Cotton Bowl Prediction: Tulane and USC Face Off in AT&T Stadium
Trojans look to bounce back from Pac-12 title game loss with win in Arlington over AAC champion Green Wave.
Kane Webb (Athlon Sports) — USC announced to the world that it has returned to the top of the heap in 2022 by not only hiring Lincoln Riley away from Oklahoma but also taking several key players, including this year’s Heisman Trophy winner in Caleb Williams. Williams pretty much ran away with the award, and his only serious competition was Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker, who unfortunately went down with a season-ending injury. The Trojans then capped off the year with a Cotton Bowl bid and a top 12 recruiting class that included the nation’s No. 2 overall player, quarterback Malachi Nelson, who is only behind Arch Manning.
But before the Trojans turn their attention to building upon this season, they still have a very tough game against the Tulane Green Wave in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic. Even though Williams (and Riley) has stated he will be playing, there will be several players who sit out to focus on their NFL future and others who have left the team to seek transfer opportunities that will not be playing in the bowl. This leaves USC with a solid team, but a team that Tulane could beat rather easily if they don’t prepare or take the game seriously.
Williams will not have offensive linemen Andrew Vorhees nor center Brett Neilon when they play Tulane. This means Gino Quinones will be making his first start since Week 5 at left guard and Justin Dedich will be taking Neilon’s spot as the quarterback of the offensive line. In other words, the Heisman Trophy winner will be playing behind a makeshift offensive line against a team highly motivated to win their first major bowl since they played in the 1940 Sugar Bowl against Texas A&M — who coincidentally shared the national title with USC that year. Let’s take a look at the keys to this game.
Kickoff: Monday, Jan. 2 at 10 a.m. PT Where: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas) TV: ESPN Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial) Spread: USC -2 Tickets: As low as $8 on SITickets.com
When Tulane Has the Ball
Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt gave the Green Wave an early Christmas present this year when he and his center, Sincere Haynesworth, announced they would be returning for another year. Pratt is the key cog in the nation’s 21st-ranked scoring offense (35.2 ppg). Pratt has 25 touchdowns to only five interceptions and completes 64.5 percent of his passes. In other words, he’s an efficient passer who makes few mistakes.
Unlike most players who are efficient but don’t make many mistakes, Pratt isn’t what you would call “serviceable” because he’s much more than that. He spreads the ball around the field with seven different Tulane receivers or tight ends logging at least 200 receiving yards, and they have an astonishing 10 different receivers who are averaging more than 10 yards per reception. That will get the job done at any school.
Tulane head coach Willie Fritz is a rising star in the coaching profession, and it’s clear that he knows how to get consistency out of his guys. If there’s a thing that can beat USC nine out of 10 times, it’s consistent teams. Tulane shares that with Utah in that they’re both consistent and well-coached teams, and as long as they bring that efficient consistency with them to their efforts on the field, it’s not really hard to understand why this game is viewed as a toss-up, truly.
When USC Has the Ball
The primary responsibility for USC is to take care of Caleb Williams with an offensive line that is made up of various parts, some experienced and some without. The overall picture of USC’s offensive line is probably why the oddsmakers don’t feel comfortable making this anything more than a pick ’em. The Trojans had problems keeping Williams upright at the end of the year, and the beating he took in the Pac-12 Championship didn’t help much. While Tulane won’t be fielding the same kind of size and speed the Utes can, they are still a very talented team that believes in their coach and believes in their ability to beat any team.
The Trojans have a number of weapons at their disposal on the offensive side of the ball, and it won’t be surprising if Lincoln Riley gives some of the younger guys more playing time in the bowl game as they look to see what they have for the coming year. The offense hasn’t been the problem for USC in 2022, and it’s unlikely that Tulane will be able to completely shut it down, but if the Wave can keep this game close until the fourth quarter, they certainly have an offense that can score in high volume. Pratt might not be Williams, but he’s sporting his own 5:1 touchdown to interception ratio, and that’s nothing to sneeze at for the junior signal-caller.
Variety is probably the key to success in this game. If Williams and Riley can keep the Tulane defense guessing at where they’re going with the ball, then USC likely has an easier day. The problems tend to arise when USC doesn’t have another receiver who can get involved with the game, leading to Williams focusing on trying to find Jordan Addison over and over again. And he won’t even have Addison in this game, as the Pitt transfer is rehabbing an ankle injury. The running game can make Williams’ day easier if they can get going as Tulane doesn’t have the greatest run defense.
Final Analysis
USC is an awfully hard team to predict when it comes to bowls. It’s been a hard team to peg down this year, as well. The head says USC should win this game, but the heart feels like Tulane is destined for a magical season and the inconsistency along the offensive line for the Trojans seems like a poison pill against the consistency that has been Tulane. Only one thing appears likely and that is if it’s a close game, Tulane probably wins.
Tulane’s only losses this year come by a combined 10 points, and the Green Wave avenged one of those losses in the AAC Championship Game against UCF. The other loss was to Southern Miss, and though it was only by a field goal, USC’s lone loss on the year came to a really talented and physical Utah team — and Tulane is certainly not that. Just as easily as a case can be made for Tulane winning this game, it’s even easier to do the same with the Trojans.
Confidence doesn’t set in either way this game is analyzed. But someone has to win that game and it’s likely going to be the Trojans. While Tulane is extremely consistent and has quality players, it lacks the true standouts that can keep pace with USC over four quarters and will have to play mistake-free football against one of the best defenses in the collegiate game for 2022 in terms of takeaways. It’s hard to see Tulane slugging it out over four quarters if USC comes ready and prepared, but that’s a big if.
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