for example. Also, by bringing in those teams you mention, the attraction of great conference matchups every weekend gets… Read more »

Steveg
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July 1, 2022 4:57 pm

No way, a 50 team conference would be stupid and impossible to run. They are looking at going to 20 in the B1G though, right now.

volunteerTrojan
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July 1, 2022 6:04 pm
Reply to  Steveg

Yeah, agreed, I still think 16 is kind of the sweet spot before getting so big as to diminish the benefits.

Steveg
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July 1, 2022 5:36 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

Still waiting to see who is the first Oregon player into the portal.

dwc13
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July 1, 2022 6:26 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

The B1G Ten prides itself on reaching a consensus when its members discus important matters. Thus, there is no “veto” power held by a school. First and foremost, AAU membership at the time of consideration is a basically a requirement (Notre Dame is the likely exception), so Oregon checks that box. The Ducks football program has been very competitive the past 25 or so years. Check. However, at times the Ducks sport some seriously gaudy uniforms, so that’s a strike. Unknown whether Oregon and Oregon State would be a package; if so, that would be a deal breaker. Then there’s… Read more »

Steveg
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July 1, 2022 4:12 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

I thought ND had a deal with the ACC that if they joined a conference permanently it would be the ACC? Anyone know anything more?

Steveg
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July 1, 2022 5:02 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

You take Oregon and UW, what about Stanford and Utah. We all know Cal will fit nicely into the new Mountain West when they expand. I just can’t see the Pac doing anything to remain viable to television contracts. Fox may throw them a little money but not as much as they did get.

volunteerTrojan
Major Genius
July 1, 2022 6:11 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

Personally, if football is the main consideration, I think the Big10 should have brought in USC and Notre Dame and left UCLA behind. USC alone gives the conference access to the So Cal market. UCLA’s 13 fans and their pitiful program don’t bring a thing to the table. As far as basketball, UCLA hasn’t won it all in nearly 30 years, having just a few deep runs in that time period. Their value is ancient history.

dwc13
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July 1, 2022 6:53 pm

From my perspective, the B1G Ten didn’t want to leave another conference with an opportunity to gain a foothold in the talent rich SoCal market. Including UCLA also eliminates the current Pac 12 from SoCal.

volunteerTrojan
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July 1, 2022 8:05 pm
Reply to  dwc13

OK, I’ll buy that, but it also shows that the B10 doesn’t understand the SoCal football dynamics. Most of the time, the past 6-8 years being one of a few exceptional eras, USC out recruits UCLA 10-1 for the area prime talent. I.e., they don’t leave much market left for the Bruins. So, the invitation was unnecessary to get what they were after. But so be it, the little gutties have ridden the Trojan coattails for most of their existence, so why stop now. Would love to have had the B16 number at 16 with ND instead of the gutties.… Read more »

dwc13
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July 2, 2022 2:14 pm

Thanks for the welcome. In the end, USC wanted UCLA to come along for the ride. Having a familiar dance partner, so to speak. If you look at teams joining new conferences in the past, it’s generally easier done in pairs. Going back to 1993, when Penn State joined the B1G Ten, it was pretty awkward (on both sides) for many years. Had Maryland or Pitt also joined back then — long-time rivals of PSU — I think the transition would have been much better for Penn State and the B1G Ten. Same with Nebraska joining the conference in 2011.… Read more »

volunteerTrojan
Major Genius
July 2, 2022 4:50 pm
Reply to  dwc13

Your logic is sound, but you must realize the intense hatred we have for UCLA. We really wouldn’t mind seeing them flounder their way to eternal obscurity. 😅

dwc13
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July 2, 2022 9:20 pm

A Top 10 USC and Top 25 UCLA will help the B1G Ten close the gap with the SEC. We need more strong football programs so the CFP SEleCtion Committee will have no choice but to select a B1G Ten team or two.

So no eternal obscurity for UCLA, please. Leave that to Rutgers and Indiana.

volunteerTrojan
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July 1, 2022 1:00 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

I’m thinking that possibly Manning props up Sark for a few years like Darnold did The Cat.

Steveg
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July 1, 2022 3:39 pm

He already has Patterson as an assistant propping him up.

volunteerTrojan
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July 1, 2022 8:06 pm
Reply to  Steveg

😅

RialtoTrojan
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July 1, 2022 10:46 am

Okay another Elephant in the room, or maybe just Tusk, does anyone have any idea how this affects the TMB? In the past collection cans were passed at the coliseum to help pay for the band trip to Notre Dame. Now I imagine the trips will be five or six times a year, making band a very expensive elective. Some might not think the band is important, but they have been steadfast supporters of the football program since I can remember (and maybe even longer) The band attends every game, but will it be a pep band in the future?… Read more »

Golden Trojan
Major Genius
July 1, 2022 12:32 pm
Reply to  RialtoTrojan

Are you kidding, who in their right mind thinks the band is not important. Tribute To Troy, Fight On, Conquest drives opposing teams and their fans absolutely NUTS! It is a no brainer that the band must travel. A OOH A OOH, A OOH A OOH, BEAT, THE ______!

John Weld
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July 1, 2022 10:00 am

Message from President Carol L. Folt to the USC Community Dear Trojan Community,   I am writing with exciting news about the future for our student-athletes and university community. We are announcing today that USC will join the Big Ten Conference, with plans to begin membership in August 2024. This decision was made after serious deliberation and analysis, and with great appreciation and respect for our Pac-12 colleagues with whom we have enjoyed a wonderful history and relationship.   We have worked hard over the past three years to ground university decisions in what is best for our students. One… Read more »

John Weld
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July 1, 2022 9:59 am

Statement from Director of Athletics Mike Bohn   I am beyond thrilled that USC will be joining the Big Ten Conference. We are thankful to the Big Ten Council of Presidents and Chancellors and Commissioner Kevin Warren for the opportunity to become a member of the oldest and most storied conference in the country. We will officially begin our membership in August 2024.   We intend to end our membership in the Pac-12 conference when the Pac-12’s current media rights agreement expires in August 2024. We look forward to competing these next two years in the Pac-12 and want to… Read more »

HOF19
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July 1, 2022 9:38 am

ESPN is interviewing Brock Huard (Univ Washington Alumni QB ) just now and he just said it took 24 hours for him to believe this is REAL ……That being said he is giving USC and UCLA thumbs up (and almost) congrats for making this move .

HOF19
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July 1, 2022 9:17 am

Are current USC players asking their coaches what this means for them ? (and I totally understand if they feel the need to ask ).

Golden Trojan
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July 1, 2022 8:36 am

Mike Bohn has done more for USC athletics in two and a half years than the ex-jock ADs of the past 30 years. What did Mike Garrett do in 17 years? Pete Carroll falls in his lap and then leads SC to the worst sanctions in college history. Pat Haden and Lynn Swann? They gave us Cutty Sark and The Cat while caretakers of a corrupt crumbling Athletic Department. It took Bohn 2 years to repair the Athletic Department of the decay left by the last 3 clowns. In the last 6 months Mike Bohn has pulled off 3 of… Read more »

Chris
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Chris
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July 1, 2022 8:05 am

My predictions for PAC12 Is that they merge with Big 12. I think Oregon and Washington will be in Big10 by next week. WSU and OSU have zero leverage and will go with whatever the group decides.

Jamaica
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July 1, 2022 7:42 am

This had to happen. Waiting around for the PAC-12 conference to compete on the big scale was no longer making sense. Now the LA schools no longer have a conference on their back to secure “leftover TV money”. Oregon wasn’t big enough to handle that responsibility nor Washington. The big question now is what will Notre Dame do? They could find themselves beholding to super conference power-base decisions not putting them as an equal partner. I imagine the domer alumni is screaming “do something”
Right now?

rleeholder1
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July 1, 2022 5:33 am

I have mixed feelings regarding this move. While it makes sense financially to move to the Big 10, the traditions of the PCC (Pacific Coast Conference which included Idaho and Montana) and the PAC will become ancient history. Unless there is a non-conference game against Cal or Stanford, the fun weekenders in San Fran will be no more. I’m not about to attend one in Lincoln, Nebraska or Columbus, Ohio. It will be interesting to see the schedule and where USC will play away games in late October-November.

TrojanRJJ
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July 1, 2022 2:55 am

My guess is this is the longest post ever for the Board. I am in Stravanger, Norway. I get free data so I can post. One of my son’s texted me and I had to post. Best news in a decade. When the Pac failed to protect SC and cheered the outrageous sanctions and then kept the incompetent Larry Scott as Commissioner for the better part of a decade, I was hopeful SC would leave for the Big 10. The Pac is now dead as a football conference and as a Power 5 conference. The rest of the Conference finally… Read more »

RialtoTrojan
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June 30, 2022 11:38 pm

A random thought occurred to me (besides what a weird day) Does anyone think this move is the stumbling block towards hiring a baseball coach? The last I heard was the team had lost several players to the portal. With USC being able to ditch the the PAC 12 channel, NIL money cannot be far behind for the new super conference. And the PAC 12 channel will soon only be available on UHF channels. They still aren’t carried by some the largest providers. True story; I did a park and ride trip to the Hollywood Bowl today and was seated… Read more »

HOF19
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HOF19
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June 30, 2022 8:31 pm

LOL ……..Saw this on twitter (A fan responding to an article about this) …… LOL ……. >>>>> Ron V.
2 hours ago
So Hockey will be coming to USC soon right?

Steveg
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Steveg
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June 30, 2022 8:15 pm

I am amazed at the difference of opinion people have right now about this. Give it time.
I recommend that if the Pac totally folds, USC offer Kliavkoff a position on staff at USC. He could be the replacement for Sosna.

HOF19
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June 30, 2022 7:31 pm

Saw a replay of a interview with Ryan Abraham of USCFootball.com (The interview was few hours ago) who said he had a poll running asking USC Fans how they felt about this news and he said only about 55% of the fans responding approved of this move …… which kinda surprised him (and me for that matter ) . I think that (thru time) will not be a concern . Why ? …Because this is not happening tomorrow. SC fans will have a couple of years to let this idea grow on them ……..Fight On !!!!!

HOF19
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June 30, 2022 7:49 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

This is just me ……But I am almost not surprised we bolted first ……Why ? ….. Because I am starting to get the opinion that a certain person name Mike Bohn actually DOES have a talent for being pretty good at say “Reading the Writing on the Wall ” and acting on it ……Fight On !

Steveg
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June 30, 2022 6:50 pm

What I see as best thing is for Cal, Stanford, Washington, Oregon, Utah and Colorado try to merge with Big12 for a conference that would cover a lot of territory. OR St, WSU, and the AZ schools can either try for the Big12 or a revised Mountain West conference. I don’t think there would be any interest in the pac without the So Cal schools.
It is obvious that a lot is going to happen, and happen soon.