Conference realignment roundtable: Will the Pac-12 and Big 12 really merge?
J. Brady McCullough & Ryan Kartje (LA Times) — The Pac-12 and Big 12 commissioners have met to discuss future partnership opportunities. What does this mean exactly? Will we see a full-blown merger down the road? Will the two conferences potentially enter TV contract discussions as a group? Will any sort of alliance make the Pac-12 and Big 12 competitively stronger?
Times national college writer J. Brady McCollough and USC reporter Ryan Kartje share what their sources are saying Pac-12 fans can expect as conference realignment reshapes the college football landscape.
McCollough: The first thing we should do before going down the rabbit hole of analyzing what a Pac-12/Big 12 collaboration could look like is to understand where this news came from.
Max Olson, a national college football reporter with The Athletic, has his reporting roots in Big 12 country. When I saw his report, it made perfect sense that the leak revealing the meeting between Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby and Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff (above) was from the Big 12, which desperately needs to show the remaining eight schools that there could be some hope of salvaging the league.
My sources tell me they met for six hours, but from the Pac-12 end of things, I would not overreact. Kliavkoff is going to be taking lots of meetings in the coming weeks as the landscape shifts in the Texas-and-Oklahoma-to-SEC aftermath. The quote he tweeted later — “One of the most sincere forms of respect is actually listening to what another has to say” — appears pointed. He was there to listen.
The Big 12 would obviously jump at anything the Pac-12 is willing to entertain: a scheduling alliance setting up annual matchups in nonconference play or an actual merger. That all sounds dreamy to the Big 12, which is facing an existential threat. But for the Pac-12, my instinct is that a move like this with a league that’s on its deathbed would be a last resort after all other options to improve the league’s stature heading into 2024 media rights negotiations have been exhausted.
Also, if the Pac-12 has interest in the Big 12 for recruiting/time zone reasons, why wouldn’t it just poach a few of the schools?
Kartje: Let me first just acknowledge that I fully support our new commissioner’s cryptic sub-tweeting. Please, George, do continue throughout this conference realignment saga.
What he shouldn’t do is raid the Big 12 for a collection of schools that add nothing to the Pac-12 outside of a new time zone. Adding middling programs indiscriminately, without heavily scrutinizing the kind of revenue they bring, is exactly the type of panic move the Pac-12 should try to avoid.
Which of the eight left-behind Big 12 schools is even the most desirable for the Pac-12? Texas Tech? Oklahoma State? Neither of those programs would bring much new to the equation, and this conference desperately needs to find a way to close the revenue gap first. If that means adding schools that actually carry their weight in that regard, great. But I don’t see any options in the Big 12 footprint. It seems that most of the conference’s decision-makers understand that.
Now, are there other ways for the Pac-12 and Big 12 to work together? Sure. A scheduling partnership only helps both sides beef up their nonconference schedule and makes future media rights negotiations more attractive. But if you’re Kliavkoff, wouldn’t you rather strike that agreement with a more desirable conference that spreads across two time zones, sits on fertile recruiting ground and has a much better reputation for football?
Oh, hello, Big Ten.
McCollough:Ryan, prepare for your Inbox to fill with the same Oklahoma State fans who have been writing me the last few weeks after my initial column on this matter. Guns up, buddy. I will take up for the Big 12 a bit and counter that as far as fertile recruiting ground, Texas far trumps the schools in the Big Ten footprint.
You hit the nail on the head, though, about the Big Ten. Kliavkoff would have to engage Big Ten Commissioner Kevin Warren about a scheduling alliance that with USC, Oregon, Washington, Stanford, etc., matching up with Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, etc., would create a bidding frenzy from the TV networks and infuse each league with riches.
Of the non-SEC conferences, the Big Ten holds the cards and may feel it doesn’t need to hitch its wagon to the Pac-12 — similar to how the Pac-12 should feel about the Big 12. The only disaster scenario for the Pac-12 is that the Big Ten decides to pillage in response to the SEC, and the Pac-12 has the most attractive properties.
Ryan, you’re a Michigander. Do you see the Big Ten doing something like that? And, as our USC reporter, what do you think the Trojans would do if Warren dialed them up?
Kartje: If I’m the Big Ten, I absolutely explore the prospect of pillaging the Pac-12. Outside of the SEC, no other conference is in a more powerful position. Warren can calmly assess the wreckage and decide his next move, and the rest of the landscape will react accordingly. It’s all a game of chicken now, and the Pac-12 would be wise to make that contact soon; though, I’m sure they already have.
USC is the clear prize that the Big Ten would/should be after, which puts athletic director Mike Bohn in an interesting position of leverage. The Pac-12 desperately needs USC to stay put, and Kliavkoff knows that. It’s no coincidence that he toured USC first on his conference campus tour. Bohn is a smart guy, too. He knows he can use that leverage to play a major part in the upcoming realignment talks.
Since he was hired, Bohn has made clear that he wants USC to act like the conference’s flagship university. It’s in USC’s best interest then to establish that it could leave, if it wants. I don’t think we’ve reached that point yet. I think USC would prefer to stay in the Pac-12, if the Pac-12 evolves in the way it’s hoping. But as the pieces start to shift, Bohn would be wise to keep hisoptions open.
I think we can agree if USC flies the coop, the Pac-12 will be in a very bad spot.
McCollough: If USC leaves for the Big Ten, then it absolutely will be good that Bowlsby and Kliavkoff have had this initial discussion! At that point, a merger of the two leagues’ leftovers would make plenty of sense.
The Big Ten has been eerily quiet, although there is some buzz about Kansas. That would surprise me on its own, but the Jayhawks would make sense if the Big Ten is planning to push further west.
Deputy sports editor Iliana Limón Romero: So, Pac-12 fans should be excited about the future? And like feel good? This is a new feeling. Your answers suggest optimism in the Conference of Champions after years of being a punchline and getting left out of the playoff semifinal conversation. Is that a sentiment fans can trust?
Kartje: The Pac-12 has a long way to go before I would use the words “excited” or “optimistic,” but the early returns with Kliavkoff have been good. What happens next is of the utmost importance, and Kliavkoff should be taking every possible meeting with other commissioners, presidents, AD’s, etc., to gauge the landscape.
It’s a difficult balance to strike, biding time as the pieces shift, but also staying on top of everything to ensure you don’t get left behind. It’s quite a task for a new commissioner, but as Brady reported with his recent story on Kliavkoff, plenty of folks believe he’s up to the task.
McCollough:Ryan summed it up well. The Pac-12 has to strike the right balance between offense and defense. Kliavkoff gives the league reason for hope — imagine if Larry Scott was in charge during realignment given the erosion of trust that had occurred? But one comment he made in our interview — about wanting to be ethical, wanting people to know that when he said something they could trust him, and he would expect that favor to be returned — stuck with me. Because that is not at all the way the game is played right now in college athletics. He’d be right to maintain some healthy skepticism, and I’m sure he knows that.
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Watch the welcome OU and UT get when they are visitors for conference games this season. Along with all the boos and fan harassments, I wouldn’t doubt someone turns off the hot water for their showers after the game. Maybe the lights too. LOL
Who needs Bru McCoy? USC remains loaded with superior WRs, both ready to play and ready to develop with big credentials:
K.D. Nixon – RS SR Zach Wilson – RS JR Drake London – JR John Jackson III – JR Jake Smith – JR Chase Locke – RS Soph Kyle Ford – RS Soph Tahj Washington – RS Soph Gary Bryant Jr. – Soph Danny Ryan – RS Frosh Ty Shamblin – RS Frosh Josiah Zamora – Frosh Joseph Manjack IV – Frosh Michael Jackson III – Frosh Kyron Ware-Hudson – Frosh
I get your point, but do any of these have the ability to impact a game like BM did against ASU last year? Maybe Drake London, but that’s it. Very unfortunate for both this young man and USC.
None are as physical as anti, but there are quite a few that are as impactful. Kyle Ford and Gary Bryant are both equally or more explosive. Jake Smith is stud. There’s lots of guys who can step in and fill the gap.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, now with the Lions, miraculously tipped that TD toss right to Bru McCoy. St. Brown was the hero of that play. If we had lost Drake London, that would be cause for concern. Losing McCoy isn’t nearly that significant of a loss. Based on the list of WRs I reprinted above, as well as USC’s well-established rep for manufacturing WRs every year like they come off an assembly line, USC should have no problem. I don’t even think USC is gonna miss McCoy for a minute. I hope he somehow successfully straightens out his problems with his… Read more »
Matt Barkley, originally drafted in 2013 by Philadelphia, and having spent the last three years with Buffalo (nine overall in the NFL), has signed with the Tennessee Titans as a backup to Ryan Tannehill. Barkley has been with the Bills, Eagles, Cardinals, and Bears.
Agreed. QB is a different animal, especially NFL. There are lots of backups who are really stable guys. They are smart, high character, no issues. It’s almost better to roll the dice on a starter with a high ceiling who may not turn out than a backup.
Seems to me that everyone has an opinion and there are sure a lot of them flying around the internet. If we give it time it will all come to some sort of conclusion and I am sure someone will predict it right. I have enjoyed just sitting back and reading the experts predictions. My opinion was that they needed a new conference, but it would have included UT and OU which is now pretty much a done deal with the SEC. If college football is going the way of money first before all else I can see it being… Read more »
Bottom line are these. 1 Both B1G and PAC 12 Fox/ESPN media rights deals are up 2024. 2 Last year 14 B1G schools got $54M media per school; PAC 12’s 12 schools got $33M. That’s $21M less! 3 B1G is the richest Conf. 4 Add all the Big 12 schools, add BYU, add Boise St and none of those are bringing $21M more in media dollars to PAC 12 schools …… Because …… 5 UT and OU are leaving because their football games avg 3M-3.5M viewers/game; rest of Big 12 averages a paltry 800K views/game. IMO this all ends with… Read more »
I think it will just be one division with no conferences at all. 40-50 teams. It will be a football only conference. All of the other sports will stay with conference agitation or some sort of shakeup affiliation.
Just received the following email: Dear Trojan Family, I hope this note finds you and your loved ones safe and healthy. It’s been 621 days since the Trojan Family has been together in the Coliseum, and we are thrilled to welcome you back this season! Thank you for your support of our student-athletes and commitment to USC and our athletics program. More than ever, our historic stadium and passionate fans will provide an immense home field advantage to our team. Our players appreciate our fans and rely on you to create a daunting environment for our opponents, so let’s… Read more »
Per Buckeye Scoop Morning Scoop Wednesday podcast interview of an “insider” (who first broke Quinn Ewers reclassifying over a month ago and has been right (not always) other times): (1). Kansas to B1G has legs, (2) Big 12/PAC 12 is just a desperation move by Big 12, (3) “USC knows” it has to leave and has reached out to the B1G, (4) USC doesn’t want to “go alone.”
Just talking to a friend that works in the PAC 12 office that has no real say, lol, not all my idea, hear us out. Big 12, which has 10 teams, soon to have 8 is talking about merging with PAC 12. Hm. Kansas State and Iowa State are useless, tiny and shrinking markets, mediocre brands, and no chance for real national branding… West Virginia is also tiny market and too far. So we are down to 5 schools worth the PAC 12 taking for markets and branding, and to extend time zone reach. Kansas is a hoops school and… Read more »
Allen, Scott struck me as extraordinarily arrogant and narcissistic. He never acted as a person of humility nor showed any willingness to admit his own weaknesses or mistakes. If I have him correct, he would probably think he could handle this much better than the present Commissioner. He might be glad to no longer be leading a group that failed to appreciate his abilities. But as to solving this issue, Scott most likely thinks he could do the job magnificently.
It’ll be very interesting to see where Scott lands. He’s clearly used to living the high life. I don’t see his experience as the Pac-12 commish as helping him in the slightest. It’s more like a giant scarlet letter he’s wearing.
Why would he need to work again? Commish Larry got stupid money from the Pac-12 like Jar Jar the Cat is getting from SC. Big money for sorrowful results–Jar Jar and Larry are in that club of dubious distinction.
I also think it’s driving him crazy having to sit by and watch from the sidelines while Kliavkoff gets all the headlines, and a real shot at fixing the Pac-12 so early.
Timmay, I totally disagree. For an excellent analysis of why SC should NOT stay in the Pac, I suggest Arledge’s most recent article in WeAreSC.com. The correct move is for SC to leave the Pac for the B10. In fact, it is not even a close decision. The B10 is a much better brand than the Pac and adding SC will only strengthen it. Right now B10 teams media package produces I think $30 millions a year more than the Pac. In the era of NILs and expanded playoffs, SC needs to be in a conference that will protect its… Read more »
Half of what was said in Chris’s write up is inapplicable to what I shared– my post already dealt with not including WV, Iowa, Iowa St., K State. There was something about getting rid of sharing a pie with bottom feeders in the PAC 12 (OSU, Wazzou). Um, welcome to sharing a pie with the bottom feeders and tiny and dying markets of the Big 10. The focus Chris was making was on being in with the marquee names and playing them. Any conference alignment will be sure to mean that the marquee names, Ohio State, and Michigan if it… Read more »
Timmay, Thanks for the response. It appears that your disagreement with both myself and Arledge deals with markets. While we may disagree on what constitutes a dying and growing area, what matters is the value of the football brand. B10 football sells. The value is the market power and the B10 has significantly more power than the PAC. See the post above on the value of media rights. Both Allen and I agree SC will stay in the Pac. I think it is a mistake, but I also think that is what this Administration will not make the move.
As I said yesterday— stay away from the BIG12. I tend to agree with you that SC should move on from the PAC-12. SC/O/UCLA/WA could add real value to the BIG10. Bringing CA/S along is a good option as well. But absent that a scheduling agreement with the BIG10 could benefit both conferences. IMHO at minimum USC must flex its strength & demand a bigger piece of the pie.
I so agree, USC has carried the Pac12 for decades and now they need to be paid for all they have done, and the money they have lost by staying. Reparations??
Watch the welcome OU and UT get when they are visitors for conference games this season. Along with all the boos and fan harassments, I wouldn’t doubt someone turns off the hot water for their showers after the game. Maybe the lights too. LOL
USC is resuming alcohol sales at the Coliseum this fall. The message is — Clay’s your coach, … DRINK UP!
Who needs Bru McCoy? USC remains loaded with superior WRs, both ready to play and ready to develop with big credentials:
K.D. Nixon – RS SR
Zach Wilson – RS JR
Drake London – JR
John Jackson III – JR
Jake Smith – JR
Chase Locke – RS Soph
Kyle Ford – RS Soph
Tahj Washington – RS Soph
Gary Bryant Jr. – Soph
Danny Ryan – RS Frosh
Ty Shamblin – RS Frosh
Josiah Zamora – Frosh
Joseph Manjack IV – Frosh
Michael Jackson III – Frosh
Kyron Ware-Hudson – Frosh
Do we need that many wide receivers/flankers?
They seem to need the numbers because they get hurt so much and if you notice the classes are pretty well balanced.
I get your point, but do any of these have the ability to impact a game like BM did against ASU last year? Maybe Drake London, but that’s it. Very unfortunate for both this young man and USC.
None are as physical as anti, but there are quite a few that are as impactful. Kyle Ford and Gary Bryant are both equally or more explosive. Jake Smith is stud. There’s lots of guys who can step in and fill the gap.
Agree. McCoy is easily replaced by other USC talent.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, now with the Lions, miraculously tipped that TD toss right to Bru McCoy. St. Brown was the hero of that play. If we had lost Drake London, that would be cause for concern. Losing McCoy isn’t nearly that significant of a loss. Based on the list of WRs I reprinted above, as well as USC’s well-established rep for manufacturing WRs every year like they come off an assembly line, USC should have no problem. I don’t even think USC is gonna miss McCoy for a minute. I hope he somehow successfully straightens out his problems with his… Read more »
Matt Barkley, originally drafted in 2013 by Philadelphia, and having spent the last three years with Buffalo (nine overall in the NFL), has signed with the Tennessee Titans as a backup to Ryan Tannehill. Barkley has been with the Bills, Eagles, Cardinals, and Bears.
He’s gonna get that 10-year pension. Not many people would have thought that Barkley would last that long in the League….
Agreed. QB is a different animal, especially NFL. There are lots of backups who are really stable guys. They are smart, high character, no issues. It’s almost better to roll the dice on a starter with a high ceiling who may not turn out than a backup.
Seems to me that everyone has an opinion and there are sure a lot of them flying around the internet. If we give it time it will all come to some sort of conclusion and I am sure someone will predict it right. I have enjoyed just sitting back and reading the experts predictions. My opinion was that they needed a new conference, but it would have included UT and OU which is now pretty much a done deal with the SEC. If college football is going the way of money first before all else I can see it being… Read more »
4 weeks, 1 day, 18 hours till kick off. What is the training camp schedule?
Bottom line are these. 1 Both B1G and PAC 12 Fox/ESPN media rights deals are up 2024. 2 Last year 14 B1G schools got $54M media per school; PAC 12’s 12 schools got $33M. That’s $21M less! 3 B1G is the richest Conf. 4 Add all the Big 12 schools, add BYU, add Boise St and none of those are bringing $21M more in media dollars to PAC 12 schools …… Because …… 5 UT and OU are leaving because their football games avg 3M-3.5M viewers/game; rest of Big 12 averages a paltry 800K views/game. IMO this all ends with… Read more »
I think it will just be one division with no conferences at all. 40-50 teams. It will be a football only conference. All of the other sports will stay with conference agitation or some sort of shakeup affiliation.
Washington, Oregon, USC, and UCLA will be in big 10 soon.
Don’t want UCLA (or Cal). USC is who the B1G wants, and UW, Oregon. I wont be surprised if CU, Utah, Zona join.
If they take Kansas they will take UCLA. Both will add to basketball revenue
Just received the following email: Dear Trojan Family, I hope this note finds you and your loved ones safe and healthy. It’s been 621 days since the Trojan Family has been together in the Coliseum, and we are thrilled to welcome you back this season! Thank you for your support of our student-athletes and commitment to USC and our athletics program. More than ever, our historic stadium and passionate fans will provide an immense home field advantage to our team. Our players appreciate our fans and rely on you to create a daunting environment for our opponents, so let’s… Read more »
Yes, really good article.
Per Buckeye Scoop Morning Scoop Wednesday podcast interview of an “insider” (who first broke Quinn Ewers reclassifying over a month ago and has been right (not always) other times): (1). Kansas to B1G has legs, (2) Big 12/PAC 12 is just a desperation move by Big 12, (3) “USC knows” it has to leave and has reached out to the B1G, (4) USC doesn’t want to “go alone.”
Just talking to a friend that works in the PAC 12 office that has no real say, lol, not all my idea, hear us out. Big 12, which has 10 teams, soon to have 8 is talking about merging with PAC 12. Hm. Kansas State and Iowa State are useless, tiny and shrinking markets, mediocre brands, and no chance for real national branding… West Virginia is also tiny market and too far. So we are down to 5 schools worth the PAC 12 taking for markets and branding, and to extend time zone reach. Kansas is a hoops school and… Read more »
Well thought out. You pretty much covered it all. It’s just such a huge decision.
I wonder if Larry Scott is dying not being in on the future-determining action, or if he’s grateful this hot potato is off his plate?
Allen, Scott struck me as extraordinarily arrogant and narcissistic. He never acted as a person of humility nor showed any willingness to admit his own weaknesses or mistakes. If I have him correct, he would probably think he could handle this much better than the present Commissioner. He might be glad to no longer be leading a group that failed to appreciate his abilities. But as to solving this issue, Scott most likely thinks he could do the job magnificently.
It’ll be very interesting to see where Scott lands. He’s clearly used to living the high life. I don’t see his experience as the Pac-12 commish as helping him in the slightest. It’s more like a giant scarlet letter he’s wearing.
Why would he need to work again? Commish Larry got stupid money from the Pac-12 like Jar Jar the Cat is getting from SC. Big money for sorrowful results–Jar Jar and Larry are in that club of dubious distinction.
I’m betting Scott is addicted to the “action.”
I also think it’s driving him crazy having to sit by and watch from the sidelines while Kliavkoff gets all the headlines, and a real shot at fixing the Pac-12 so early.
So he is a legend in his own mind?
Timmay, I totally disagree. For an excellent analysis of why SC should NOT stay in the Pac, I suggest Arledge’s most recent article in WeAreSC.com. The correct move is for SC to leave the Pac for the B10. In fact, it is not even a close decision. The B10 is a much better brand than the Pac and adding SC will only strengthen it. Right now B10 teams media package produces I think $30 millions a year more than the Pac. In the era of NILs and expanded playoffs, SC needs to be in a conference that will protect its… Read more »
Arledge — Musings from Arledge: A Pac-12-Big 12 merger
wearesc.com
Chris is right. His well articulated musing sounds like the very thing the wise Trojan5 spelled out yesterday.
Half of what was said in Chris’s write up is inapplicable to what I shared– my post already dealt with not including WV, Iowa, Iowa St., K State. There was something about getting rid of sharing a pie with bottom feeders in the PAC 12 (OSU, Wazzou). Um, welcome to sharing a pie with the bottom feeders and tiny and dying markets of the Big 10. The focus Chris was making was on being in with the marquee names and playing them. Any conference alignment will be sure to mean that the marquee names, Ohio State, and Michigan if it… Read more »
Timmay, Thanks for the response. It appears that your disagreement with both myself and Arledge deals with markets. While we may disagree on what constitutes a dying and growing area, what matters is the value of the football brand. B10 football sells. The value is the market power and the B10 has significantly more power than the PAC. See the post above on the value of media rights. Both Allen and I agree SC will stay in the Pac. I think it is a mistake, but I also think that is what this Administration will not make the move.
As I said yesterday— stay away from the BIG12. I tend to agree with you that SC should move on from the PAC-12. SC/O/UCLA/WA could add real value to the BIG10. Bringing CA/S along is a good option as well. But absent that a scheduling agreement with the BIG10 could benefit both conferences. IMHO at minimum USC must flex its strength & demand a bigger piece of the pie.
I so agree, USC has carried the Pac12 for decades and now they need to be paid for all they have done, and the money they have lost by staying. Reparations??
How topical, Steveg, when looking at the bigger current events of our suckified era in US history!😄
Great minds think alike doc.
This was a really good article.