We’re still too far from Thanksgiving to smell the turkey cooking. It won’t be long, though.

Baylor coach Dave Aranda walks the sideline during a game against Kansas on Sept. 18. (Orlin Wagner / AP)

MOVING UP: Dave Aranda, Baylor head coach: There’s been a shakeup at the top since our previous list from early October when Aranda made his first appearance. This may not be a projected winner that excites the average USC fan, and, if you’re disappointed Aranda is here instead of James Franklin, Luke Fickell or Matt Campbell, treat this as just that — a projection.

It should take more than one good season to become USC’s head coach, but Aranda’s impressive track record as a defensive coordinator at Wisconsin and Louisiana State deserves weight too. Aranda’s unit at LSU was a vital part of the 2019 national championship run, and, with Ed Orgeron now on his way out, it’s hard not to shift even more credit Aranda’s way.

That makes Aranda an appealing candidate in Baton Rouge, too, but there’s reason to believe USC could get him to Los Angeles. USC athletic director Mike Bohn pursued Aranda to be the Trojans’ defensive coordinator after 2019 and nearly had him signed before Baylor swooped in. Think Bohn hasn’t been paying attention to what Baylor is doing this year?

Unlike other top names in the search, Aranda has strong local ties and could be looking to come home. The son of Mexican immigrants, he grew up in Redlands and played football at Cal Lutheran in Thousand Oaks, where he also got his start as a college coach.

Cincinnati coach Luke Fickell looks on against Navy on Oct. 23. (Julio Cortez / AP)

Luke Fickell, Cincinnati head coach: I went to Cincinnati in late September to learn more about Fickell and assess whether he would be able to uproot his wife and six kids from their happy Ohio rhythms to step into the adventure of a lifetime in Los Angeles. I left feeling it was unlikely — read the profile to understand why — but still possible because Fickell’s wife, mother and coaching mentors did not slam the door on USC.

That said, due to the connection between Fickell and Bohn, who hired him at Cincinnati, he’s going to be perceived as a serious candidate up until the moment Bohn says it’s someone else.

USC fans who still have their heart set on Fickell should be rooting for No. 2 Cincinnati to miss the College Football Playoff, sending Fickell the message he needs to move to a major program to win the big prize. That still wouldn’t guarantee he would say yes to USC, though.

MOVING DOWN: James Franklin, Penn State head coach: Since the search began, Franklin sat at the top of our list, and he is still considered the favorite to land the USC job by many observers. But after Penn State’s humiliating defeat to Illinois as a 24-point favorite last Saturday, leader of the Nittany Lions has lost some of his luster.

This week I wrote an analysis of why — especially given the fresh doubt about his on-field coaching acumen — Franklin may not be worth the risk for USC.

Any vetting of Franklin by Bohn and the USC administration should include a thorough review of Franklin’s handling of a gang rape by four Vanderbilt football players while Franklin was coach in 2013. There are still many questions, most of which are probably unanswerable. Plus, Franklin would be the most expensive of the candidates, and that was the case before it came out this week he added big-gun Jimmy Sexton as his agent.

My gut says USC has legitimate reasons to cool on Franklin. We’ll see.

Matt Campbell, Iowa State head coach: The Cyclones began the season ranked No. 7 but have lost to Iowa and Baylor. Here’s the thing, though: The shine should not come off Campbell at all. What he’s accomplished in Ames is so impressive a disappointing start does not remotely overshadow it.

Campbell’s revival of Iowa State is the closest thing we’ve seen to the miracle Bill Snyder worked at Kansas State. Snyder was much older than Campbell and decided to stay in Manhattan, and now he has a stadium named after him. Campbell could do the same in Ames. Only he knows how much of an itch he has to coach at a school where the expectation is competing for a national championship.

Campbell can flat-out coach, and USC should want him. But can it get him?

Oregon State coach Jonathan Smith talks on his headset against Washington on Oct. 2. (Amanda Loman / AP)

NEW TO THE HEAT CHECK: Jonathan Smith, Oregon State head coach: Hardly anybody noticed during the pandemic-plagued 2020 season when Oregon State beat rival Oregon. Many more people are picking up on how good of a coach Smith is this year with the Beavers 5-2 overall, 3-1 in the Pac-12, and challenging the Ducks in the North division. Washington’s best offenses under Chris Petersen featured Smith holding the controls as offensive coordinator. He was born in Pasadena and is a Glendora High School grad.

NEW TO THE HEAT CHECK: Dave Clawson, Wake Forest head coach: Clawson has the Demon Deacons 7-0 in his eighth season in Winston-Salem. He’s shown he can build a program from the ground up, and he’s done it at a private school with higher admissions standards than most of his competitors in the ACC. Clawson isn’t exactly going to fire up the faithful, though.

MOVING UP: PJ Fleck, Minnesota head coach: I don’t see Bohn deciding it’s USC’s turn to “row the boat” with the energetic Fleck, but the Golden Gophers have recovered nicely from their upset loss to Bowling Green with three consecutive wins and are in the mix for the Big Ten West crown once again.

NEW TO THE HEAT CHECK: Raheem Morris, Rams defensive coordinator: Morris got his start coaching college but has been in the NFL for most of the last two decades. There’s been some buzz about Morris, who was head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2009-11, but I find it highly unlikely Bohn ends up hiring from the professional ranks for what may be his one shot to get this right.

Mark Stoops, Kentucky head coach: The Wildcats are 6-1 and there’s a clear path to 11-1 and a New Year’s Six bowl game. That may be Stoops’ ceiling at Kentucky, but he does make $5 million per year to coach a school with zero expectations of winning the conference. That’s cushy.