Is Having Caleb Williams On Your Team Enough To Beat Notre Dame?

Roundtable: What does USC have to do to beat Notre Dame on Saturday?

USC quarterback Caleb Williams leaps to throw as Arizona Wildcats linebacker Justin Flowe closes in.Caleb Williams leaps to throw as ARIZ Wildcats LB Justin Flowe closes in at the Coliseum on Saturday. (Gina Ferazzi / LAT)

How concerned should USC be about its defense and are there any quick fixes available?

Ryan Kartje (LAT): Lincoln Riley has done his best to project confidence about where USC’s defense is headed, but nothing about the last three games suggests the Trojans will be fine going forward. Three of the six teams USC faced so far rank among the lowest-scoring groups in college football. We have yet to see the Trojans face an explosive offense, and yet they’ve still coughed up 421 yards per game, among the bottom 25 nationally. The best quarterback USC has faced so far might honestly be Arizona’s Noah Fifita, who torched the secondary for 303 yards and five touchdowns on Saturday night.

Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and Oregon’s Bo Nix, both Heisman candidates in their own right, have to be licking their chops right now. That’s not to say USC can’t figure some things out before those big matchups in November. The pass-rush tandem of Solomon Byrd and Jamil Muhammad has been a revelation, and Bear Alexander has been a terror on the interior. But some issues, like tackling on the perimeter, continue to go unsolved. Now the secondary is banged up. The inside linebackers are underachieving. You can understand why some USC fans are already spiraling, in spite of the 6-0 start.

Thuc Nhi Nguyen (LAT): Should USC be concerned? Yes. Very concerned. But six games into the season, I almost feel like teams have shown who they are and there’s not much to be done to change it. USC could just be the team that will miss two tackles while giving up an 80-yard touchdown on a simple screen pass then come up with a huge tackle for loss on the next play. Fans are going to hate it. I hope everyone is working on their favorite stress-relief methods each week. But perhaps the best-case scenario is that the Trojans can at least produce the big play when the big play is needed. They got killed on that toss play several times against Arizona, but when they needed the stop on the two-point conversion attempt in triple overtime, they got it. And it all counts as a win in the end.

J. Brady McCollough (LAT): After an offseason that was supposed to be devoted to fixing its defense, USC finds itself 109th nationally in total defense and 76th in scoring defense halfway through the season. This is an unequivocal failure, to the point that few USC fans would have any issue with Lincoln Riley firing Alex Grinch midseason even though such a move would traditionally be extremely risky. But could USC’s defense play any worse with a new coordinator who has fresh eyes on the situation than it did on Saturday against Arizona? Whatever Grinch is putting out there to the Trojans isn’t sticking. Since Riley won’t make a rash move against his guy, USC will have to tinker with its scheme and personnel. I’m no defensive expert, but the best thing the Trojans could do is simplify the scheme and choose personnel who are most likely to be in the right place. When I watch USC’s players, I don’t see much confidence in what their job is and how to execute it on each play.

Have your expectations of USC changed after six games?

NguyenThere were College Football Playoff hopes heading into the season, but with a schedule that included road games at Notre Dame and Oregon and hosting Washington, I can’t say I believed those hopes were truly expectations. It never felt plausible that the Trojans were going to run the table, but USC looks even further from the playoff than anticipated at this point in the season. With the performance of other Pac-12 teams, I’m wondering whether the Trojans even make it to the conference championship game now.

KartjeI knew USC wouldn’t fix its defense overnight, but with a generational quarterback like Caleb Williams, maybe it wouldn’t matter so much in the grand scheme. Well, ummm … not so sure that’s the case. USC is still 6-0, and that counts for something. But you don’t need a “trained eye” to understand the defense is bound to cost USC a game, sooner rather than later. Against teams like Washington and Oregon, even Williams won’t be able to save them. Both the Huskies and Ducks are serious playoff contenders that pile up more yards than any other offense in college football, USC’s included. They could very well combine for 1,000 yards and 100 points when they face the Trojans during consecutive weeks next month. With Notre Dame and Utah upcoming, USC may not even make it that far unscathed.

McColloughWell, I picked USC to make the playoff, and now I am having a very hard time seeing that happen. For one, it’s a crowded field nationally. Georgia isn’t going anywhere. The Big Ten will get at least one team from Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. Oklahoma and Texas are likely to play again with a playoff spot potentially up for grabs. Florida State has positioned itself well for the stretch run. And that’s not even mentioning Washington and Oregon, which play Saturday in a game that will spring one of them forward in the discussion. Entering the season, I had assumed that 12-1 would get USC into the playoff, but I am no longer certain of that. And, most importantly, I’m far less certain of the Trojans’ ability to navigate this schedule losing one game.

What does USC have to do to beat Notre Dame?

NguyenJust tackle someone on the first try. USC missed 15 tackles against Arizona State and 17 tackles apiece against Colorado and Arizona. Whether it’s a combination of bad technique, bad angles or a bad mentality, the Trojans need to figure out their tackling woes to make anything happen on defense.

KartjeLouisville provided the blueprint in its upset win over Notre Dame last Saturday: It starts with getting pressure on Irish quarterback Sam Hartman. It’s paramount that USC’s pass rush makes Hartman uncomfortable. A bounce-back game from the Trojans’ star passer couldn’t hurt, either. Williams looked a little out of sorts against Arizona, and without him playing at his peak, USC might struggle to win any big games from here.

McColloughThis goes against Riley’s identity as a coach, but it wouldn’t hurt to slow down the tempo a bit on offense and run the ball more with standout running back MarShawn Lloyd. Simply put, USC’s defense needs to be on the field less, not more, so that the Trojans aren’t gassed for what is sure to be a hard-fought fourth quarter in South Bend.

Who has surprised you the most from USC?

KartjeI didn’t anticipate that MarShawn Lloyd would become such an essential part of USC’s offense so quickly, but there’s no one outside of Williams who has made a bigger impact. Lloyd is averaging 7.75 yards per carry, nearly five of which have come after contact. Not only is he a load to take down, but he’s more nimble than expected, just as capable of switching directions or shaking off defenders as he is bowling them over. Relying on the run game might not come naturally to Riley, but with Lloyd looking like one of the best USC ball carriers in recent memory, maybe it wouldn’t hurt to have Williams hand it off more often.

NguyenBrenden Rice’s emergence in the passing game has been huge for the Trojans. Caleb Williams gets so much (deserved) credit, but Rice saved his quarterback on several throws against Arizona, adjusting to an under-thrown pass and turning it into a huge gain. Everyone was so excited about a new group of freshman receivers, including five-star Zachariah Branch who has provided huge fireworks on special teams, but Rice’s consistency has been an underrated asset in one of the most prolific offenses in the country.

latimes.com

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Golden Trojan
Major Genius
October 11, 2023 7:37 am
Reply to  Allen Wallace

When you rank #109 in the nation in total defense, there are NOT “a lot of great things happening”! LR is shoveling out Traveler’s stable. The #109 defense goes against the #35 offense (ND), while the #12 defense (ND) goes against the #1 scoring offense should be a wild one.

Golden Trojan
Major Genius
October 10, 2023 4:07 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

Just tell Freeman both sides will just play with 10. Save a lot of confusion with both teams!

Steveg
Major Genius
Steveg
Offline
October 10, 2023 6:10 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

Whats funny is they probably still can’t grasp it and don’t understand where all that money they need is going to come from.

Golden Trojan
Major Genius
October 10, 2023 2:07 pm

Some arm chair observations on USC beating ND. On offense, quit telegraphing run or pass. Put the RB 2-3 yards behind Caleb every play. Have a good mix up run and pass then play action will start to work. Quit taking so long with the ROP. Caleb quit trying to make a Heisman play every play. On defense, the players you have can’t run your schemes, not sure if anyone can. A good coach adapts his game plan to fit his players. You don’t need to out scheme the ND offense. A base defense with SC’s talent will be enough… Read more »

Steveg
Major Genius
Steveg
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October 10, 2023 6:08 pm
Reply to  Golden Trojan

You sound like me.

Golden Trojan
Major Genius
October 11, 2023 9:25 am
Reply to  Steveg

Great minds and all that!😉

TrojanRJJ
Noble Genius
TrojanRJJ
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October 10, 2023 12:34 pm

I thought the Board might enjoy the exchange I had with a OU grad I know well. When Riley went to SC and Venables to OU, his thought was that both teams improved. He thought Venables might be a better fit for OU than Riley and Riley was a huge upgrade for SC. After the games last Saturday, I remembered our conversation and agreed, OU is a better team under Venables than under Riley. So, I told him “Your welcome” (meaning, of course, SC taking Riley had improved OU). His response was, “No,thank you for getting rid of Grinch as… Read more »

TrojanRJJ
Noble Genius
TrojanRJJ
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October 10, 2023 12:46 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

Both OU and TX IMO would beat this SC team. I think handily. But, for no reason I can explain or even justify, I feel SC will beat this ND team in South Bend. Should not happen, but I have that intuition.

TrojanRJJ
Noble Genius
TrojanRJJ
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October 10, 2023 12:50 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

No way to know. But, I think without Caleb, my intuition would move from being irrational to insane.

TrojanRJJ
Noble Genius
TrojanRJJ
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October 10, 2023 12:57 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

I have no idea what my intuition is based on. As I said, it is irrational. Even with Caleb, ND should beat us by 14 or more. If our OL and D play like they have the last three games, no way we beat the Irish. Why should I think things will change? Cannot explain it. Remember, the computer projections you put up? Even with Caleb, based on our past performance, we have only a 42% change of winning. I think that is rational.

USC1988
Noble Genius
USC1988
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October 10, 2023 3:25 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

Gomer teams aside … SC always seems to play well in SB. Even Mike Van Raahoorst ( Miller Moss like) and Reggie Perry battled hard there, in the 90’s, before blowing it at the end.
I expect SC to play well. Of course, NDs O, despite their bad OC will move the ball at will. The weather too, looks to be a factor.
If we get out coached. We have big problems.

USC1988
Noble Genius
USC1988
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October 10, 2023 5:40 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

Went to each at SB battle since 1983 ( quit during the Kiffy/Suck/Gomer years) and didn’t see a win until 1997. Then SC rattled off wins in 4 straight from 2003 to 2009! (5 but didn’t go in 2011). Looking forward to starting another streak Saturday. A win would be huge.

ATL D.D.S.
Noble Genius
ATL D.D.S.
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October 10, 2023 5:24 pm
Reply to  TrojanRJJ

From the experience of visiting south bend a dozen or so times to watch this game in Octobers past, the ND home advantage is worth a full seven points to them, IMHO.

volunteerTrojan
Major Genius
October 11, 2023 8:20 pm
Reply to  ATL D.D.S.

Remember when they let the grass grow long to slow us down? That didn’t work out so well for them. At least they can’t try that again.

USC1988
Noble Genius
USC1988
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October 11, 2023 11:35 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

Dez Reed 2005 opening kick off

Jamaica
Noble Genius
Jamaica
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October 10, 2023 1:11 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

What I don’t want to see is the receivers run to a spot and then stop trying to gt open. That’s a killer and Riley should send them off the field. And for the tackling? Work on the fundementals. Practice tackling until the defense s sick of it. Go back to basics and stay on them during the week.

USC1988
Noble Genius
USC1988
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October 10, 2023 3:28 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

Zona simply ran the toss play to short side of the field … had they went the other way. One missed tackle, maybe two and score.

Steveg
Major Genius
Steveg
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October 10, 2023 1:43 pm
Reply to  TrojanRJJ

I have that same feeling, not sure why.

USC1988
Noble Genius
USC1988
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October 10, 2023 5:29 pm
Reply to  Steveg

Grinch gets schooled vs ND … it’s time to go. Which I believe will happen with a loss. The confidence opposing Os have vs woeful inexplainable D is what is mostly annoying. Finally, we go up 28-20, momentum galore, big crowd in to it. Boom Zona goes 92 ydS converting a 2nd and 23 (3rd and 9) two 4th downs and a 2 pt conversion. Caleb brilliant 18 yd TD run in 1st OT, we got it … nah 1 play easy lob TD to tie ( and didn’t go for 2 !). Well maybe this is just the Cardiac… Read more »

Steveg
Major Genius
Steveg
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October 10, 2023 11:56 am

USC has gone into ND with worse teams and much better teams, and the outcome it seems is quite up in the air until the game ends. This is one of those games where emotion plays a big part, I think much more for USC than ND, especially this season. Does Riley have an offense that nobody has seen ready to break out? Does Grinch finally scale back the defensive schemes and let the boys play? I have been wrong about this team since game one, but for some reason something is saying USC is going to blow everybody away… Read more »

TrojanRJJ
Noble Genius
TrojanRJJ
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October 10, 2023 12:50 pm
Reply to  Steveg

Steveg, I have the same feeling. I cannot explain it Candidly it is irrational. Our OL has played like crap for the last three games against lesser teams, and our D is a grease fire led by at best a mediocre DC. Our second best player on O (Zech Branch) is not playing. It makes zero sense, but something inside me shares your feeling.

Steveg
Major Genius
Steveg
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October 10, 2023 1:49 pm
Reply to  TrojanRJJ

My rationale is that Riley is smart enough to have a bag full of offensive plays and formations nobody has seen. With a few stops by the defense with someone handcuffing Grinch so he cannot signal defensive bizarre schemes we can pull it off. I do think the bodies are there on the front 6, now if the DBs will just look for the ball.

illinoisusc
Major Genius
illinoisusc
Offline
October 10, 2023 11:52 am

Depends on which Caleb shows up. If the one that played Arizona in the first half shows up we are doomed. If the one that played Stanford shows up we’ll have a nice night.
and…..I’am not knocking him…..every human being has an off day every so often…..as long as it does not become the norm.

TrojanRJJ
Noble Genius
TrojanRJJ
Offline
October 10, 2023 12:43 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

Totally agree. All of us were willing to give LR a chance on keeping Grinch (although I was convinced that it was a huge mistake). Well, LR laid a gigantic egg with that decision, showing as you point out below, that LR simply does not understand D. And, without Caleb, this team is at best a 6-6 team, if that. Really amazing that one player could make that much difference, but he clearly does.

HOF19
Noble Genius
HOF19
Offline
October 10, 2023 11:22 am

Is there another player on this USC Roster (and per the USC “HYPE” there should be at least 3-4) that will be a top 15-20 First Round picks in the next Draft ? ……The USC HYPE said all spring and Summer “YES ” to that question .

HOF19
Noble Genius
HOF19
Offline
October 10, 2023 11:14 am

Too reach the highest possible level this team Needs more than one ……I’ll call it Super Star player because having just one (Caleb ) ain’t gonna get it done …..Fight On !!!!!

HOF19
Noble Genius
HOF19
Offline
October 10, 2023 11:10 am

Having a plan that relies too much on Caleb is a bad plan . And I put this thought out there >>>>> If 60% of the reason this USC Team wins game is Caleb ( one single human being) than what does that say about the rest of this roster ????? …..Overrated ?????

HOF19
Noble Genius
HOF19
Offline
October 10, 2023 11:17 am
Reply to  Allen Wallace

Since “The Portal idea ” was first announced I have been putting less …….Say “Stock ” in it’s overall value …..Fight On !!!!!

RialtoTrojan
Noble Genius
RialtoTrojan
Offline
October 10, 2023 11:04 am

First Caleb Williams is enough to beat Notre Dame if the USC defense is just average. Caleb is more polished than people see. For instance his posturing about staying in college isn’t about staying in college. He’s telling the teams he likes to trade up if they want him. (Although I have long maintained that the draft is a crappy way to go for quarterbacks.) Anyway it’s getting to the point where people are wondering if offensive genius is enough to be a head coach. Many people including myself are saying Riley doesn’t care about defense and thus will never… Read more »