Northwestern (5-3 overall, 3-2 Big Ten) at No. 20 USC (6-2, 4-1), Friday, 6 p.m PT, L.A. Coliseum, FOX (Ch. 11)/710 AM

Line: USC by 14½ points

Haley Sawyer (OC Register)  —  NOTABLE INJURIES

USC: OUT: RB Waymond Jordan (ankle), DL Jamaal Jarrett (undisclosed), CB Prophet Brown (undisclosed), RB Eli Sanders (knee), CB Chasen Johnson (knee); QUESTIONABLE: CB DJ Harvey (undisclosed), LB Anthony Beavers, Jr. (undisclosed), OL Micah Banuelos (undisclosed), DL Floyd Boucard (undisclosed), K Caden Chittenden (undisclosed), OL Kilian O’Connor (undisclosed).

Northwestern: OUT: CB J.J. Lewis (undisclosed), LB Yannis Karlaftis (undisclosed), DL Dylan Roberts (undisclosed), RB Cam Porter (leg); QUESTIONABLE: LB Lincoln Creager (undisclosed), WR Braden Blueitt (undisclosed), OL Jace Borcherding (undisclosed), WR Tate Crane (undisclosed), LB Christian Smith (undisclosed), DL Braxton Strong (undisclosed), DL Migo Jackson (undisclosed), CB Ore Adeyi (undisclosed), WR Cam Russell (undisclosed), WR Carson Grove (undisclosed).

What’s at stake? November is bowl eligibility season, and these teams are thinking about their postseason futures through different lenses. There’s more at stake for USC, which is on track to earn a College Football Playoff bid if it can win its final four regular-season games. So every game is do or die. The CFP committee released its first rankings of the season Tuesday: USC was No. 19.

As far as bowl eligibility, ESPN’s experts are projecting the Trojans to play in the Alamo Bowl on Dec. 30 in San Antonio or the Holiday Bowl on Jan. 2 in San Diego. Northwestern is projected to play in the Dec. 26 Rate Bowl in Phoenix against Baylor.

The truth is, with Northwestern coming to Los Angeles off a bye as a 14.5 point dog, USC simply cannot afford to lose this game against a not very explosive Wildcat offense. A loss at the Coliseum to these improved 5-3 Wildcats would be a terrible, backbreaking blow to the Trojans who are desperately trying under often beleaguered Lincoln Riley to become a championship caliber team in his fourth year on the job.

Oct 11, 2025; Los Angeles, CA, Lincoln Riley celebrates after kicker Ryon Sayeri hit a 54-yd FG in the second half against MICH. USC won 31-13. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images)

Who’s better? This was already one of the most winnable games on the Trojans’ Big Ten slate, and the odds only increased in their favor when Northwestern lost leading rusher Cam Porter to a season-ending leg injury in Week 2.

The Wildcats are now led by running back Caleb Komolafe. He has 124 carries for 608 yards and seven rushing touchdowns on the season including his 125 yards, two touchdown performance against Nebraska.

USC’s explosive offense will need to return to form after last week’s season-low passing performance in defeating Nebraska against a stiff Wildcats secondary that allows roughly 170 yards passing per game, ranking 14th nationally.

“Defensively, they don’t give you much,” Riley said. “They don’t give up a lot of big plays; they play really sound. When somebody makes a play against them, they really earned it. And that’s a sign of really good defensive play.”

Matchup to watch: USC’s linebackers vs. Northwestern quarterback Preston Stone (formerly at SMU for four years but lost starting job). The win in Nebraska was the Trojans’ highest-graded defensive performance by Pro Football Focus since Week 3 at Purdue and two out of the three highest-graded players were linebackers Eric Gentry and Desman Stephens II.

USC’s ability to get to the inconsistent Stone and force turnovers will be key  — all three of Northwestern’s losses (two of which were 20-point defeats at the hands of Tulane and Oregon) have come when Stone has thrown multiple interceptions. He has 10 touchdowns against nine interceptions (he leads the Big Ten) for the season so far.

USC wins if: The Trojans need a complete-game effort from the offense and defense to keep this from turning into a trap game, with Iowa coming to town next Saturday. Northwestern head coach David Braun called the versatile USC offense “a scary operation.  And if they’re able to find rhythm, watch out. They’re going to make some big plays, and they’re going to find ways at times to get into rhythm. But how do we get them back out of rhythm? And then, obviously, one of your best defenses against a team like that is not allowing them to possess the football.”

The USC defense finally clicked last week against Nebraska, while quarterback Jayden Maiava (9 of 23, 135 yards, no touchdowns, one interception) had his worst passing performance of the season, but did manage to rush for 62 key yards and a score. Can Maiava bounce back? With five interceptions in his last four games, he hasn’t been as sharp lately.

Solid performances from both sides will not only earn the win, but set the Trojans up for a shot at the playoffs  —  if they can beat Oregon in Eugene on Nov. 22, viewed as a very tough order for these Trojans. Iowa and UCLA at the Coliseum don’t seem quite as worrisome, though USC is capable of losing to both.

Possible Northwestern advantage: Braun on getting to see USC take on Nebraska one week after Northwestern played and lost in Lincoln, 28-21: “It is a great tool. I mean, ultimately, we’re very familiar with Nebraska in terms of the recency of that game, we’re very familiar with our study of USC from when we began prep. Just an understanding of, How is USC attacking Nebraska? How could that potentially correlate to how they’re going to attack us?

 “Ultimately, in the Big Ten, the thing that continues to show up is, you better be able to run the ball and stop the run,” said Braun. “We have to win the rushing battle. And one of the natural results of winning the rushing battle, when you’re running the ball efficiently, is possessing the football, and that’ll have to show up Friday night.”

Prediction: USC 38, Northwestern 21. The Trojans really get after it back in the Coliseum, where they get a big boost on a Friday night, and show good focus and execution on offense, defense and special teams. The short week ends up not hindering USC and they don’t succumb to this classic “trap game” scenario as USC keeps their playoff bid hopes alive with one of their better performances of the year.

ocregister.com

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