Why Lincoln Riley sensed a change in Trojans at halftime against Iowa …
Ryan Kartje (LA Times) — The Trojans are now just two wins away from a trip to the College Football Playoff. But the bigger statement Saturday, while rallying in the rain to beat a team like Iowa, wasn’t so much about this season, but rather the program’s trajectory after next week’s marquee matchup at No. 8 Oregon.
Riley said later that he sensed this shift at halftime, just as the team’s Playoff hopes were hanging by a thread. His Trojans were trailing Iowa, 21-10, once again having succumbed to the same slow start that plagued them the last two games. They’d been outplayed, outworked, outsmarted. The run defense was awful. The offense was stuck in the mud.
Still, as Riley looked out over the locker room, he saw something he hadn’t last season or the season before that.
“You could tell from the look in their eye,” Riley said. “I felt very strongly we were going to come back out and make a run.”
We saw it for ourselves in the second half. USC’s defense shut out Iowa from that point on. It was the third game in a row in which the Trojans allowed three points or fewer after half. The offense came roaring back, scoring 16 unanswered points. The comeback felt almost run-of-the-mill in the moment. As if falling behind was just a part of the plan all along.
That it came in the pouring rain, against a team whose style is so quintessentially Big Ten, made it particularly meaningful.
“If there ever was one, that was a culture win,” Riley said. “Our team’s resilience, their response at halftime … we just keep coming, we have all year.”
Think of how different that feels from this time last season, when it was a foregone conclusion that USC would fold in the fourth quarter. Now, instead, there’s a sense of swagger and confidence that hasn’t been there since before Caleb Williams hurt his hamstring in the 2022 Pac-12 championship game.
Even that 2022 season, as magical as it may have been, was propped up by a Heisman winner at quarterback, one capable of willing his team to wins unlike anyone before him at USC. Riley has said on several occasions that that team, coming off a 4-8 campaign, overachieved relative to where the program actually stood.
Two frustrating seasons followed. There were times, during that stretch, where it seemed USC found something. But nothing felt quite as earned as Saturday’s breakthrough in the second half.
Eric Gentry was there for that first season under Riley. The senior linebacker has been an emotional leader ever since and a good barometer of where things stand in the locker room.
“It’s win or go home right now, and there’s no go home,” Gentry said after the game. “We’ve got to win. I think the whole team is understanding of what the culture is. Just fight to the last second, not feel like something bad is going to happen.
“Coach [Riley] said: ‘Don’t hope for [anything]. Make it happen.’”
Hope won’t be enough to win at Oregon, where it hasn’t won in 14 years. It will have to iron out its issues against the run to have any shot against the Ducks, who boast the best rushing attack in the Big Ten. It will need to start faster on both sides of the ball. And it will have to play up to its potential on the road against a very good team, which it hasn’t done … umm … ever during Riley’s tenure.
That’s not to say this can’t happen. (Which I may have suggested in this space three months ago.) If not for a game-winning field goal in the rain, Oregon would have lost to Iowa last week. But very few people will give USC a shot at Autzen, for reasons that are totally rational and understandable.
College football, though, is rarely ever rational or understandable. If USC is somehow able to upend Oregon, on the road, it would be the biggest win at the school not just since Riley started as coach, but well before that.
No matter what happens, we’ve seen enough this season to say that the team and the program are in a better place than they were a year ago. The question now is whether they’re ready to take that final step.
Extra points
—Waymond Jordan was listed as “questionable” against Iowa. Could that hint at a return vs. Oregon? When Jordan underwent surgery last month, the hope was that his injury would only keep him out for four to six weeks. We’re basically at five-week mark right now, and by next weekend, will be near the end of that original timeline. Getting Jordan back was for this game was always a priority, and while King Miller has done great in his stead, Jordan was one of the best backs in America when he went down. His potential return would be huge news for USC’s offense. Some of this disparity is a factor of playing better defenses, but since Jordan departed after the win over Michigan, USC’s offense has averaged just over six yards per play in its last four games, down from 8.3 yards in the previous six games with him.
Makai Lemon (Eric Thayer/LAT)
—Give Makai Lemon the Biletnikoff already. How much more does anyone need to see to be convinced that Lemon is the best receiver in college football? Saturday was the third time in six weeks that Lemon has had 10 or more catches. And the afternoon started with Iowa double-teaming him. His leaping grab over the middle, as an Iowa defender knocked his legs out from under him, was truly something to behold. “He’s a fearless player,” Riley said. “Always has been.” But his game has gone to another level as a junior. I expect he’ll be a primary focus of Oregon’s secondary next week, which should open up opportunities for the rest of USC’s receiving corps.
—The USC women need time. Their schedule doesn’t exactly allow for it. Without JuJu Watkins, the Trojans are still trying to figure out their identity. They had no shot keeping up with No. 2 South Carolina on Saturday shooting 7% from deep. Jazzy Davidson is still getting the hang of things, just three games into her true freshman season, while USC’s frontcourt was pretty much non-existent against the Gamecocks. I agree with Lindsay Gottlieb that tests like this one, even when failed, help a team get better. But three of the Trojans’ next eight games come against top-25 teams, including a matchup with No. 1 Connecticut.
—AD Jen Cohen laid out her perspective on non-conference scheduling in her State of Troy address. She never said the words “Notre Dame,” but the message might as well have been addressed to Irish athletic director Pete Bevacqua. Cohen wants to play the game in the first month of the season, as we’ve reported in this newsletter. In her letter to fans, she pointed out that no other Big Ten teams in the last two years have played a non-conference road game after Week 4. “Intentionally making our road to the CFP significantly more difficult than our Big Ten peers does not align with our goal to win championships,” Cohen wrote. That might make some fans bristle, but it’s the same sentiment that Riley has expressed for the last two years.
—Here’s what Cohen said on the Big Ten’s proposed private equity plans. In the same address, Cohen gave her first public comments on the private equity plan that USC and Michigan currently remain against. She didn’t reject the idea of a private equity deal outright, but noted that the school, in any deal, would need to consider USC’s “long-term value and flexibility” versus the benefit of a short-term payout. But the payout itself is part of the problem: USC is slated to get less than not just Michigan and Ohio State, but also Penn State. I still don’t see USC budging on its issue with that disparity, which could amount to something like a $10 million difference, per On3’s reporting. That’s led to some alarm bells about USC going independent. But there’s no reason to think we’re anywhere close to that. Let’s pump the brakes.
—You may have noticed that the Sams made another number change. Punter Sam Johnson and third-string quarterback Sam Huard were both listed as No. 0 this week, after both deceptively wore No. 80 a week ago. Watching USC line up for a punt this week, it dawned on me another brilliant layer to USC’s controversial fake punt ploy. From now on, every team the Trojans play will have to think to themselves, “Is that actually the punter?” Whether you thought USC’s ploy was bush league or not, Riley has only reaped benefits since. Though, maybe it’s no coincidence that Johnson’s first punt this week was a 24-yard shank. Karma? Perhaps.
latimes.com
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We all know, every one of us just as the USC coaches know the only chance the Trojans win Saturday is if they play hard aggressive from the start, the very start or the ducks will pull away scoring 28/35 points by the half. We must stay with Oregon score for score and not give up any cheap TDs. If Whatever hangup our defensive players have habitually gotten into lollygaging around in the 1st half continues in this game, it will be over by the half. The pressure here will be on the Trojan coaching staff to get the team… Read more »
Colin Cowherd — “I don’t know if USC can block Oregon, with those two first round defensive linemen up front. I think Oregon’s gonna win by 10 -13 points.” Joel Klatt — “I think it’s a bad matchup for USC. USC showed me a lot against Iowa, in those conditions, winning the way they did. In particular their defense, holding Iowa to really nothing in the second half, a hundred yards and no points. That was huge. “But Oregon’s a different animal. And that location is a different animal. Oregon is the second best rushing team in the country. They’re… Read more »
That’s CC challenging our guys ! He knows they listen
Hot coaching commodity Lane Kiffin has a tough decision 12 years after USC fired him Steve Henson (LA Times) — Twelve years ago, coach Lane Kiffin was humiliated, fired by USC athletic director Pat Haden on an airport tarmac at 3 a.m. moments after the Trojans had flown in from Phoenix after getting crushed by Arizona State, 62-41. OK, so maybe it wasn’t the tarmac, maybe that’s just Trojan lore, maybe the abrupt firing took place in a small room next to the runway. Either way, the memory has been burned in Kiffin’s heart and mind, helping motivate him to increased success on the… Read more »
College football Week 13 streaming guide: Playoff stakes for USC-Oregon, Oklahoma, ACC teams Saturday, afternoon window Best on paper: No. 15 USC (+9.5) at No. 7 Oregon (CBS) Steven Louis Goldstein (The Athletic) — Here’s our headliner, 8-2 USC and 9-1 Oregon. Trojans WR1 Makai Lemon is third in FBS in total receiving yards, with 1,090 yards in just 10 games. His last two lines are ridiculous: 11 catches for 161 yards versus Northwestern, 10 for 153 versus Iowa, both capped with a touchdown. The Athletic draft sage Dane Brugler has six different Ducks in his latest NFL Draft top 50.… Read more »
College Football Playoff Rankings (Nov 18)
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Could USC beat any of the 10-14, and those below? I think so. Given a 2nd chance at Illinois it wouldn’t be close. The conference championship games will be fun and decide a lot of the final rankings. Other than Missouri-Oklahoma and USC-Oregon not much else will be decided this weekend.
The more relevant question is how many of the teams ranked 10-14 SC passes with a win over Oregon, assuming they all win, too.
I think the chances are no better than 50-50 that SC gets to #10 (that is, SC passes 11-14 plus Oregon) and very long odds to get any higher than 10. The way things stand now, the difference between SC’s being #10 and #11 in the final ranking is the difference between being in the Playoff and being out.
If we beat Oregon, we still have a chance to rise further by pummeling UCLA, if we can. We won’t get much out of beating UCLA, but assuming we look good doing it, we’ll get something.
Something, yes. But assuming SC enters the UCLA game at #11, enough to leapfrog Alabama, Notre Dame, or Oklahoma if they all take care of business? I don’t think so. Barring an unexpected loss by someone now ranked between 6 and 10, I think SC’s ceiling is #10. Good enough, but no margin for error.
Inside College Football (CBS Sports Network) — my fave CFB show during the week
NFL Panic Meter: The Raiders need (another) reset, and that might include Pete Carroll Frank Schwab (Yahoo Sports) — Pete Carroll was hired by the Las Vegas Raiders this past offseason to raise the competitive level of the franchise and do it right away. A rebuilding team doesn’t hire a 74-year-old head coach thinking about a long-term plan. The Raiders are not more competitive with Carroll. They’re somehow worse. The Raiders’ problems were on display for a Monday night audience. They were absolutely blown out at home by a Dallas Cowboys team that isn’t great. Since an inexplicable Week 1 win… Read more »
We avoid #1 and #2, but got 3, 5, 6, 7 & 8. Very challenging schedule. What I find odd, if SC beats OR, the B1G gets 4 teams in the CFP; if not, then only 3. SC is, IMO, clearly the 4th best team in the B1G. I think MI and Iowa are very close for #5. Did not see that coming this year in August.
It’s going to be tough to stop that running game of Oregon. They ran for 261 yards against Iowa……about 7 yards a carry. We ran for 106….just over 3 yards a carry. It would have been nice if we had gone after David Bailey when he left Stanford. He’s leading the nation in sacks. It would also have been nice if we had dished out the money to keep Pregnon. We’d have the best O-Line in the country.
Oregon has won 7 of the last 10 meetings…have solace; at this rate the Ducks will tie USC for wins in ~2060. UO averages 17 point win margins over the Trojans; USC averages about the same over lame Ducks. Las Vegas oddsmakers say O will win by 10 in Saturdays matchup.
Not a good match up for SC. The OR strength on O is our weakness on D. Oregon also has very good D and has better overall talent than SC. I think SC catches the Ducks in talent next year and will be able to play truly toe to toe when that talent matures. I doubt we win this one.
USC on GameDay!
ESPN’s GameDay pregame show (6 am PT) will be in Eugene for the USC at ORE game on Saturday (12:30 PT). This is the second time this season GameDay will be broadcast from Eugene and the third time it will feature an ORE game.
It’s been a long time for the Trojans.
USC last appeared on “College GameDay” in 2016 for the Rose Bowl. ORE last appeared on CGD in Oct, losing to #2 IU 30-20.
We’re back relevant again. Hope we stay there. Too bad Corso retired. He was perfect on USC head gear picks!
Bloody lip and all!
I think there is a general hope lurking in the hearts of SC Nation that we have a chance to win this weekend IF the Ducks have a bad game. I hope the players aren’t feeling that way, even subconsciously. Because the Ducks will NOT have a bad game. They get up for playing USC every time. Nothing gets them up more. They’ve had this Saturday circled on their calendars, they’re at home, the crowd will be jacked and loud no matter the weather, and they are coming to play. If we think a win depends on them having an… Read more »
Rock, If SC plays its A game and Oregon plays its A game, SC loses. If SC plays like it did in the first half against Iowa, SC loses. If SC plays did it did against ND, SC loses. Odd things happen in football, and I hope SC can play them tough – but we go in as a huge underdog. IMO, we have not yet put together a top 10 team. We are close, but we are not there yet. Hope I am wrong. I do think that SC has finally matched OR in management skill, funding, and staff.… Read more »
UC Investments puts $2.4 billion Big Ten deal on hold amid pushback from MICH and USC Ralph Russo & Stewart Mandel (The Athletic) — An investment group that was prepared to pay the Big Ten $2.4 billion for a 10 percent share of the conference’s media and sponsorship rights has put the deal on hold due to the continued public opposition from two schools, Michigan and USC. UC Investments, which manages more than $200 billion in assets held by the California universities’ endowment and pension funds, issued a statement Monday saying it “requires some additional time to complete our… Read more »
The B!G wanted the LA market for CFB–big money for the conference there. And that money comes via the SC brand (everyone knows that ucla was a low value throw-in). I am glad that Cohen and the powers that be at the university are hanging tough in not going along with this UC investments deal. We shouldn’t take less than Tosu and MICH.
I wonder why MICH is holding out? Do they want more $$$ than Tosu?
I’m thinking with the length of this deal of 20 years, some have figured out it isn’t even a fair deal with what the UC program would take in?
For what I have read, Michigan is concerned about the long effects this 20 year program would maintain with its 10% return and, not knowing what the future will be in CFB with all the changes taking place. They are concerned of being leveraged on.
because it’s impossible to judge the value of media and sponsorship rights in the ever-changing College game 2 years from now…never mind that the deal would extend to 2046.
Other than the one time cash what else was the CA Public Employee Pension Fund bringing to the table? Why sell off 10% of your future cash cow, media/sponsorship revenue? The schools that needed the cash the most were getting less anyway. Don’t get why the rest of the BIG, other than USC and Michigan, would let OSU, Michigan and Penn St take the biggest chunk.
I think it’s imperative USC has nothing to do with this investment program until it is put on the tier 1 group, otherwise shove it. With the exception Michigan has more wins than USC, there is nothing else any big ten team has an advantage over.
No way USC should get anything but top money. They are the anchor for media in the 1st or 2nd largest media market.