Lincoln Riley Says “Good” USC Can Beat Anybody

Lincoln Riley still believes USC can win a Pac-12 football title. How do the Trojans get there?

Examining the teams left on the Trojans’ conference schedule and their potential path to Vegas

Jaylin Smith (19) celebrates with S Bryson Shaw (27) after breaking up late two-point conversion against CAL, preserving USC’s 50-49 comeback victory in Berkeley, Calif., Sat, Oct. 28, 2023. (AP/Jed Jacobsohn)

Luca Evans (OC Register)  —  For the fine line that USC football coach Lincoln Riley has preached over the last couple of weeks after losses – if Eric Gentry’s finger goes up another quarter of an inch to block a late Utah kick, if one or two third-quarter plays go the Trojans’ way against Notre Dame – the flip side is true in a stretch of confounding, pulling-hair-out wins that have hardly felt like victories.

“I think we let some of the appreciation and fun out of winning get away there in the middle,” Riley said on Thursday.

If Colorado hadn’t operated with such poor clock management in a late-September comeback against USC, perhaps the Trojans would be 6-3.

If Arizona had converted a two-point try in their back-and-forth overtime battle with USC, perhaps the Trojans would be 5-4.

If California, most recently, had simply opted to kick an extra point with clock running low and head to overtime on Saturday afternoon, perhaps the Trojans would be 4-5.

But for all the glaring defensive errors that have resulted in back-and-forth shootouts, the pressure too often on Caleb Williams having to reach for his holster and hit his mark, this USC team is nothing if not resilient. Battle-tested. They’ve put themselves in unenviable positions – down 17-0 to Arizona, down 28-17 at half to California – to teams on paper less talented, but have found a couple heroes and enough big plays to finish games.

Thus, they find themselves at 7-2, a record that tells laughably little of the story of this season and yet doesn’t lie. Second, firmly, in the Pac-12, with a key game against Washington coming up next. And with no hopes of a national title, no hopes of a College Football Playoff, a conference championship for the first time since 2017 is a decent enough morsel left on the plate.

“I believe this team can win this league,” Riley said postgame Saturday. “Hell yeah, I do. Hell yeah, I do. I know we can.”

Odds seem long, however, with the final teams on USC’s schedule being tough Pac-12 teams: Washington (home), Oregon (away) and UCLA (home). Let’s break down the teams left vying for a trip to Vegas and the Trojans’ potential path.

Washington (8-0, 5-0 in Pac-12)

Opponents remaining: USC, Utah, Oregon State, Washington State

Washington has the benefit of a major win over Oregon on its schedule, but hasn’t exactly inspired in scuffling against their last two Pac-12 opponents: their vaunted offense sputtered against Arizona State in a 15-7 win (USC beat the Sun Devils 42-28), and the Huskies were tested Saturday by a rapidly-improving Stanford team in a 42-33 win (USC beat the Cardinals 56-10).

What would help USC’s oddsThey’d need to first outgun Washington on Nov. 4 in a game at USC that may total approximately 2,546 points, and hope Utah’s defense could stifle Washington the following week to give the Huskies two conference losses. Washington will be favored to beat Oregon State and Washington State to close out the year, but neither game is automatic.

Oregon (7-1, 4-1 in Pac-12)

Opponents remaining: Cal, USC, Arizona State, Oregon State

The Ducks lost 36-33 to Washington in a game Dan Lanning almost certainly wants back, but Oregon has a clearer shot to Vegas than any team in the Pac-12. They’ll be the toughest team remaining for USC, just drubbing Utah 35-6 the week after the Trojans fell, and have a relatively easy path remaining with Cal, Arizona State and Oregon State.

What would help USC’s oddsPrayer that they, or someone, could knock off Oregon and give the Ducks two conference losses.

UCLA (6-2, 3-2 in Pac-12)

Opponents remaining: Arizona, Arizona State, USC, Cal

An elite defensive unit will keep the Bruins in the game against most anyone, but UCLA already has two conference losses — Utah and Oregon State — before taking on a pesky Arizona team that nearly knocked off USC and is coming off back-to-back wins over Washington State and Oregon State. Possible, but unlikely, that UCLA could beat both Arizona and USC to preserve their Pac-12 record.

What would help USC’s oddsIf the Wildcats’ Noah Fifita goes nuclear next Saturday.

Oregon State, Utah and Arizona are also all 3-2 in the Pac-12, but it’s difficult to see any running the table from here. Oregon State faces both Washington and Oregon, and Utah is officially down Cam Rising for the year; Arizona has a favorable schedule, but will be relying on a freshman quarterback in Fifita.

It’s not impossible to see USC taking two of its next three games and still making the championship game, or getting in by winning all three if Caleb Williams goes god mode.

“This team’s good,” Riley said Saturday, “is definitely good enough to beat anybody.”

ocregister.com

_______

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USC1988
Noble Genius
USC1988
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October 31, 2023 1:03 am

You never know but …. but this athletic Brown kid at Kansa may be our qb n txt year

UtahTrojan
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UtahTrojan
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October 30, 2023 7:46 pm

At what point has USC put together a complete game for 4 quarters this year or last. LR needs to exit fantasy land.

USCrosegreen
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USCrosegreen
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October 30, 2023 7:21 pm

The new UCLA defensive coach, D’Anton Lynn has improved their D greatly. D’Anton will be earning >$1 million/year. Plus they have Ken Norton jr coaching their inside linebackers with an entirely new D coaching staff.

PN4SC
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PN4SC
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October 30, 2023 6:19 pm

Hate to say it, but I think Golden Trojan is right. I don’t see us winning another regular season game. The teams ahead are all playing better than us, and after 9 games, I don’t expect a light bulb to switch on, and all of a sudden, we are playing to our potential. Right now, this team is very average. Sad to say, considering the talent level.
Riley will have to do some souls searching this off season. And the problems are not just on the defensive side. His offense is extremely inconsistent, with long scoring droughts.

Golden Trojan
Major Genius
October 30, 2023 6:14 pm

I just watched LR’s post game interview. I came away much less critical than most here. He was saying the right things, measured, not willing to throw anyone under the bus. That’s a good guy to work/play for. My take away from him is his team is inconsistent on all 3 phases of the game but keeps fighting to win. When that happens one phase needs to pick up the others and squeak out a win, 3 out of 4 games. When all are bad at the same time you get blown out, in South Bend. I am expecting 3… Read more »

Golden Trojan
Major Genius
October 30, 2023 6:18 pm
Reply to  Golden Trojan

Oh, and if all 3 phases can play well on the same game they will be lights out. Hope to see it at least once in the next 3 weeks.

USCrosegreen
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USCrosegreen
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October 30, 2023 4:19 pm

The Washington Huskies Defense is terrible at tackling…just a glimmer of hope.

Steveg
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Steveg
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October 30, 2023 4:27 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

Not sure if it is true but rumor is they have been hit by the flu. But overall what I have seen a defensive fan will not enjoy the USC/WA game. I am surprised the overs are not at 100.

USC1988
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USC1988
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October 30, 2023 8:35 pm
Reply to  Steveg

Grinch will get them out of their slump … CW is going to have to have a career game for us to pull the upset

TrojanMPA90
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October 30, 2023 3:48 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

It certainly wasn’t a pretty win by any stretch of the imagination but it was a win.

Yes AG has to go and I’m starting to think Jen Cohen may do what the Iowa AD did and step in and do something after the season is over or maybe sooner.

We could get a good DC such as Jim Leonhard or maybe Dave Arranda if Baylor cans him.

TrojanMPA90
Noble Genius
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October 30, 2023 4:14 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

We had no chance against Oregon in 2011 and went up there and beat them so anything is possible. Oregon is beatable as they proved when they barely beat Texas Tech and lost to Washington.

Expect a shootout in that game with the last team scoring winning.

PN4SC
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October 30, 2023 6:23 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

I hope good DC’s don’t shy away( no way Leonard is coming). It’s too bad, because with Lincoln being an offensive guy, I have to believe he would leave his DC alone, and not meddle in what defensive strategies he employs.. Riley really needs to grow up, and realize he can’t win just by out scoring people.
And to honest, our offense isn’t playing all that great. The point totals are somewhat deceiving.

TrojanRJJ
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October 30, 2023 1:34 pm

Back from a two week trip to the Caribbean, I got home late on Saturday, but got to watch the game via the internet. I did not watch the Utah game, but followed it via ESPN “Game Cast”. My take. LR sounds like a laid back Kenny Dillingham just before the SC game. He was passionate that you come into every game thinking you can win it. He said that even though his team had failed to score for six straight quarters, had just been embarrassed by Fresno State the week before (29-0), and he was playing his third string… Read more »

illinoisusc
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illinoisusc
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October 30, 2023 1:05 pm

CPC never forgets…..Seahawks just stole Leonard Williams from the Giants for a 2nd round and 5th rounder.

Rock2112
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October 30, 2023 11:41 am

Was anybody else here completely put off by LR’s body language in the post-game presser at Cal? He’s kicking back like a guy who’s waiting to go in and collect his last paycheck from human resources. Or like a guy who just signed a 30-year deal with a monster buyout clause. It screamed “lack of intensity.” It screamed “we’ll be fine, or whatever.” How about sitting up straight, cutting it with the smiles, and looking like a guy who just received another alarm in his ear that he is going to get HAMMERED by Oregon if that doesn’t happen against… Read more »

TrojanRJJ
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October 30, 2023 1:47 pm
Reply to  Rock2112

Rock. I do not see it the same way. LR made a colossal mistake in returning Grinch, but he cannot remove him now. Just not feasible. And, the D did win that game in Berkeley by forcing four turnover and providing three fourth down stops. But that same D gave up 49 points to a mediocre O led by the 2nd string QB, while forcing 4 turnovers (which is just stinky smelly D – absent the turnovers, Cal would probably have scored another 14 points or so). At the same time, for some reason, the O is struggling (without the… Read more »

Rock2112
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October 30, 2023 3:14 pm
Reply to  TrojanRJJ

I am not sure what you are disagreeing with, RJJ — you are ok with “Laid-Back Lincoln” as a demeanor while the program slides into a cottony soft and slop-filled abyss? Despite the fact that our defense does a good thing once in a while, in NO WAY was Saturday a good defensive performance. Again we allowed a team to collect yards well above their season average with their backup players. At least we agree that we were lucky that Cal got sloppy with the ball late, or the result on Sat. certainly would have been different. Yeah, Lincoln has… Read more »

USC1988
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October 31, 2023 1:00 am
Reply to  TrojanRJJ

Can we just win one lol … let the players celebrate with a big upset of unbeaten Washington, they deserve it I’m getting crazy here but would love CW to win his last game vs the gutties too

volunteerTrojan
Major Genius
October 30, 2023 4:06 pm
Reply to  Rock2112

Actually, his response would start with, “It may look like that to the untrained eye…”

Rock2112
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October 30, 2023 5:10 pm

I think his job at $10 million a year is to do whatever it takes to make today look like the Carroll and McKay eras — to our untrained eyes!

volunteerTrojan
Major Genius
October 30, 2023 9:00 pm
Reply to  Rock2112

That it is indeed!

USC1988
Noble Genius
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October 30, 2023 8:38 pm
Reply to  Rock2112

Dude has been sick, he needed to be off his feet. It’s a new era of coaches, the young hip guys are in. The classic meat heads blowhards like Parcels are out.

illinoisusc
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illinoisusc
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October 30, 2023 11:02 am

Between Breland and Rushing on top of Ulagalelei…..I’am wondering what the recruiters at USC do for a living. That Eugene defensive line is going to be impossible to beat.

USC1988
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USC1988
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October 30, 2023 8:39 pm
Reply to  illinoisusc

Whatever they are paying … we better double

volunteerTrojan
Major Genius
October 30, 2023 10:48 am

Interesting list. I always enjoy them. Surprisingly, I had not heard of #10, but the author makes a good case. List is heavy on offense. I’d like to see a defense list.

Top 10 Trojans of all time.

volunteerTrojan
Major Genius
October 30, 2023 4:13 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

Very cool, thanks Allen! I now have a new Trojan to admire.

volunteerTrojan
Major Genius
October 30, 2023 8:59 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

Of that amazing pipeline I am very aware!

Chris
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Chris
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October 30, 2023 10:35 am

i think we can go 2-1 in the next three games, but will most likely go 1-2. I think Oregon may give us the worst loss we can remember. Lanning will not stop scoring. If he can hang 70, he will. I hope I am wrong about that game, but it my mind and heart I just see a freight train headed our way.

Golden Trojan
Major Genius
October 30, 2023 9:49 am

LR is not going to call out Grinch in public, end of story. Everybody else outside of the USC program can and has, and I mean EVERYBODY else has. Right now they are trying their best to win these next 3 games. Depending on how those games go, the soonest we will hear from LR regarding his staff will be in about 3 weeks. If SC some how plays on Dec 1, Grinch may actually keep his job. If the next 3 games go as expected Grinch better be gone or pitch forks and torches will be surrounding McKay Center.… Read more »

Trojanfanatic
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October 30, 2023 8:39 am

The way LR has been talking so passively about the defense, performance of his coaches and the direction of the program, I’m starting to come around to the belief nothing will be changed, at least until possibly 2025. Grinch will stay. My guess is LR will do a Kliff Kingsbury to the defensive side of the ball. Another Greg Brown type analyst, but one working directly with Grinch. LR will spin a tale of serious changes, and this analyst should do the trick. I think we all know Grinch is staying, even if the additional analyst theory is incorrect. 

USC1988
Noble Genius
USC1988
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October 30, 2023 8:28 pm
Reply to  Trojanfanatic

Grinch is gone .. and what the hell did Brown do

Trojanfanatic
Noble Genius
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October 31, 2023 8:35 am
Reply to  USC1988

By the look of secondary Brown hasn’t done much, but again analysts can’t work directly with the kids on the field. Grinch is gone? I’d be more than ecstatic if you were right. Being tolerant of giving up so many points per game, for so many years, with the same DC, has me skeptical.

TrojanRon
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TrojanRon
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October 30, 2023 5:27 am

Riley’s comments are hollow. To me, it’s just like hearing Helton say USC would play tougher and with more discipline….lol. Maybe I am too myopic or expect too much out of college kids, but USC has for years been one of the most undisciplined and mental mistake-prone programs in the Nation, year after year. Some people say that SC is the Oakland/LA/Las Vegas Raiders of college football. If stats were kept on mental mistakes and dumb penalties, I’m sure SC would be tops in the country. I can’t put my finger on what causes it. Maybe all the distractions of… Read more »

ATL D.D.S.
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ATL D.D.S.
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October 30, 2023 5:46 am
Reply to  TrojanRon

I suspect Jack Del Rio is too much of an alpha male for her tastes–she prefers beta male types, she being a little leftie Napoleon….

illinoisusc
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illinoisusc
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October 30, 2023 9:43 am
Reply to  ATL D.D.S.

I heard this story a long while back…..When Mike Ditka was brought in to run the Chicago Bears in the 80’s they were having penalty after penalty most at the wrong time.
There was a team meeting called by the captains, Ditka was invited.
Several players got up and apologized to Ditka for the penalties.
Ditka responded…..don’t apologize…..most of you will not be here next year….and they were not. .

Steveg
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Steveg
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October 29, 2023 8:01 pm

Riley will probably be head coach for as long as he wants to be. A mature HC will have to take a hard look and make some changes that will be uncomfortable to make. I hope he has or gains the maturity to do the right thing for the program he chose to lead. He took a 2021 team and put lipstick on it for 2022, but for 2023 the lipstick wore off and shows what the team really is. He has to talk positive, he is still working to recruit for the future.

Chris
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Chris
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October 29, 2023 6:57 pm

So many problems. the defense cannot be fixed this year. We all know grinch makes it worse.
I rewatched that train wreck and the shocker to me is Caleb. He refuses to throw to check downs. There are guys wide open all the time. But he doesn’t throw it. He hangs on to it waiting for big play and our horrible right side o line eventually gets beat and it all falls apart. Caleb is hurting us as often as he is helping us right now. Not saying play the other guys, but come on, don’t make it harder.

illinoisusc
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illinoisusc
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October 29, 2023 7:59 pm
Reply to  Chris

Chris…….its hard to say it…….but……..His decision making and sometimes inaccurate passes are starting to hurt his draft stock. Some of the receivers are open.
Some of this is the OL, you’re right, the right side is really bad, but when he is given plus 3 seconds it does not seem to help
Let’s hope that whatever is affecting him passes (no pun) next week in a battle between Penix and him.
Penix has had the flu the past few weeks so his performance the past few weeks is understandable. Could be the entire team is infected.

Golden Trojan
Major Genius
October 29, 2023 10:15 pm
Reply to  Chris

If LR and Kliff Kingsbury can’t fix him it’s on him and bench him till he gets with the program. We might be surprised how the whole team picks it up if CW is not in the game.
I watched some of the Oregon Utah game. Nix is making NFL decisions, short quick ones, medium, and long, which sets up the run game and it all clicks. Dancing around waiting for the big play isn’t working. CW gives the body language like the whole thing is a joke.

Golden Trojan
Major Genius
October 29, 2023 10:24 pm
Reply to  Golden Trojan

In other words, take what the defense gives you and let your skill guys make yardage after catch.

Tirebitter
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October 29, 2023 5:33 pm

Oh, my, listen to Riley. Well, he’s just trying get his team up for the remaining games so I guess these comments could be expected. Reality is that SC does not control their destiny, even if, cough, cough, they win out. Riley’s resent statements and his lack of any real action tells me he will never put together a program capable of winning a NC. And, of course, that is the, ahem, expectation at SC! The SC Admin has put the alumni through the Helton years, despite his his very obvious incompetence. Now we have LR, whose record here is… Read more »

RialtoTrojan
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October 29, 2023 5:06 pm

How much codeine is in his cough medicine? I am thinking Cal was a warning to watch out for Tulane in the nowhere bowl. I hope something changes and become a football team again, after the bye we haven’t seen a complete game since September.

USC1988
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USC1988
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October 29, 2023 4:55 pm

It all sounds good until Grinch starts calling his untouched TDs … Udub Chuck it up O will score at will vs Grinch’s shit D. Oregon can name the score by the 4th quarter. Outside chance of beating UCLA but that new qb will have a career day.

Golden Trojan
Major Genius
October 29, 2023 6:37 pm
Reply to  USC1988

Every QB USC plays this season has a career day. What do you think Penix and Nix will do let alone what Ethan Garbers will do?

USC1988
Noble Genius
USC1988
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October 29, 2023 7:50 pm
Reply to  Golden Trojan

It wI’ll get ugly

TrojanMPA90
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October 29, 2023 4:39 pm

I’m willing to give Lincoln Riley the benefit of the doubt and have him be the coach in 2024 with some staff changes to improve the defense. He’s young and still growing as a coach and is now having to do a full rebuild. Last year’s success blinded us from seeing how weak the roster is. You can only do so much through the transfer portal but that is a short term solution. The long-term success is built through adding quality recruits and depth on both the offensive and defensive lines. We don’t have that depth plus need more talent… Read more »

Trojanfanatic
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October 29, 2023 4:29 pm

Riley is losing the fan base and fast. Even the fanboys are turning. Riley is demonstrating zero sense of urgency or disgust with his coaches or overall program. It’s his bs pressers that got most shaking their heads. After Kiffin, Sark, Helton and now LR, I’m thinking the only way “this” program is going ever resurrect is a defensive minded coach with a Norm Chow type as OC. Kirby smart, Lanning, Saban, Pete Carrol, Venables, etc, are some examples. Sure there’s offensive minded guys who are up there, but notice they have top notch DCs because they understand the game… Read more »

volunteerTrojan
Major Genius
October 29, 2023 4:08 pm

This defense’s bad,” volunteerTrojan said Sunday, “is definitely bad enough to lose to anybody.”

illinoisusc
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illinoisusc
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October 29, 2023 4:01 pm

If he would only admit to the real situation most USC fans would probably cut him some slack…..by spinning these nonsense stories he is losing his base of support.

Tirebitter
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October 29, 2023 5:36 pm
Reply to  illinoisusc

All he has to say is that this year’s record doesn’t meet his standards and the entire program will be reviewed at the end of the season.

illinoisusc
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illinoisusc
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October 29, 2023 6:45 pm
Reply to  Tirebitter

Yep!

HOF19
Noble Genius
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October 29, 2023 3:21 pm

And it appears we are a home underdog this week .

HOF19
Noble Genius
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October 29, 2023 3:20 pm

Each week I seem to value what LR says less and less .