Lincoln Riley still believes USC can win a Pac-12 football title. How do the Trojans get there?
Examining the teams left on the Trojans’ conference schedule and their potential path to Vegas
Jaylin Smith (19) celebrates with S Bryson Shaw (27) after breaking up late two-point conversion against CAL, preserving USC’s 50-49 comeback victory in Berkeley, Calif., Sat, Oct. 28, 2023. (AP/Jed Jacobsohn)
Luca Evans (OC Register) — For the fine line that USC football coach Lincoln Riley has preached over the last couple of weeks after losses – if Eric Gentry’s finger goes up another quarter of an inch to block a late Utah kick, if one or two third-quarter plays go the Trojans’ way against Notre Dame – the flip side is true in a stretch of confounding, pulling-hair-out wins that have hardly felt like victories.
“I think we let some of the appreciation and fun out of winning get away there in the middle,” Riley said on Thursday.
If Colorado hadn’t operated with such poor clock management in a late-September comeback against USC, perhaps the Trojans would be 6-3.
If Arizona had converted a two-point try in their back-and-forth overtime battle with USC, perhaps the Trojans would be 5-4.
If California, most recently, had simply opted to kick an extra point with clock running low and head to overtime on Saturday afternoon, perhaps the Trojans would be 4-5.
But for all the glaring defensive errors that have resulted in back-and-forth shootouts, the pressure too often on Caleb Williams having to reach for his holster and hit his mark, this USC team is nothing if not resilient. Battle-tested. They’ve put themselves in unenviable positions – down 17-0 to Arizona, down 28-17 at half to California – to teams on paper less talented, but have found a couple heroes and enough big plays to finish games.
Thus, they find themselves at 7-2, a record that tells laughably little of the story of this season and yet doesn’t lie. Second, firmly, in the Pac-12, with a key game against Washington coming up next. And with no hopes of a national title, no hopes of a College Football Playoff, a conference championship for the first time since 2017 is a decent enough morsel left on the plate.
“I believe this team can win this league,” Riley said postgame Saturday. “Hell yeah, I do. Hell yeah, I do. I know we can.”
Odds seem long, however, with the final teams on USC’s schedule being tough Pac-12 teams: Washington (home), Oregon (away) and UCLA (home). Let’s break down the teams left vying for a trip to Vegas and the Trojans’ potential path.
Washington (8-0, 5-0 in Pac-12)
Opponents remaining: USC, Utah, Oregon State, Washington State
Washington has the benefit of a major win over Oregon on its schedule, but hasn’t exactly inspired in scuffling against their last two Pac-12 opponents: their vaunted offense sputtered against Arizona State in a 15-7 win (USC beat the Sun Devils 42-28), and the Huskies were tested Saturday by a rapidly-improving Stanford team in a 42-33 win (USC beat the Cardinals 56-10).
What would help USC’s odds: They’d need to first outgun Washington on Nov. 4 in a game at USC that may total approximately 2,546 points, and hope Utah’s defense could stifle Washington the following week to give the Huskies two conference losses. Washington will be favored to beat Oregon State and Washington State to close out the year, but neither game is automatic.
Oregon (7-1, 4-1 in Pac-12)
Opponents remaining: Cal, USC, Arizona State, Oregon State
The Ducks lost 36-33 to Washington in a game Dan Lanning almost certainly wants back, but Oregon has a clearer shot to Vegas than any team in the Pac-12. They’ll be the toughest team remaining for USC, just drubbing Utah 35-6 the week after the Trojans fell, and have a relatively easy path remaining with Cal, Arizona State and Oregon State.
What would help USC’s odds: Prayer that they, or someone, could knock off Oregon and give the Ducks two conference losses.
UCLA (6-2, 3-2 in Pac-12)
Opponents remaining: Arizona, Arizona State, USC, Cal
An elite defensive unit will keep the Bruins in the game against most anyone, but UCLA already has two conference losses — Utah and Oregon State — before taking on a pesky Arizona team that nearly knocked off USC and is coming off back-to-back wins over Washington State and Oregon State. Possible, but unlikely, that UCLA could beat both Arizona and USC to preserve their Pac-12 record.
What would help USC’s odds: If the Wildcats’ Noah Fifita goes nuclear next Saturday.
Oregon State, Utah and Arizona are also all 3-2 in the Pac-12, but it’s difficult to see any running the table from here. Oregon State faces both Washington and Oregon, and Utah is officially down Cam Rising for the year; Arizona has a favorable schedule, but will be relying on a freshman quarterback in Fifita.
It’s not impossible to see USC taking two of its next three games and still making the championship game, or getting in by winning all three if Caleb Williams goes god mode.
“This team’s good,” Riley said Saturday, “is definitely good enough to beat anybody.”
TrojanDailyBlog members — We always encourage you to add factual information, insight, divergent opinions, or new topics to the TDB that don’t necessarily pertain to any particular moderator post or member comment.
