No. 21 IOWA (6-3 overall, 4-2 Big Ten) at No. 17 USC (7-2, 5-1)

12:30 p.m. Saturday, L.A. Coliseum,  Big Ten Network/ESPN LA 710

Line: USC by 6.5

Haley Sawyer (OC Register) / Ryan Kartje (LA Times)  —  NOTABLE INJURIES

USC: OUT: CB Prophet Brown (undisclosed), RB Eli Sanders (knee), CB Chasen Johnson (knee); QUESTIONABLE: CB DJ Harvey (undisclosed), DL Jamaal Jarrett (undisclosed), RB Waymond Jordan (ankle), LB Anthony Beavers, Jr. (undisclosed), DL Floyd Boucard (undisclosed), K Caden Chittenden (undisclosed).

Iowa: QUESTIONABLE: LB Jaden Harrell (undisclosed), WR Jarriett Buie (undisclosed), OL Lucas Allgeyer (undisclosed), TE Addison Ostrenga (undisclosed).

USC’s Makai Lemon, left, and King Miller react after a TD against NW in the first half at the L.A. Memorial Coliseum. (Photo by Keith Birmingham, Pasadena Star-News/ SCNG)

What’s at stake? Iowa’s College Football Playoff hopes were virtually eliminated after a losing to Oregon 18-16 last weekend, but USC is very much still in contention to earn its first CFP bid. The Trojans came in at No. 17 when this week’s CFP rankings were released. If USC can earn a win over Iowa and beat high-flying Oregon next week, it should claim one of the at-large bids.

Who’s better? Iowa is on a 12-game losing streak against ranked opponents, but its style of offense and tough defense make for a challenging Trojan opponent. The Hawkeyes’ offensive line has started the same five players in every game this season and that’s allowed quarterback Mark Gronowski to score 12 rushing touchdowns, which ranks fourth among all FBS quarterbacks, and second of any player in the Big Ten. He’s a dangerous red zone threat on the ground.

Iowa is all about controlling the ball, grinding the clock and wearing down opposing defenses. The Hawkeyes rank 133rd of 136 teams nationally in passing yards per game. This is not, by any measure, an explosive offense. Iowa’s goal, week in and week out, is to keep opposing offenses off the field entirely.

Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz is the longest-tenured coach in all of college football, having led the Hawkeyes for the last 26 seasons. And over that time, his offensive philosophy has remained decidedly old school.

“They’re OK with going first, second and third down, all the way down the field,” defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn said. “It’s going to keep our offense off the field, and it’s going to wear us down. So from our standpoint, you’ve got to get [tackles for a loss] and you need to do something to get them behind the chains. You can’t just live in the third-and-short range all game.”

USC, ultimately, is the more well-rounded, higher-performing team, with more skill position talent for sure. But Iowa’s defense has allowed only four passing touchdowns, so running back King Miller (30) could be at center stage with dynamic quarterback Jayden Maiava playing a supporting role in the run game.

Matchup to watch: Iowa’s defense vs. USC head coach Lincoln Riley’s playbook, which can produce a score without much warning. Riley has not shied away from using trick plays as of late and drew admiration and ire from the college football world on a play in the Northwestern game that involved a fake punt and a jersey change.

He’s doubled down on his decisions in that game, even after a statement from the Big Ten Conference. The Hawkeyes’ defense rarely gives up chunk plays, so the Trojans may jump at the opportunity to use some creativity and perhaps even deception.

USC wins if: The Trojans will need to stop Iowa’s run game as best as possible while manufacturing rushing yards for themselves, especially in the red zone. The Hawkeyes have allowed teams to score 19 times in the red zone, but USC has scored either a touchdown or field goal on 42 of 45 red-zone attempts. The Trojans have been finishing strong thanks in part to kicker Ryon Sayeri, who has made 15 out of 16 field-goal attempts this season.

Big rain: It rarely rains on game day at the Coliseum, but that is by all accounts a certainty Saturday, with heavy showers in the forecast all weekend.

USC should be used to the inclement weather by now. It has already weathered the rain on two road trips, including an hours-long lightning delay at Purdue. Rain is also in the forecast for next week’s road game at Oregon.

“Unless it’s just a complete downpour,” Riley said, “we feel like we can function very close to normally.”

High stakes for Lincoln Riley: With just three weeks left in the college football season, Riley finds himself in a place he hasn’t been since his first year at USC. His Trojans are still within reach of the College Football Playoff in mid-November. Their fate is still in their hands: Win out from here, and Riley should have USC in the CFP for the first time.

The stakes are incredibly high. And Riley isn’t hiding that fact from his team as it prepares to face No. 21 Iowa Saturday. In fact, he says, he wants them to “embrace” the opportunity at hand.

“This game coming up this weekend, it’s not the same. It’s just not,” Riley said. “The more you win, the more important these become and the bigger the opportunities become. So our team is very well aware of that.”

Pressure hasn’t always brought out the best in Riley’s teams at USC. Last season, the Trojans blew five fourth-quarter leads and lost five of their last seven games in devastating fashion down the stretch. In 2023, they dropped four of five to close out the regular season.

Even the 2022 Caleb Williams Heisman run ended on sour notes: in the Pac-12 title game, USC lost a second time to Utah, this time with a playoff berth on the line, and the Trojans later disastrously flubbed the Cotton Bowl, losing 46-45 to Tulane.

Prediction: USC 27, Iowa 20. The explosive Trojans show their growth and toughness against a gritty Big Ten team, win again in the Coliseum, and add to their CFB playoff bid résumé before a huge game in Eugene.

ocregister.com / latimes.com

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