No. 23 USC vs. No. 13 LSU

4:30 p.m. PT Sunday, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas

TV/radio: ABC/ESPN LA 710 AM

Luca Evans and Mirjam Swanson (OC Register)  —  No Rice, no San Jose State, no cupcakes on the menu this year.

We’re skipping dessert and solely savoring the main course: potential playoff contenders USC and LSU, a game so juicy it could alter the course of both programs this season  —  and beyond.

Yes, we’re talking a must-win Game 1.

The Trojans need this. The fun thing is, so do the Tigers, who haven’t won an opener since their 2019 national title campaign. That includes dropping the past two to Florida State under head coach Brian Kelly, who can ill afford to lose another one of these.

LSU is a 4.5-point favorite against USC, but let’s be serious: This contest between college football titans, mirror images in so many ways, feels like a coin flip.

And if it goes the Trojans’ way, it will put them on a trajectory toward a real run at that 12-team College Football Playoff pool.

There are stakes, in fact, for just about every position within the program. Anointed starting QB Moss will be tested to run Riley’s offense crisply in the second start of his collegiate career. A young and beefed-up offensive line will need to stand against an SEC front. And new DC Lynn’s scheme faces a challenge against an LSU offense, post-Jayden Daniels, still brimming with playmakers.

“I like it, I like playing a marquee game early,” Riley said this week. “I like playing a good opponent early. I think there are a ton of positives, and like I said, there’s been a momentum and an excitement about this that’s been building a long time.”

LSU, meanwhile, has a fairly black-and-white surface motivator: They haven’t won an opener in the Brian Kelly era, and haven’t even won one since 2019.

Who’s better? There are few real clear advantages on two fairly overhauled rosters. USC’s secondary is deeper than LSU’s, both programs operating under new defensive coordinators (Lynn and Blake Baker, respectively), while both programs have a ton of talent at the skill positions – LSU returns standout receiver Kyren Lacy and imported Liberty transfer C.J. Daniels.

The overall edge here, though, goes to LSU thanks to a clearly stronger offensive line, which will be crucial in Vegas. Four critical pieces of the Tigers’ 2023 offensive line return, including tackle Will Campbell, whose comments on getting into a “fistfight” in Vegas went viral earlier in the week.

Matchup to watch: USC’s defensive line vs. LSU’s offensive line. Campbell made perfectly clear that the Tigers intend to run the ball this season despite their bevy of talent at receiver, and a Trojans front that has caused buzz over its bulk needs to show an improvement from last season’s unit. Keep a close eye if Bear Alexander, Gavin Meyer and Nate Clifton can consistently stuff gaps and move the pocket from the middle – it could set the tenor of an entire season.

USC wins if: Moss gets the ball out quickly, plays largely mistake-free and completes more than 70% of his passes, and if Alexander, Meyer, Clifton, Jamil Muhammad and USC’s defensive line can put enough pressure on LSU starting QB Garrett Nussmeier for a revamped secondary to take advantage.

Prediction: LSU 38, USC 31. Despite defenses that should show improvement from 2023 predecessors, the stage is still set for a shootout in Vegas – but the Tigers’ strength on the interior should give them a more consistent advantage.