Game Day — It’s Already Do Or Die For USC

Trojans are against the wall: What to watch when USC, losers of seven of its last twelve, plays host to Penn State

Trojans coach Lincoln Riley studies his play card during a time out against Wisconsin.

Trojans coach Lincoln Riley has definitely not made all the right calls from his play sheet this season. Some of his decisions have been real head-scratchers. (Gina Ferazzi / LAT) 

3-2 USC vs. #4 5-0 Penn State, Saturday, 12:30 p.m. PT, L.A. Memorial Coliseum, CBS (Ch. 2) / 710 AM

Current Line: Penn State by 3½

Ryan Kartje (LA Times —  The refrain felt frustratingly familiar. Here again, in the wake of another disappointing defeat, was the same rosy message from Lincoln Riley, reassuring the public that USC was really just a few plays, a few stops, a few inches away from where its coach wanted them to be.

It’s all a matter of perspective. Still, however close USC might have come, however “battle-tested” it might now be, the harsh reality is Riley has lost seven of his last 12 as the Trojans coach. That’s equivalent to the worst 12-game stretch of Clay Helton’s tenure as USC’s coach.

With No. 4 Penn State on tap Saturday at the Coliseum, the Trojans now find themselves playing for their College Football Playoff lives in mid-October, with zero room for error.

“I promise you,” Riley said this week, “we’re still a very confident team. This isn’t some team that has two losses where we got our ass kicked. No, that’s not the case. We know what we’re capable of.”

Miller Moss had a lot of time to consider that subject on the long flight home from Minneapolis on Oct. 5.

“The most important thing for us right now,” the quarterback said, “is everything we stood for, we worked for, all the messages we said to the team that said what we were about, when you face adversity like this, that’s when that gets tested the most.”

Coming up, against Penn State this weekend, is that fork-in-the-road moment.

“We have two pretty clear choices,” Moss continued. “Double down on who we are and get closer as a team and go forward with the great opportunity we have this weekend, or let this affect us and deter us from what we ultimately want to do.”

We should, by Saturday night, have a much better idea which path the Trojans have chosen.

Rundown run defense
Penn State's Nicholas Singleton (10) scores a touchdown while being chased by Kent State's Dallas Branch (15).

Electric PSU RB Nicholas Singleton has been leaving opposing defenses in his dust this season and will be healthy for USC, which has struggled to stop the run. (Barry Reeger / AP)

It was the classic Big Ten blueprint. Run the ball. Limit possessions. Grind the clock.

Throw a heavy dose of soft-zone defensive coverage at Moss and Riley to limit big plays. Wait out offensive impatience until the Trojans slip and beat themselves with turnovers.

For USC against Minnesota, there was little its defense could do to stop their heavy ground attack. The Golden Gophers piled up a whopping 193 rushing yards and three touchdowns in 40 carries, nine of which came on the final game-winning drive.

It was strikingly similar to what worked for Michigan against USC two weeks earlier. With an even more potent rushing attack to face this weekend, no reason to think Penn State won’t follow the same plan.

Penn State comes into Saturday as the second-most run-heavy offense in the Big Ten — 40 attempts per game — with a pair of running backs in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen that both rank among the best in the conference. Singleton, especially, has been electric this season, picking up nearly eight yards per carry.

“Probably the best two we’ll see so far,” linebacker Easton Mascarenas-Arnold said of the two backs.

It’s not like things have gone well so far for USC’s run defense. The Trojans rank 17th in the conference in rush defense, at a clip of more than 158 yards allowed per game. That’s nearly a 30-yard improvement from last season’s unit. In the Big Ten, however, where teams are content to play “keep away” from USC, it’s not good enough.

Making matters more difficult, USC once again won’t have Eric Gentry, its leader in tackles for lost yardage and sacks.

Big-play Zachariah Branch?
Michigan's Zeke Berry (10) breaks up a pass intended for USC's Zachariah Branch (1) as Brandyn Hillman (6) pursues.

Speedy USC receiver Zachariah Branch has drawn much attention from opposing defenses this season.  While he’s been a good decoy, he hasn’t been anything close to a game-breaker, so far. (Paul Sancya / AP)

Big plays always have been an essential part of Riley’s offense but they haven’t been quite as easy to come by as usual this season for Moss and Co.

USC ranks 71st in the nation in explosive plays of 20 yards or more, far below the usual range for a Riley-led offense. Before this year, Riley’s offenses at USC and Oklahoma had finished outside of the top 10 one time. The last two seasons, USC ranked in the top four.

A quiet start to the season from Zachariah Branch, the Trojans’ most dynamic open-field weapon, has not helped in that regard. Branch has been limited to 54 combined yards receiving over the last two weeks. He also has made a few costly mistakes in the process, such as muffing a punt against Wisconsin and dropping a key third-down pass against Minnesota.

Riley acknowledged Monday that Branch was “pressing a little bit,” but “was on the cusp of a few more” big plays.

Penn State boasts one of the best defenses at limiting explosive plays in the country, with just 43 plays of 10-plus yards allowed this season, good for fourth best in college football.

It’d be an ideal time for Branch to break out of his slump. Moss is not about to stop trying.

“My message to him is I’m going to keep getting him the ball,” Moss said. “He’s going to keep getting the ball in those situations, and he’s going to keep making those plays.”

Pressure party

Trojans defensive tackle Gavin Meyer (91) tries grab Wisconsin quarterback Braedyn Locke (18).

Trojans DT Gavin Meyer (91) tries to grab WIS QB  Braedyn Locke. USC has had major difficulties getting to the QB this season. (Gina Ferazzi / LAT)

When D’Anton Lynn took over UCLA’s defense in 2023, he didn’t have to worry much about creating pressure. He had Laiatu Latu, a future first-round NFL draft pick, screaming off the edge. Or the Murphy twins, wreaking havoc.

Lynn hasn’t seen anywhere near the same pass-rushing success at USC. The Trojans rank last among 18 Big Ten teams in pressures (45) this season.

Penn State, by comparison, has pressured quarterbacks more than twice as much (100). It also boasts one of the best pass rushers in college football in Abdul Carter, who has the same number of pressures through five games (16) as USC’s starting defensive line.

Lynn said he has continued to emphasize generating more pressure “every week.” But at this point, it’s just a matter of players “developing into pass rushers.”

“I think they’ve gotten better,” Lynn said. “And then, from a schematic standpoint, how can we put them in the best positions to succeed?”

Notable injuries

USC: DOUBTFUL: LB Eric Gentry (undisclosed); QUESTIONABLE: CB Jacobe Covington (undisclosed), TE Lake McRee (leg); PROBABLE: DL Anthony Lucas (undisclosed)

Penn State: OUT: RB Cam Wallace (undisclosed), S Kevin Winston Jr. (undisclosed); PROBABLE: RB Nick Singleton (undisclosed), RT Anthony Donkoh (undisclosed)

latimes.com

___________

TrojanDailyBlog members —  We always encourage you to add factual information, insight, divergent opinions, or new topics to the TDB that don’t necessarily pertain to any particular moderator post or member comment.

 

 

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DanaPtTrojan
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October 13, 2024 11:50 am

A neurologist friend raised the issue of undiagnosed “dyschronia”. LR seems unable to make time calculations.

Trojanfanatic
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October 12, 2024 9:52 pm

Just got home from game few hours ago . So we are all beside ourselves. Chris, you always point out the positive in our Trojans and I know you’re at you wits end too. Guys, I’m not trying to blow smoke up you know where, but I seen something today that gives me some hope. Going in opposite order, is our home game fan involvement. I’ve had season tickets since 2016 and I’ve never seen such yelling, rooting, etc as I did today. Packed Coliseum and Penn St actually had a hard time hearing when on offense. I’m proud of us. Fans did our part.… Read more »

UtahTrojan
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October 12, 2024 7:45 pm

Last one.

Lincoln Riley talked after the Minnesota game about being two plays away from being 5-0. Is he going to say USC is three plays away from being 6-0? We told you last week that no one wants to hear Riley or any coach talk about being one or two plays away. That’s a refrain for losers

UtahTrojan
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October 12, 2024 7:30 pm

https://twsn.net/2024/10/the-usc-trojans-will-fire-lincoln-riley-and-hire-kliff-kingsbury-as-their-next-head-coach

i don’t know who would be the right replacement, but I don’t see Kingsbiry being the answer

USC1988
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October 12, 2024 7:40 pm
Reply to  UtahTrojan

No more hot shot OCs … hasn’t worked Goatboy Kiffy was a disaster
Suckisian an embarrassment Gomer not even a coach and now
it’s obvious … LR is not a big winner 3 winnable games and whiffs at the end of each
Lynn is getting as much as he can out of this outmanned D … only Ramsey and maybe Smith have any awareness LBs are middling Dline plays hard but no talent
Unblocked DE missing sack on 4th down was awful

btw, the B1G completely sucks

Jamaica
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October 13, 2024 5:00 pm
Reply to  UtahTrojan

I do and he’s teaching a class at the University right now. Says he still has the energy to lead another program and hasn’t given up looking for his next job.

UtahTrojan
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October 12, 2024 7:19 pm

At some point, playing a close game every week has to be seen as the measurement of what this team is: ordinary. Great teams will win a few close ones during the season, but they will also deliver knockout punches and win games by 17, 21, 15, 13, and 20 points. USC just can’t do that most of the time, and it shows.

UtahTrojan
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October 12, 2024 7:11 pm

Defensive tackle Hakeem Beamon took a large blue and white flag from a cheerleader and attempted to plant it at midfield. That effort did not go well, and then Franklin took the flag from another would-be planter of the flag on the USC logo.

not a Trojan around to stop it?

USC1988
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October 12, 2024 7:58 pm
Reply to  UtahTrojan

Thanks coach … big win for him send LR and refs a thank you

UtahTrojan
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October 12, 2024 7:06 pm

Those appeared to be reserved for Woody Marks, USC’s running back, who burst out of the gates with a big first half, only for Riley to turn away from him in the second. Marks finished with 20 carries for 111 yards.

three games in a row now.

USC1988
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October 12, 2024 7:42 pm
Reply to  UtahTrojan

How about getting Joyner more 4th quarter touches ! You know the guy that scored 2 TDs in 1st quarter
Marks is great but was tired, Joyner was fresh.

UtahTrojan
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October 12, 2024 7:05 pm

That tight end, Tyler Warren, would account for 43% of Penn State’s total offense, torturing USC’s defense in a way that induced flashbacks of the Trojans’ trip to Utah in 2022, when current Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid piled up 16 catches for 234 yards.

And yet we didn’t shadow him until the last couple series.

Golden Trojan
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October 12, 2024 5:44 pm

3-3 after the Penn St game, 2 months ago we would not be surprised. What is a surprise is LR getting out coached and losing games late in the 4th with poor playing calling and clock management. Well now we get 5 games with the rest of the bottom half of the conference before ND. 8-4 here we come.

PN4SC
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October 12, 2024 6:07 pm
Reply to  Golden Trojan

At this moment, 8-4 seems like a pipe dream. There isn’t a team on the schedule that can’t beat us. Our team might pack it in, sort of like last year.

USC1988
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October 12, 2024 8:01 pm
Reply to  PN4SC

Had us 8-4 with hopefully good draw in some toilet bowl
But who knows could lose at Maryland next week because those are the things we do now
not winning at Wash
or beating ND
Nebby plays as dumb as we do so that will be a mess

Chris
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October 12, 2024 5:29 pm

I’m starting to lose faith in Riley. Not his ability to call plays, that’s silly, he knows what he’s doing there. But, I am losing faith in his culture. Good teams win close games, we just do not. The circumstances change from game to game, but the results do not. We shoot ourselves in the foot over and over. Eventually that is exactly who we are, we are a team that finds ways to lose. Once or twice is an outlier, over and over is an identity.

USC1988
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October 12, 2024 8:18 pm
Reply to  Chris

Not sure his play calling is all that anymore … supposed genius, 1st down at midfield only a FG to win, shitty poorly executed wasted down run play that lost yds, catch and fall down by Fair, his 1st catch , bad luck I suppose, but maybe Lemon keeps feet and rumbles for 1st down. Then horrible, rushed, under no duress throw by MM, who missed many, to wide open 6’6 Duce. Can’t blame shitty refs for that. LR was in control. And failed again. Was no doubt SC was losing in OT. Just matter of how and LR whiffed… Read more »

parcelman007
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October 12, 2024 5:17 pm

Will somebody please buy those refs a pair of glasses or a seeing eye dog.

illinoisusc
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October 12, 2024 5:28 pm
Reply to  parcelman007

Oh….the see very well……they just choose to protect the conference…..very much corporate……they want as many in the playoffs as possible. Unfortunately USC is used to being in a conference that forced us to beat the doormats by an extra 14 every game because of their lousy calls. No protection in the pac 12. We were the Ohio State of the pac 12 and were treated as Northwestern of the BIG. I remember an Illinois team that was in a big game against Mich in the day before replay. Five fumbles by Mich were never called by the ref in spite… Read more »

USC1988
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October 12, 2024 7:48 pm
Reply to  illinoisusc

Nebby fans told me you will regret joining this league … they take care of their old boys only. ND fans said we are living the reason they will never join the shitty Big10. See roughing passer called, make it mor obvious.
These Big10 hacks went 0-3 on one play, a late and helmet to helmet hit to MM while receiver interfered with.
Homered at home … nice

parcelman007
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October 12, 2024 4:48 pm

It’s going to be hard for USC to win this year with these Big 10 officials. They just don’t want USC to win.There was one clear pass interference on the sidelines near the end and there was an official standing right there and the play went uncalled. The next play there was another uncalled PI. Plus that roughing the passer was a joke. Quinten Joiner has carried the ball 7 times for 126 yards in the last 2 games. That’s 18 yards a carry. On the season, he’s 30 carries for 294 yards. That’s almost 10 yards a carry. But… Read more »

illinoisusc
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October 12, 2024 4:55 pm
Reply to  parcelman007

Oregon just got robbed of an interception. BIG refs believe in tradition…..as in Mich and Ohio State and Penn St. If you are going to beat them……you are going to have to really beat them into the ground.

illinoisusc
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October 12, 2024 5:00 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

Notice how with the fumble….now there is a review?

illinoisusc
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October 12, 2024 5:02 pm
Reply to  illinoisusc

That Oregon line is really quick.

illinoisusc
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October 12, 2024 5:32 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

If Oregon can hold up in the 4th being the quicker team….it’s going to be close.

parcelman007
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October 12, 2024 5:10 pm
Reply to  illinoisusc

Tradition doesn’t include SC

illinoisusc
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October 12, 2024 5:29 pm
Reply to  parcelman007

Not yet….we have to be in the top 20.

Steveg
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October 12, 2024 5:25 pm
Reply to  parcelman007

It could be his fumbles or the other guy Woody is grinding out yardage the hard way. Both are good no question. I just cannot figure out why the best tackle on the team is playing center during the biggest game of the year.

illinoisusc
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October 12, 2024 5:47 pm
Reply to  Steveg

Especially when you don’t have tackles.

UtahTrojan
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October 12, 2024 6:29 pm
Reply to  parcelman007

Yes we are getting horrible calls by the officials, but if we think that is why we lost then we are kidding ourselves.

USC1988
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October 12, 2024 7:51 pm
Reply to  UtahTrojan

Pete’s teams were always hosed … but won anyway but then he had great players because he went and got them

Jamaica
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October 12, 2024 4:33 pm

Riley was outcoached again and this time it was during halftime. Penn St came out with a plan and energy and our team came out listless not knowing how to keep a lead. We’ve seen it every time the team has a lead. No killer instinct no put the game away mentality. Seems it was so easy for Penn St to come back and take another win away from a team forgetting how to win.

USC1988
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October 12, 2024 7:53 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

Need some dawgs … have a few, Lemon, Ramsey, frosh kid with big pick, Woody, Joyner and few more not enough
QB needs some more dawg and keep it on RPO at crunch time

illinoisusc
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October 12, 2024 4:27 pm

My god……I missed a good portion due to a visit…..but I caught the last part.
This idiot we call a head coach lets the clock go down to 14 seconds without a time out and then calls several on defense. Then he calls a time out when the field goal is kicked well before the kick.
Get rid of this moron.

RialtoTrojan
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October 12, 2024 4:27 pm

I have a tradition of wearing a black USC shirt on Sunday after a loss to church. It goes back to the 1980s. Tomorrow I’m tearing the sleeves because USC Football is dead to me. USC HAS SNATCHED DEFEAT FROM THE JAWS OV VICTORY THREE TIMES THIS SEASON. (And several times under Riley) this isn’t getting any better. Riley needs to go

UtahTrojan
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October 12, 2024 6:32 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

I don’t feel any more sorry for LR than I did for CH. When you are the boss, you don’t learn from your mistakes and you keep friends on the payroll when you shouldn’t then you get everything you deserve.

Golden Trojan
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October 12, 2024 6:37 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

Well tonight he can go home to his lovely wife and kids, his PV mansion and look over his bank account. He will put his head on his pillow and think “I can’t believe they pay me this much to lose”. Maybe feel sorry for Clay Helton, he had a better record after 2 1/2 seasons and was paid a whole lot less.

USC1988
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October 12, 2024 7:55 pm
Reply to  Golden Trojan

and look at the TV and see the worst team in guttie history shutting out Minnesota in 3rd quarter

Steveg
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October 12, 2024 5:30 pm
Reply to  RialtoTrojan

I think if Moss had not overthrown Duce on that last series, USC wins and a lot of these posts would not be made. Riley isn’t blocking, passing, tackling, or in pass coverage. It may be that our talent level is not up to standards. Now the officiating against USC is blatantly obvious and I hope our AD calls the conference out on it.

UtahTrojan
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October 12, 2024 6:32 pm
Reply to  Steveg

The team mentality is on LR.

2manyyears
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October 12, 2024 4:23 pm

The man is totally incompetent in managing a game. It’s malfeasance. A 9th grade JV coach would not have let the clock run down the way asshat HC did and then call a poor play. How much is the buyout? Let’s start a gofundme. Fire this mother…… Jen Cohen.

UtahTrojan
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October 12, 2024 4:22 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

He might as well complete the transition to Helton and confess his love for his players

ATL D.D.S.
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October 12, 2024 4:19 pm

OUR F’ING HC IS A PRIMMA DONNA! WILL NOT LEARN FROM HIS STUPID IDEAS ABOUT TIME MANAGEMENT FAILURES!! HIRE LYNN AS HC

UtahTrojan
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October 12, 2024 4:21 pm
Reply to  ATL D.D.S.

I have my problems with Lynn as well. The whole game 44 should have been spied. How many times did we lose him for a big gain?

UtahTrojan
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October 12, 2024 4:19 pm

It needs to be over for Riley. Paid way too much for this crap. We could have stuck with Helton for these results.

UtahTrojan
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October 12, 2024 4:15 pm

Another pitiful finish. Just like the season

ATL D.D.S.
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October 12, 2024 4:14 pm

so dissapointing

ATL D.D.S.
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October 12, 2024 4:14 pm

again an un called PI

ATL D.D.S.
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October 12, 2024 4:16 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

I thought getting away from the PAC12 refs would be good,

ATL D.D.S.
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October 12, 2024 4:17 pm
Reply to  ATL D.D.S.

but i was so wrong

UtahTrojan
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October 12, 2024 4:13 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

We are going to get the calls from these officials for years, but the pass should’ve been better

Steveg
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October 12, 2024 4:14 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

They have gotten away with it all day. This game is lost.

UtahTrojan
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October 12, 2024 4:11 pm

So we are going into the sun?

alfa1
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October 12, 2024 4:38 pm
Reply to  UtahTrojan

Perhaps … but not to the CFB Playoffs

Steveg
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October 12, 2024 4:10 pm

I like our chances in OT with our goal line defense.

UtahTrojan
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October 12, 2024 4:09 pm

This game should have been over, but thanks to our quarterback whisperer we’re going into overtime

ATL D.D.S.
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October 12, 2024 4:09 pm

why does riley have a brain fart every week on time management?

Steveg
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October 12, 2024 4:11 pm
Reply to  ATL D.D.S.

I think if that pic had been a completion, he would have kicked the field goal and won with no time left.

UtahTrojan
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October 12, 2024 4:07 pm

Maybe Lincoln Riley just realized he has timeouts

ATL D.D.S.
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October 12, 2024 4:07 pm

Glad we saved our TOs for icing the passer.

UtahTrojan
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October 12, 2024 4:05 pm

Now he calls a timeout

UtahTrojan
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October 12, 2024 4:05 pm

Have to be f’n killing me

ATL D.D.S.
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October 12, 2024 4:04 pm

I hate OT

ATL D.D.S.
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ATL D.D.S.
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October 12, 2024 4:04 pm

Jeez Louise!

ATL D.D.S.
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ATL D.D.S.
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October 12, 2024 4:03 pm

Ah the mystery that is LR’s clock management!

UtahTrojan
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October 12, 2024 4:03 pm

What the hell is with the clock management?

ATL D.D.S.
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October 12, 2024 3:54 pm

Ashame that Ramsey couldn’t bring in that INT😰

UtahTrojan
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October 12, 2024 3:54 pm

This D has improved. But seriously sucked on this drive

UtahTrojan
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October 12, 2024 3:52 pm

Unbelievable

UtahTrojan
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October 12, 2024 3:55 pm
Reply to  Allen Wallace

Just two plays away from undefeated

ATL D.D.S.
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October 12, 2024 3:42 pm

Now we need a PSU turnover from our defense!!!!

Jamaica
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October 12, 2024 3:43 pm
Reply to  ATL D.D.S.

No penalties please to give them easy 1st downs!!!

Jamaica
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October 12, 2024 3:45 pm
Reply to  Jamaica

Assign a safety to shadow #44 from now on D’Anton.

John Weld
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October 12, 2024 3:39 pm

Nice drive and good mix of plays

RialtoTrojan
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October 12, 2024 3:36 pm

Maybe Riley has heard the talk about pounding the rock?

ATL D.D.S.
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October 12, 2024 3:29 pm

They keep running a wheel route to 44, Can’t we learnfrom our mistakes?

ATL D.D.S.
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October 12, 2024 3:27 pm

I guess if Gentry was available, he could spy 44 all afternoon. we should be able to devise something, He is their only game breaker.

UtahTrojan
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October 12, 2024 3:29 pm
Reply to  ATL D.D.S.

It’s not like he’s a little guy. The guy is huge.

ATL D.D.S.
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October 12, 2024 3:30 pm
Reply to  UtahTrojan

true dat

RialtoTrojan
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October 12, 2024 3:26 pm

Moss has been plowed down after almost every pass and never got a call. Referees ain’t playing equal at all.

UtahTrojan
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October 12, 2024 3:28 pm
Reply to  RialtoTrojan

We put ourselves in this position by coming out so flat. Stupid penalties again.

UtahTrojan
Noble Genius
UtahTrojan
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October 12, 2024 3:25 pm

How do we lose Warren on almost every play?