Pac-12 power ratings: The Big Four, the potential for a tie, and how to make the championship game matchup

Oregon, UCLA, USC, and Utah have separated themselves from the pack

Jon Wilner (Bay Area News Group)  —  Eight weeks down, four teams have the inside track for the two berths in the Pac-12 championship game.

Oregon, USC, UCLA and Utah are the cream of the conference. They are 14-3 in league play, with the losses coming only to each other.

Against everyone else, they are 11-0.

Two games loom large, both on Nov. 19: Utah at Oregon and USC at UCLA

It’s easy to see some combination of the quartet tying for the regular-season title or second place, with a berth in the championship game at stake.

For that reason — and because we have received numerous inquiries from readers — the Hotline concluded the time is right for a brief overview of the tie-breaking procedure.

Here we go …

*** Two-team ties

This is easy, unless it’s not.

A two-team tie is broken by the head-to-head result. But if the teams did not play (for example: USC and Oregon), then the second tiebreaker is each team’s winning percentage against the next-highest-placed common opponent in the standings (and proceeding through the standings).

And if that doesn’t work, the third step is winning percentage against all common conference opponents.

*** Multi-team ties

With ties involving more than two teams, the goal is to unlock the tie as soon as possible via the procedures. Per conference policy:

“After one team has an advantage and is seeded, all remaining teams in the multiple-team tie-breaker will repeat the multiple-team tie-breaking procedure. If at any point the multiple-team tie is reduced to two teams, the two-team tie-breaking procedure will be applied.”

1. Head-to-head results, unless not all of the tied teams have played each other. (In that case, head-to-head is ignored.)

2. Winning percentage against common conference opponents

3. Record against the next-highest-placed common opponent in the standings

Note: If there is a group of tied teams, then “use each team’s win percentage against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure) rather than the performance against individual tied teams.”

4. Combined winning percentage in conference games of conference opponents (essentially: strength-of-schedule)

5. Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics

Beyond that, it’s a coin toss. But we’re quite confident a three-team tie won’t get past the third step.

If there’s a need to revisit the tiebreaker in the final weeks of the season and explain all possible scenarios, we’ll do it.

To this week’s power ratings …

1. Oregon (6-1/4-0)

Last week: 1

Result: beat UCLA 45-30

Next up: at Cal (12:30 p.m. PT on FS1)

Comment: Following his stellar performance against UCLA, quarterback Bo Nix is now 35-to-1 to win the Heisman Trophy. Those seem like long odds, but there are only two players under 10-to-1: Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud and Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker.

2. UCLA (6-1/3-1)

Last week: 2

Result: lost at Oregon 45-30

Next up: vs. Stanford (7:30 p.m. on ESPN)

Comment: The defense is beginning to resemble last year’s version — not because of the coaching, which is better, but the personnel, which is worse. When the starting free safety (Mo Osling III) has more than twice as many tackles as anyone else (17), your front seven has been overwhelmed.

3. USC (6-1/ 4-1)

Last week: 3

Result: DNP

Next up: at Arizona (4 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks)

Comment: We have revised upward our outlook for the UCLA game. First team to 60 wins.

4. Utah (5-2/3-1)

Last week: 4

Result: DNP

Next up: at Washington State (Thursday, 7 p.m. on FS1)

Comment: If the Utes play every remaining half the way they played the second half against USC, they could be playing two halves in Las Vegas on Dec. 2.

ocregister.com

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