No. 15 Michigan at USC: It’s critical that the Trojans get back on track against the one-loss Wolverines. USC left Ann Arbor last season battered and bruised, its narrow 27-24 September loss to Michigan having laid bare the program’s most pressing concerns upon joining the Big Ten. In a physical, old-fashioned Big Ten battle, Michigan was simply bigger and stronger at the line of scrimmage, while the Trojans looked largely overwhelmed.
What’s at stake, injuries, who’s better, key matchup to watch, TV info and prediction for Saturday’s Big Ten game
Michigan’s Will Johnson breaks up a pass intended for USC TE Lake McRee in the first half Sept. 21, 2024, in Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
No. 15 Michigan (4-1 overall, 2-0 Big Ten) at USC (4-1, 2-1), 4:30 p.m. PT Saturday, L.A. Memorial Coliseum, TV/radio:NBC (Ch. 4)/ESPN 710
Line: USC by 2.5
Haley Sawyer (OC Register); Ryan Kartje (LA Times) —
NOTABLE INJURIES
USC: OUT: CB Chasen Johnson (undisclosed), K Caden Chittenden (undisclosed), Kilian O’Connor (lower body); QUESTIONABLE: LB Matai Tagoa’i (undisclosed), RB Harry Dalton III (undisclosed), CB Alex Graham (undisclosed), RB Bryan Jackson (undisclosed), OL Elijah Paige (undisclosed), CB Prophet Brown (undisclosed).
Michigan: OUT: LB Jaydon Hood (undisclosed), RB D. Johnson (undisclosed), WR I’Marion Stewart (undisclosed), OL Giovanni El-Hadi (undisclosed), OL Brady Norton (undisclosed), OL Andrew Babalola (undisclosed); QUESTIONABLE: RB Micah Ka’apana (undisclosed), QB Davis Warren (knee), DL Devon Baxter (undisclosed); PROBABLE: TE Hogan Hansen (undisclosed).
What’s at stake? USC wants to bounce back from a 34-32 loss to Illinois – its first of the season — as it begins a difficult three-game stretch this weekend against Michigan. After that, it’s road games against Notre Dame and Nebraska with a bye week in between. The outcome of these games will have implications on the CFP, recruiting and possibly even head coach Lincoln Riley’s future.
Riley is 30-15 in his fourth season at USC – former Trojans head coach Clay Helton was 31-14 in his first 45 games. This stretch of games is an opportunity for Riley and the Trojans to get a signature win and continue to pump life into a vintage rivalry after last season’s brutal 27-24 loss to the Wolverines in their Big Ten debut.
MICH RB Kalel Mullings sprints away from Trojans on his 63-yd run during the Wolverines’ 27-24 comeback victory over USC last season. The crucial long gain set up the game-winning TD with less than a minute remaining. The Wolverines rushed for 290 total yds while holding USC’s offense in check for much of the game.
Who’s better? Michigan is on a four-game win streak including Big Ten wins over Nebraska and Wisconsin. Their last loss was a 24-13 defeat at the hands of No. 18 Oklahoma. The Wolverines have recovered from some consequential injuries, meaning left guard Giovanni El-Hadi and tight end Hogan Hansen will likely return to the field this weekend and give the offense a boost. USC will have a new starting center in J’Onre Reed, who prepared for the role in the bye week after an injury to Kilian O’Connor.
Riley relies heavily on the center to help orchestrate his offense. Reed will have his hands full with his first start coming against one of the better fronts in the Big Ten.
“J’Onre has played a lot of football. He’s played in a lot of big games,” Riley said. “I’ve had times where I lost centers before. I don’t know that I’ve ever had as accomplished of a second option. So I don’t expect that to be an issue for us.”
This game should have a little bit of everything. Michigan thrives on a bruising run game that’s among the best in the conference in terms of yards per game, while USC has a skilled, explosive offense led by the fantastic combo of QB Jayden Maiava and battery-mate Makai Lemon.
The defenses are neck-in-neck statistically in the Big Ten, making for two fairly evenly matched opponents.
Matchup to watch: Michigan running back Justice Haynes vs. the USC defensive line. The Trojans will want to earn the right to rush Wolverines freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, which means shutting down hard-running Haynes first. That’s no easy task, considering he’s the Big Ten’s leading rusher (over 100 yds per game; five explosive runs of over 40 yds) and the Trojans’ defense had its worst game of the season two weeks ago in Illinois.
Underwood hasn’t been much of a threat through the air, but during his past three games, he has rushed for 187 yards and three touchdowns.
“I’ve just been impressed when you watch Week 1 to Week 2 to Week 3 to Week 4, you see him getting better and better each week,” D’Anton Lynn said. “I think he’s going to be a hell of a player.”
USC used the bye week to get back to basics in the trenches, focus on its goal of starting fast on Saturday, and return to the defensive prominence that was apparent in the first four games of the season against lesser opponents.
Lynn said he had no idea why USC’s front looked so flustered from the start against Illinois, while linebacker Eric Gentry said the situation was “the worst of the worst that we could have played.”
“It all starts with the front,” Lynn said. “We have to be able to stop the run. We have to be able to affect the quarterback. When you’re not doing those things, it makes it hard to protect other areas of the field. It all starts right there.”
USC wins if: The Trojans will need to maintain composure from top to bottom, especially late in the game and prove themselves on both sides of the trenches. Illinois was a winnable game in spite of the injuries that USC dealt with, but everything unraveled in the fourth quarter due to a pass interference penalty and play-calling which has been criticized for being too aggressive and ignoring game clock considerations.
“I think we’re in a much different place on the line than we were at this time last year, with some of our depth and the improvements we’ve made,” Riley said. “We’ve got a really good group. They’ve got a really good group.”
Injury update: Riley said starting left tackle Elijah Paige has “a chance” but is “not a shoo-in” to suit up against Michigan as he continues to be hampered by a nagging injury that he’s fought for more than a month.
If Paige is unable to play, redshirt freshman right tackle Justin Tauanuu would presumably get another start on the left side after he gave up a team-high six pressures during the loss to Illinois.
USC OL Justin Tauanuu blocks MICH ST DL Ben Roberts on Sept. 20 at the Coliseum. (Jessie Alcheh / AP)
Toughness will win this game: “At the end of the day, no ifs, ands, or buts about it: The toughest team is going to win this game. Not the team that looks the prettiest,” Michigan defensive line coach Lou Esposito told reporters this week. “It’s the toughest team that’s going to win this game, and that’s what it’s going to take to win on the road.”
Prediction: USC 27, Michigan 24. Michigan’s brutal physicality is going to make this one difficult, but this USC team, especially on offense, is better than last year’s, and the revenge factor plus home field advantage tilt the outcome in USC’s favor.
The direction of USC’s season hinges on this crucial game.
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