Roundtable: Will USC beat Utah? When did Caleb Williams clinch the Heisman?
Caleb Williams gets a hug from OL Brett Neilon after the Trojans’ win over Notre Dame on Saturday. (Mark J. Terrill / AP)
What has changed since USC’s loss to Utah?
Ryan Kartje: The Trojans’ lone defeat under Lincoln Riley happened just last month, but it feels like a lifetime ago considering the confidence USC is playing with right now. Players have said that loss — and the heart-wrenching scene after — changed them as a team, and it’s hard to dispute that given what we’ve seen since. Most importantly, a defense that was torched in Salt Lake City has taken a significant step forward, even holding Notre Dame to under 100 yards rushing last week. Caleb Williams is somehow playing even better right now than he was in October, when he threw for 381 yards and five touchdowns.
And this time, he’ll presumably have a healthy Jordan Addison at his disposal. This is a different USC team than the one that left Utah heartbroken, one that presumably wouldn’t leave itself in position for a bad penalty or two to impact the final outcome.
Thuc Nhi Nguyen: From a personnel standpoint, both teams are without their top running backs as Travis Dye suffered a season-ending injury against Colorado and Utah’s Tavion Thomas announced after the loss to Oregon that a toe injury will end his Utah career. But the biggest change for the Trojans is their defense has finally entered the chat. Along with just 90 rushing yards allowed, USC limited — if you can call it that — Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer to 98 receiving yards with just five yards after the catch. Dalton Kincaid racked up 105 of his 234 receiving yards after the catch. I’ll also add that the atmosphere was electric in Salt Lake City and a neutral site should help USC.
J. Brady McCollough: That night in Salt Lake City, under the heat of a tight deadline and having just seen tight end Dalton Kincaid send USC’s undefeated season up in flames, I wrote that the Trojans were not playoff material because of their horrendous defense. USC’s much-maligned unit continued to flail around in the wind for weeks after, but in the two biggest games of the season, they made plays when they had to to keep this playoff dream afloat. We’ll find out against this same Utah team whether Alex Grinch’s group has actually improved since Oct. 15. But it sure seems like they’ve found their footing at the right time.
Ben Bolch: I think the word is swagger. USC just plays like it knows it’s going to win now, even if its defense gives up some points. The Trojans know they will find a way behind Caleb Williams and this generational offense.
Should USC be a lock for the College Football Playoff semifinals win or lose?
Bolch: With apologies to Lee Corso, not so fast, my friends. If everybody agrees that Michigan has the best win of the college football season with that resounding triumph over Ohio State, then let’s give the Buckeyes credit for being in position to boost the Wolverines’ standing. In my mind, if the Trojans stumble Friday, one-loss Ohio State should be in the CFP over a team that would have lost twice to Utah.
McCollough: I will credit the great Dan Wetzel of Yahoo! Sports with this thought, which he presented in a column this week: Georgia, Michigan, TCU and USC should be locked into the playoff, and this championship weekend only counting for seeding. His reasoning, which I agree with, is that if these are the top four after 13 weeks and the two teams behind them in the rankings (presumably Ohio State and Alabama) are not playing this weekend and therefore can’t win their way in, the field should be set. Do I think the selection committee would choose 11-2 USC that is not the Pac-12 champion over 11-1 Ohio State? It’s iffy, but it may depend on how USC loses in that scenario. If it’s another heartbreaking loss to the Utes in the final minutes, there’s definitely an argument the Trojans performed better in the biggest game of their season than Ohio State did in getting throttled at home by Michigan, 45-23. That said, my gut says USC would be out of the playoff if it loses Friday.
Kartje: All due respect to that line of thinking, but I firmly believe a second defeat to Utah should disqualify USC from the playoff conversation. I’d be absolutely gobsmacked if it worked out any other way. Why have the conference title games if we’re conceding that they’re only for CFP seeding? Ohio State made it to the final game of its regular season without dropping a single game, then lost to a much better team than Utah. Both teams beat Notre Dame. Is a win over UCLA better than a win over Penn State? I certainly don’t think so.
All of those hypotheticals aside, none of this matters if USC beats Utah and wins the Pac-12 title. Which it will.
When was Caleb Williams’ Heisman moment? When do you think the USC quarterback clinched college football’s biggest prize?
Kartje: How much time do you have? Caleb Williams has been dealing out Heisman worthy moments all season, to the point that they’ve become routine. Most will probably remember the Notre Dame win as the day he clinched the award, and how could anyone blame them? It was a dazzling summary of the skills Williams has shown us again and again all season — the stunning escapes, the tight-window throws, the poise in the pocket. But when I look back at this season, I’ll think of the jaw-dropping displays leading up to his coronation last Saturday. Threading the needle for a game-winning touchdown in the final minute against Oregon State. Flipping an Arizona State pass rusher over his shoulder. A record 503 yards against UCLA. He’d done enough to win the eighth Heisman in USC history, even before he darted, danced and dazzled his way to a win over Notre Dame.
Bolch: You mean besides when he struck the pose against Notre Dame? Williams was going to be hard to beat after his masterful showing against UCLA, but he solidified it a week later with another strong performance on the same day that Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud went kerplunk in a loss to Michigan.
McCollough: He clinched when Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud, the presumed front-runner most of the season, lost by 22 points to Michigan on his home field Saturday. With Stroud out of the way, it was Williams’ to win, barring an epic collapse. He delivered his Heisman moment on that insane scramble and run against the Fighting Irish, when he looked like Reggie Bush as a quarterback.
Who will win the Utah-USC game?
Bolch: The Utes are as tough as they come and nobody gets more out of what he has to work with than Kyle Whittingham. But USC is playing like a team of destiny and has the bonus of wanting to avenge its only loss on the way to the CFP. That’s too much going in the Trojans’ favor for them to lose twice to the same team.
Kartje: The time for doubting these Trojans is over. The stakes are sky-high. The revenge factor is real. USC wouldn’t have it any other way. Riley will be lifting the Pac-12 championship trophy soon enough.
McCollough: I’ve learned my lesson after picking the Trojans to lose to UCLA and Notre Dame. Caleb Williams is going to be too much for the Utes to handle on a neutral field, and USC will make its first trip to the College Football Playoff.
Nguyen: Caleb Williams was holding back tears after USC’s loss to Utah and I find it hard to pick against him and the extra-motivated Trojans in this rematch.
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