‘It’s a one-game season right now’: USC vs. Oregon four things to watch
Under Pete Carroll, USC famously had “Tell The Truth Mondays.” The weekly sessions were intended for unvarnished recaps of the previous weekend’s game that helped the team process the highs and lows of each performance.
For Lincoln Riley’s Trojans, that tradition is turning into Quickly Move On Mondays.
Linebacker Mason Cobb said this week the Trojans didn’t watch film of USC’s loss to Washington. Last month, safety Calen Bullock said he didn’t watch the final drive against Utah when the Trojans gave up a game-winning field goal.
The pattern of denial has forced USC to finally confront an uncomfortable truth: The Trojans are in a must-win situation against No. 6 Oregon to keep their slim Pac-12 championship hopes alive.
“It’s a one-game season right now,” quarterback Caleb Williams said.
Riley said it’s rare he de-emphasizes film study after a game, but acknowledged this situation fit the bill. With a road game against a top-10 opponent looming after Riley fired defensive coordinator Alex Grinch and promoted defensive line coach Shaun Nua and inside linebackers coach Brian Odom to co-interim coordinator positions, there felt like more pressing needs than parsing each mistake in a game which the Trojans gave up a Riley-era record 572 yards.
“The only goal right now is getting this team, getting our defense, ready to play this week as well as we possibly can,” said Riley, who added coaches still spent their typical time breaking down the film. “That’s the only goal, the only focus. We went forward with that mindset.”
The matchup demands USC’s full attention. Led by Heisman-contending quarterback Bo Nix, the Ducks are undefeated at home. USC needs to win its final two games and hope for losses from two-loss teams like Utah, which plays first-place Washington on Saturday, Oregon State and Arizona, to stay in the hunt for a Pac-12 championship game appearance.
Here are four things to watch when USC (7-3, 5-2) takes on the Ducks (8-1, 5-1 Pac-12) at Autzen Stadium on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. (Fox):
Caleb Williams navigates uncharted territory
Lincoln Riley with QB Caleb Williams during the disappointing 52-42 loss to #5 Washington at the Coliseum on Nov. 4. (Gina Ferazzi / LAT)
Williams can make touchdowns out of nothing, but even the Heisman Trophy winner can’t make a national championship out of this.
The realization that Williams will go a third season without a College Football Playoff appearance finally set in after USC’s loss to Washington. He tried to maintain that a two-loss team might have had a chance in this competitive college football season, but a third loss surely ended all national championship chances.
Williams has never been out of the championship conversation like this, he acknowledged, even in high school. The unfamiliar situation has tested Williams as a leader, he said. He confided in people closest to him, including Riley, and vowed to stay steady.
“Something that I’ve said to the whole group, with the coaches around, before the season started is, I want to be the same person every single day,” Williams said.
Teammates have seen Williams live up to that promise amid the swings of the season.
“Caleb’s one of those dudes, he just hates losing, but [I] never question one doubt when the game starts, he’s ready to go,” center Justin Dedich said. “He’s an ultra-competitor.”
Williams leads the country in passing touchdowns with 28 and has the most rushing touchdowns in the Pac-12 with 10, but his ball security has emerged as a concern. The junior has lost fumbles on sacks in consecutive games. Williams’ fumble against Washington was especially costly as it allowed the Huskies to set up in the red zone and score immediately before halftime to take a seven-point lead. That mistake “can’t happen,” Riley said Thursday.
The Trojans lost just two fumbles as a team last year, including one by Williams in the Pac-12 championship game against Utah. The other was a muffed onside kick against Cal. This season, USC has fumbled 20 times and lost eight.
What’s the rush?
It used to be USC’s lone defensive strength. Now the pass rush has been reduced to a trickle. After averaging 3.7 sacks in the first six games, USC had just two in the last month as the Trojans have lost three of their last four games.
“That’s on me,” Nua said. “I’ve gotta get them going and get them to the quarterback faster.”
Wary of Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and his dynamic receivers, the Trojans often rushed just three defenders against the Huskies with hopes of taking away the deep passing game. The strategy was fruitless. Penix was sacked once but had no problem throwing for 256 yards and two touchdowns on 22-of-30 passing while the running game carried the Huskies to victory.
After nine sacks combined in the first five games, edge rushers Jamil Muhammad and Solomon Byrd have been quiet with just two in the last five weeks. They struggled against the Huskies — who are third in the country in sacks allowed with 0.67 a game — and the task will only get more difficult this week. The Ducks are even better at 0.44 sacks allowed per game, which ranks second nationally.
Major mismatch
USC just allowed 316 rushing yards to a pass-first offense. What the Trojans do against Oregon could get uglier.
USC’s Pac-12-worst rushing defense has its toughest task of the season against Oregon’s conference-best rushing attack. The Ducks lead the Pac-12 and rank 10th nationally with 208.1 rushing yards per game. They are the only team in the country to average more than six yards per carry, breaking off 6.33 yards per attempt.
Running back Bucky Irving leads the Ducks with 91.2 rushing yards per game with nine touchdowns, which is tied with Jordan James for the team lead. Oregon is the only FBS team to have two running backs with at least nine rushing touchdowns.
Trojans take on enemy territory
I don’t know what strength and conditioning is lacking in routine or technique, but stamina needs improvement.
Tomorrow I wonder if we’ll see more substitution in game. People had a way of disappearing under Grinch.
That was obvious since so many of the defensive portal transfers never made it onto the field regularly. If we play solid on D tomorrow, we have a chance for the upset.
That’s optimistic. SC has plenty of talent on defense but combined with misguided coaching. Against Penix, there were several plays where SC had only three down linemen and other eight dropped back yielding 8-10 yards … suicidal giving a QB like Penix zero pressure to find receivers in the deep zone coverage. I’d like to 4 down linemen always, plus a LB blitz a la Cushing/Matthews/Maualuga to make the QB move and disrupt his ability to find receivers. The talent is there, the coaching and schemes are not.
Tackling is another coaching failure, hitting runner high does little.
All this doom and gloom over the state of USC football and LR. I am sure LR like the rest of us didn’t expect Grinch to not listen to his assistants and implode like he did this season. I’m sure he expected the defense to be passable this season. If it had been we would have beat Utah and Washington setting up a show down in Eugene. So we get a new DC and SC coaches, recruiting improves and away we go. Next year will be tough going for sure 5 losses are very likely. But suppose Nelson is the… Read more »
We have a young coach who knows how to win and is committed to being with us and is still learning and growing as a coach and as a person.
This is so much better than anything we went through in the Helton years or the Hackett years.
USC got a flip today. 2024 OT Justin Tauanuu decommited from Stanford and committed to USC.
We don’t need 285 lbs 3* OT. We need 300+ lbs 5* OT.
I hear ya GT, I’m just sharing the news.
We can have him bulk up and get muscle so not a bad pickup IMO.
The coaching staff had these past few days to build up the defensive players confidence in what they are facing up in Eugene. They should be prepared for a physical game as now the book on playing USC is being physical. Well HC Dan Lanning came from a program that was very physical, Georgia. Their game plan has to be wear out the Trojans to where they will give up. Our only hope is CW has a great game, the offense stays in the game matching the ducks’ scores and not make mistakes. The hope here is the game is… Read more »
Not a likely what if, but I’ll ask it anyway. What if we somehow made magic happen and win the next two weeks? Would Riley, who is a glass half full guy, decide to run with the guys we have. Is as interim DC’s? What if the defense looks competent?
I want a big name hire. There are enough out there, let’s get one. But I can totally see Riley holding this staff together if we manage to win the next two games.
LOL better chance of Pete being the next DC than winning out
We will beat the gutties. This week is a loooooong shot.
Wow. Just wow. Grinch had a rep for playing favorites and was obviously very unpopular with the players. Other coaches still are.
Obvious huge issues with this USC team. Riley has some big clean-up and reformation work to do at USC, to say the least.
Here’s edge rusher Jamil Muhammad on Twitter:
“Grinch is a goner. Now we need to make sure Bennie Wylie gets fired. You can feel the progress being made at USC… :-)”
A Red Shirt Senior can make that public statement. Hope it doesn’t limit his playing time the rest of the way. Guess it’s not JUST the untrained eye that sees Wylie needs to go!
The S&C at USC has fallen off as guys are gassed in the 4th. Even with a lot of rotations. There were no subs the entire game on the O line against WA yet there were 10 players got PT on the D line. Why would conditioning show up with all those rotations going on.
When has any team hired a stregth coach and the reaction was “the last guy was better.”
When has a team replaced the worst DC in its over 100 years history and the reaction was “the last guy was better”?
Gassed lol … Grinch’s D gave up 3 play TD drives. Only players winded in SC games are CW from running around all night and the opposing place kicker.
What was notable was the comment that the position coaches had no input as to who would start or about playing time. The playing of favorites showed as we watched who Grinch started or gave PT to. Funny how everyone raved about Wylie when he was hired. It seems USC has been looking for a good DC for a long long time, will the next one be the one? One thing I differ on is that LR is said to not know about defenses. How could he have such a successful offense without knowing how to beat defensive schemes. It… Read more »
That wasnt his tweet but he liked a tweet where that was said. Either way, not a good look at all. Riley might have to pull a Brian Kelly and get rid of everyone.
So much for the big culture change supposedly installed by LR. I agree with Rock2112. Total BS. The program’s got more holes in it right now than a large slice of Swiss cheese, which is why USC seems lucky to be 7-3. There are plenty of other negative tidbits from players that I could have noted, but figured they had all been circulated elsewhere in one form or another. Hopefully, LR has the guts to bring in someone who can throw his weight around, recruit who he wants for his system, decide on his staff, and let LR focus on… Read more »
Pretty clear, as the saying goes, Grinch had “lost the locker room”. When that happens the coach has to go immediately. A tough as nails DC who brings his S/C coach and staff is needed for a fresh start if nothing else. Accountability and discipline seems lost at least on the defensive side. Are we hearing disgruntled comments on the offense?
Allen, Thanks for posting. I totally agree with your post below that the SC program now has more holes than swiss cheese. Funny! Seems obvious LR will need to change his approach to being a HC quite significantly. The question is: will he? If the team goes 0-2 and finishes 7-5 and then Caleb does not play in the crap bowl we get, he will finish 7-6 with a record of 7-8 for his last 15 games. And, unless major changes are made, it will not improve next year.
We’ve already seen LR’s latest off-season approach to fixing glaring problems within his program and he fell flat on his face. Now, only the most hard-core Trojan loyalists even give USC a shot at beating ORE, assuming we play a perfect game — all this with mud all over the program’s face, a quickly realigned defensive staff, and players chirping all over the place. Even Eric Gentry came out publicly and directly contradicted LR’s self-serving version of his recovery. Now the Trojans have more issues to deal with than many of us ever suspected existed within the underbelly of USC… Read more »
Ugh … this mess. Expected 10-2 but a CCG and maybe a Rose Bowl. No doubt another Heisman. Not this cluster F of wild wins vs the worst Pac teams and playing spoiler by mid season. Losing out is very possible. Oregon lol will be a bloodbath. UCLA,in CW final game, seems like a win but Utah and Udub did too and we watched those ugly fold jobs. The bowl game lol get ready for a Kiffin/Hackett type Sun Bowl quit job. Next year.A good team might go 8-4 vs that schedule. An average team, 6-6. A mess like this… Read more »
I just reviewed the USC roster for next year position by position…..IMO USC will do just fine as long as…..Riley is a little less greedy and matures……will he?……hires a special teams coach ……will he?…….pushes for some transfer help in the D line and LB and safety…..and gets a DC that knows what he is doing……will he?……which means the other defensive coaches are gone. Also need improvement with recruiting. If this game against Oregon were being played in 4 weeks….it could be close….but it’s not…..Riley is Riley…..its pretend for a few plays you are the 1984 SF 49’ers and then revert… Read more »
What I saw in the first two possessions against WA confirmed Riley can play a balanced offense. You are right though, then they revert to schoolyard ball. I can see Caleb having to run around some as the line fails him, but those short passes are being ignored to much.
Yep. Washington D looked gassed in the first quarter.
The offense has been up and down, but good enough to win every game but one. I’m way more interested in what personnel changes we see on defense. I hope we see Bear, Barrs, and Sullivan play together. Imagine using big guys on the line? We can rotate that rush end spot. At the very least play Bear and Barrs. Also, time to sit Shaw. We appreciate the effort, but we need someone who can run back there. If our defense goes from terrible to just slightly below average, we’re in the game. If we can play at average, with… Read more »
What? Only 38 from the best in college football? I can see it I guess if Caleb is struggling against the Oregon defense and the crowd noise. I would prefer 49 though.
Running the ball. What a novel idea. Hey LR. Do you think you could draw up a student body right just for old times sake?
Student Body Right. What a fantastic, catchy college football play description that embodied USC football for so many years… Here’s some Wiki info on it that I had never heard before and found interesting: The origins of the play date to the tenure of John McKay as head coach of the University of Southern California Trojans during the mid-1960s. The popular explanation for the nickname is that in quarters during which USC was headed toward the end zone which contained student seating, the tailback would appear to be running toward the student section at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, where USC played its home games, before cutting… Read more »
As it says, Student Body Right only works if your O Line is bigger and stronger than the defense. USC is not.
When I played Pop Warner in my first year as our 72-pound running back, we called the SBR play 27 Power.
It’s crazy how you suddenly made me think of that play call for the first time in what seems like forever. I ended up wearing #27 in high school. Maybe I was channeling my favorite play and didn’t even know it?
Funny how some things, even people, don’t change much. Two of my blockers from that Pee Wee team were also my blockers in high school, and one played at Idaho for a bit.
This team is NOT a running team. It is a team whose O is “run through” the QB. That does not mean we ignore the run. UW is a prime example – their O is structured very similarly, but when our D was designed to drop 8 and rush 3, they ran the ball. Same with us, we should do what works. LR has combined both as needed. And, and I do not think it matters. I doubt we will be able to run effectively, forcing the game into Caleb’s hands.
If we cannot run on Whoregon then the ball will go into Calebs hands to carry the offense again. I really enjoy watching Lloyd break tackles when he has just a small hole to run through, then he accelerates. Riley needs to work with what the ducks give him. Expect a lot of blitz.
You hit the nail on the head. Our running attack must be featured, not abandoned Saturday for any chance at an upset or simply survive with some dignity. Slow the game down. Get us in a play action advantage, not a CW drop back, run, play long ball Houdini. CW is the most adaptive, transformative player we’ve seen in college football in the last couple of years. Perhaps ever. Let’s hope our coaching staff can be as well.
I would like to see USC come out in their opening drive the same way they came out against WA. They were balanced, moved down the field, had WA on their heels not knowing what was coming next. Then continue that throughout the game, using the run to open the passing game, and vice versa. Then throw the entire playbook at them, tons of stuff nobody has ever seen before.
Agree. Even if we don’t get outta there with a W, it’s a launching point for hopefully the team, but most importantly LR.