One of his earliest memories in collegiate football, Riley recounted in early December, was a 2004 cross-country trip to San Diego when he was a student assistant to the late Mike Leach at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders faced Cal there in the Holiday Bowl, back in the Golden Bears’ heyday, led by none other than one-time Green Bay Packers destroyer Aaron Rodgers – and came out on top in a 45-31 barnburner, as then-Texas Tech defensive line coach Ruffin McNeill called the offense “explosive.”

“To this day, all the different bowls and big games, all that I’ve been able to coach in, that’s still one of my favorite memories,” Riley reflected in early December.

His career took off shortly thereafter, eventually following McNeill to East Carolina, named a savant at Oklahoma and then a savior at USC. But almost exactly 19 years later, after he watched Leach outgun Rodgers, Riley leads USC back into San Diego in a position he’s rarely faced across a trailblazing rise in the coaching business: failure.

It has shown, in this particular bowl game placement after a 7-5 season, this trip to San Diego feeling like a strange afterthought in no man’s land rather than the exclamation to a season. Just a few steadfast villagers remain on 2023’s Disappointment Island as more than 20 Trojans will skip the Holiday Bowl with a mind to the future.

Quarterback Caleb Williams built himself a lavish boat and set sail for NFL draft waters. Starting running back MarShawn Lloyd and wide receiver Brenden Rice followed. A swarm of other contributors, like Domani Jackson and Tackett Curtis, tossed life rafts into the shark-infested waters of the transfer portal.

In that vein, through a six-week period when USC has watched both regular-season and bowl games without playing themselves, Riley has set about completely reconfiguring the program after two years that haven’t quite amounted to the expectations that came with his move to Los Angeles. He promised USC would play great defense; he’s hired three coaches with college defensive coordinator experience. He wanted to get bigger and stronger defensively entering the Big Ten; he’s brought in an army of defensive difference-makers through the transfer portal and the 2024 recruiting class.

One cannot completely start over, however, with chapters in the present left unfinished. And Wednesday night’s Holiday Bowl matchup with Louisville, really, is more importantly a preview to 2024 than a close to 2023. Quarterback Miller Moss will get his first start after three years. A horde of young receivers will have auditions for prominent roles in spring practice, while defensive veterans like Jaylin Smith, Mason Cobb and Jacobe Covington will essentially re-audition for rotational roles for 2024. And co-interim defensive coordinators Brian Odom and Shaun Nua will be coaching for their jobs – either with USC or on a different staff.

When USC has the ball

The Holiday Bowl hasn’t even arrived, and it’s already grown tiresome to say it’s Miller Time. But it is, indeed, Miller Time.

“He understands the opportunity that’s here,” Riley said of Moss at the Holiday Bowl coaches’ press conference on Tuesday. “I mean, he’s been – you could argue he’s been waiting three years for an opportunity like this.”

Moss won’t have Rice or Lloyd around him in his first start, but he will still have a variety of weapons to throw to in an intriguing watch. With Rice gone, tight end Lake McRee hurt and receivers like Mario Williams and Michael Jackson III transferring, expect plenty of targets for freshmen Zachariah Branch and Duce Robinson. Breakout names to watch, too, are freshmen Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane, both of whom have earned high praise from teammates and coaches across bowl practices.

When Louisville has the ball

The Cardinals’ most notable offensive weapon is senior quarterback Jack Plummer (no, no relation to former NFL QB Jake Plummer), who enters the Holiday Bowl having racked up 3,063 yards and 21 touchdowns through the air. USC is familiar with him from his 2022 season with Cal, where he shredded the Trojans’ defense for 406 yards in a 41-35 loss.

Who’s better? 

Louisville. Maybe this would be different if USC wasn’t going to be handing a host of snaps to unproven offensive commodities, but the Cardinals had a better season and bring in a more cohesive roster. Riley said himself at a pregame press conference that it’ll be a “tremendous challenge.” Don’t completely discount the Trojans here, though: Moss is one of the best backup quarterbacks in college football, and there’s still talent bursting out the seams in Riley’s scheme.

Matchup to watch

The most interesting player in this game – by far – is Moss. But the most important matchup is Louisville’s running game against the remnants of a USC defense already shredded by the ground game in 2023. Cardinals back Jawhar Jordan, who ran for 13 touchdowns and more than 1,100 yards this year, is out for the Holiday Bowl after a procedure on his knee. That leaves senior Isaac Guerendo, who excelled in a complementary role by averaging 6 yards per carry, to a majority of the Cardinals’ touches. This is an important prove-it game for potential linebacker returners like Cobb and Eric Gentry.

USC wins if: Moss throws for 250-plus yards, tallies multiple touchdowns and manages the game effectively … USC’s run defense holds Louisville to sub-150 yards on the ground … young offensive linemen like Mason Murphy, Alani Noa and Elijah Paige allow three or fewer sacks of Moss.

Prediction: USC 34, Louisville 31. Moss is ready. He’s been waiting for his shot. Don’t be surprised if he steps up and leads a game-winning drive.

ocregister.com

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