Jim Alexander: I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say that Saturday’s USC-Oregon game in Eugene is the most important of the season for both sides, by far. Oregon is No. 7 in the latest College Football Playoff jockeying for position, USC is No. 15, and there’s a good chance the winner moves into the top 12 and the loser falls out of it. And if it’s the Trojans who lose, they’re done regardless of what happens the following week against UCLA. (Oregon gets Washington next week in Seattle.)

And I guess for these teams – and a lot of others going into the final weeks who are maybe/kinda/sorta on the bubble – the overall expectations have changed dramatically from what they used to be. And Mirjam, I’m interested in your take on this: If your team, whoever it is, doesn’t make the playoff field, is the season automatically a failure? Or does it depend on what was expected at the start?

Mirjam Swanson: Might be the most important game left this regular season, period.

There’s some jockeying happening in the SEC, but without the heightened in-or-out stakes of this showdown in Eugene – wait, give me a second.

So that shouldn’t affect the game, which I’ve heard people refer to as something akin to a “wild-card” matchup, and it does feel like that. Win and you’re in – or almost in.

The Ducks are mighty tough to beat at home, 31-2 over the past five seasons. If USC can do it, Lincoln Riley’s crew definitely deserves a spot in the CFP.

I’ve liked, though, how Riley has been embracing this stretch of the season, talking up the notion of a big, important matchup as not Just Another Game, but as moments that mean a lot, that should be enjoyed for that.

Riley has seemed really to like this group despite some of its deficiencies, to believe in it, and the group has felt different, too. Even coming out for every home game in matching USC warmups instead of treating those entrances into the Coliseum as NBA-esque fashion fit checks said something about this squad and its approach.

Riley is enjoying being able to talk his talk after a couple of disappointing years, this week clapping back at the College Game Day crew: “These are all the same people that thought we were going to suck.”

Of course, in 2023 Riley bristled at outside expectations being too high: “We don’t come in every single week talking about winning a national championship, going to the playoffs. I don’t know where that narrative starts. If you let the outside set expectations, you’re always being measured up against that …”

But if the nation’s third-highest-paid coach can steer the Trojans into the 12-team playoff tournament, he’ll be able to shut up even his most vocal critics … for a minute. But if he doesn’t, then he can go back to complaining about the people complaining about the Trojans underachieving.

Definitely a big game. Now if they can just avoid another of their ill-timed ineligible man downfield penalties.

Jim: It’s nice to see that USC has its swagger back, but I’m going to take the 30,000-foot view here. These teams moved into the Big Ten at the same time. One moved quickly into the league’s top tier – remember, Oregon won the Big Ten championship game last year, beating Penn State – and the other found itself a mid-level team in an 18-team conference. This is USC’s chance to ascend to, or at least get closer to, that top tier of the Big Ten.

And consider that both teams slogged their way to victories over Iowa, through inclement weather, in back-to-back weeks. Oregon did so at Iowa. The Trojans rallied at home through a rainstorm.

I’m still not ready to treat these teams as equals, though. Oregon has been dominant, both in the Pac-12 and now in the Big Ten. If this game were in the Coliseum, it might be a more even fight, but Oregon is 15-1 in conference games since joining the league, as Substack columnist John Canzano noted. USC is 6-1 this year after going 4-5 last year, but even with its swagger, is it ready to take down the tallest tree in the forest? I don’t think so. I think Oregon will win easily.

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