USC (5-5, 3-5 Big Ten) vs UCLA (4-6, 3-5 Big Ten)

Saturday, 7:30 p.m., Rose Bowl, NBC (Ch. 4)/570 AM, Line: USC by 5

Luca Evans and Dan Lovi (OC Register)

Notable injuries

UCLA: QUESTIONABLE: WR Rico Flores Jr. (undisclosed), OT Niki Prongos (undisclosed)

USC: QUESTIONABLE: EDGE Braylan Shelby (undisclosed)

What’s at stake for UCLA? It’s been a grueling first year for head coach DeShaun Foster, but a win against the Bruins’ biggest rival would all but erase the negativity that has clouded this season. The chance at a bowl game also dangles on the line, as UCLA needs to win both Saturday and a subsequent Nov. 30 game against Fresno State to clinch a berth. — Lovi

What’s at stake for USC? These Trojans, suddenly, have more program momentum than they’ve had in two months after a quarterback change, a victory over Nebraska and a resolution to the Julian Lewis-Husan Longstreet QB recruiting cycle that has hung over much of the season. They’re a win from bowl eligibility, and clinching it with a resounding win Saturday night at the Rose Bowl would leave Los Angeles buzzing and provide a welcome distraction from months of turmoil. — Evans

Who’s better? By the numbers, USC is far better on the offensive side of the ball and UCLA is marginally better on the defensive end. The Trojans average 30.3 points per game and are ranked 31st in the nation in total offense, while the Bruins average 18.8 points per game and rank near the bottom of college football in total offense (122nd). UCLA ranks 19 spots higher than USC in total defense, but the gap isn’t too significant, a difference of 18.4 yards allowed per game. UCLA has been better as of late, allowing 297.3 yards of total offense in its last three games, which ranks 20th in the country in that span. Against mutual opponents this season, UCLA is 2-4 and USC is 3-3. — Lovi

UCLA matchup to watch: UCLA’s run defense will go up against senior running back Woody Marks, who is coming off 146 rushing yards in USC’s victory over Nebraska last week. Marks ranks 18th in the country in total rushing yards (1,024) and has nine rushing touchdowns. UCLA is tied for 7th in the country in stopping the run, giving up 100.6 yards per game. The Bruins have had success shutting down prolific runners this season, including Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson, holding him to 49 yards on the ground, well below his fourth-ranked 132.8 yards per game average. — Lovi

USC matchup to watch: OK, if we want a real one here, USC’s secondary is at-last finally healthy and will need to contain quick hits from becoming big plays to limit the effectiveness of Bruins quarterback Ethan Garbers, who has quietly played some excellent football across his last four games. But for narrative’s sake, keep an eye on USC receiver Kyle Ford, who transferred back to USC after transferring to UCLA last year and said he was “more frustrated with my own team” while wearing a Bruins jersey at the Coliseum last year than he was with USC. — Evans

UCLA wins if: The Bruins lean on their experience at the quarterback position – Garbers has been in this spot before. He led UCLA to a 38-20 victory over USC last year, outdueling Trojans counterpart Caleb Williams, who went on to become the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Sophomore Jayden Maiava will start his second career game at USC and experience the crosstown rivalry for the first time. Garbers should play poised and Maiava might struggle under the spotlight.  — Lovi

USC wins if: Lincoln Riley keeps it simple, doesn’t put Maiava in position to make mistakes with 40-plus pass attempts, and hands the ball to Marks. UCLA’s run front is one of the best in the country, sure. Marks has gone up against a few of those in the Big Ten, already, and he has shown he’s more than up for the task. A healthy mix of play-action in there and the Trojans will skip away from the Rose Bowl. — Evans

Prediction: UCLA 28, USC 24. Throw out the win-loss record when these teams play each other. It just so happens they have similar records this year, but USC’s season could be viewed as more of a disappointment because expectations were higher. UCLA has looked focused at practice, while simultaneously exuding a relaxed demeanor. Garbers’ experience in the big game should factor heavily, giving UCLA an opportunity to come away with the home win. — Lovi

Prediction: USC 38, UCLA 20. Yep – let’s go with the exact score of 2023’s matchup, only flipped. The Bruins have some positive momentum and plenty of desperation themselves, but USC has the more dynamic quarterback, more dynamic running game and a highly competitive defensive coordinator, D’Anton Lynn, who popped over from across town. — Evans

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